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Showing content with the highest reputation on 22/11/12 in all areas

  1. First I have to say Hello! New to this forum, and found this topic while I was searching for some stratosphere info on the web. Thank you Google. Quite a debate I must say, on a real high level. I wont interfere with your debates, so I am just going to share my thoughts occasionally. My first post post might be a bit sluggish, but I promise I will try to get in the overall flow of this topic. Things seem to be on a roll (no pun intended) against the polar vortex, or at least that's how I see it. Better defined easterlies starting to appear. Not that surprising, given the High building
    13 points
  2. 5 points
  3. I haven't really had much time to look at the charts earlier but have picked out the best ones tonight. So we are seeing a wavering wave 2 event that is causing the vortex to split at around day 8-9 right into the middle stratosphere. http://wekuw.met.fu-...var=ha2&lng=eng If one follows the charts above, we can see the wave reduce and then increase in intensity. It is the second wave increase that splits the polar vortex - this was suspected all along when the split was first forecast. This split is very much tropospherically induced - mainly as a result of the strong ridging on the Pa
    5 points
  4. Hello. This year I decided to make a seasonal "outlook" of my own. I guess its a statistical forecast, because it is based on reanalysis. This is basically just a composite or a blend of the winters in the past. I used certain winters and blended them together. I have chosen the years and months, based on the overall global setup and similarities in the oceanic and atmospheric features. The graphics were made on October 29, when I finished my analysis process and first published on November 1st on a weather forum in my country. So lets say I have 1 month "lead time" before the start of the f
    1 point
  5. This is an extract from the conclusion of the Gerber paper. Looking at the CPC charts at the high levels kept seeing random pockets of higher temps and wondered why they appeared almost in isolation and completely randomly? Not sure if this is correct explanation so please correct my thinking if am off on one here. The theoretical work of Charney and Drazin (1961) suggests that a stronger vortex will limit Rossby wave propagation into the stratosphere, thus reducing the amplitude of the Brewer– Dobson circulation. In the lower stratosphere this provides the correct intuition: the ne
    1 point
  6. Its my original thoughts using soalr/lunar cyclic effects. I'm not convinced its saying early end to cold now and Dec has been hard to call, just posted original thoughts and see how they pan out. Its looking a very interesting start to winter regards BFTP
    1 point
  7. Welcome Recretos. We look forward to your input.
    1 point
  8. Just a post to confirm what has been said on the model thread. Last nights post still stands, regarding any mild interlude. All signals are pointing to the polar vortex reforming and displacing to the east Atlantic/ Eurasion side of the pole. Here is the growing wave 1 signal: http://wekuw.met.fu-...var=ha1&lng=eng And here is it's (forecast) affect right down at 70hPa With such a displacement one could see a North Atlantic ridge at the very least with a west based -ve NAO
    1 point
  9. Hi P.P.! I'm always aware of the number of 'lurkers' who flit through the threads and I do try and be as clear about my understanding of things as I can . LG makes me feel that this can be a bit of a fail at times! For a number of years now I've been talking about 'when Mother N. takes over the warming' as I've always been mindful of the extent of the potential Carbon cycle (from the size it has operated at over recent geological past) and that any warming will just bring part of that 'hibernating' cycle back into play. This does all depend on the relationship between temperature and GHG's
    1 point
  10. Thanks to catch up TV I've finally seen this now and I thought it was pretty good actually!
    1 point
  11. Time to start playing catch up for Scandinavia me thinks still a bit further to go tho http://www.yr.no/pla...sinki/long.html
    1 point
  12. I would recommend a book that touches on this subject, "The Dance of Air and Sea; How oceans , weather and life link together", by Arnold H Taylor..
    1 point
  13. The Met Office, regardless of whether there is a cold spell or not, are just covering their a**e. The general public and the more sensationalist media will tear them to shreds if they speak in overly certain terms and the outcome doesn't match. Suffice it to say they'll be informing central government of any potential risks coming up and should dangerous conditions be much closer they'll make these thoughts public. I pity the Met at times because they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. Anyone with a genuine undertanding of meteorology is aware by now that we have a substantial risk
    1 point
  14. Morning, just a quick summary, but it's looking good!...Few charts that stand out; http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha1_f240.gif - Wave 1 really gets going by D10 from yesterday 12Z ECM. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.gif - Signs of Wave 2 making a come back as well still. The broader pattern towards a split by the end of November into early December remains and the warming event continues to grow as well. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf30f240.gif http://
    1 point
  15. Its from exacta ( james madden) so the more unreadable it is, the better !!
    1 point
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