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Showing most liked content on 16/05/12 in Posts

  1. 1 like
    I’ve been asked in the past about the demographics of independence. Looking into this I was surprised to find that support for the SNP is really unchanged across the social spectrum – that’s quite something. In the last MORI poll within error the support for the SNP is the same in a council estate as it is in Morningside. A national party? It seems so… Anyway back to independence… In terms of wealth, support is strongest among the poor/working class and weakest among the wealthy (the wealthy vote SNP for competence...). Bit of a headache that for Labour – their traditional voters support independence. In fact that is probably where the SNP have been stealing voters from them in a big way. Age is quite interesting.. From the ages of 25-60, the Yes vote generally outweighs the No vote by a good margin. Only the 18-24 and over 65 groups are saying No for now. We must look at these separately as the causes of this are quite different. Support is actually highest in the 55-64 group, yet plunges suddenly in the over 65 group. Reason? Hmmm, well it can’t be directly about worries over pensions etc as those who would be worried about this most would be those struggling to get by. However, they are strongly supportive as we have seen based on social glass/wealth democraphics. So what is it? Well, these people remember the war and its immediate aftermath. They remember the post-war consensus when support for the union was at its peak. The baby boomers do not; they remember the swinging 60’s and flower power. They grew up watching an empire in decline, with no memories of its peak and it/the unity two WW’s brought. They were the ones that voted Yes in 1979, were betrayed by Labour then got hammered by Thatcher for having the audacity to vote for devolution. They are my parents. That would be my conclusion. So what about the 18-24’s? The SNP want to reduce the voting age to 16 for the referendum. Why we might ask why if this group are saying No at the moment? Well, they’re not saying No actually; they are just Unsure. As can be seen, there is a lovely correlation between age and Unsure %’s; the older the age group the less Unsure’s we see. At this point it is worth remembering that Unsure does not equal No. I know unionists like to group these with No, but that is incorrect. Unsure’s like the idea of independence but are unsure about what it would mean. If you don’t like the idea, you say No. I’d imagine the young are not thinking too much about it – politics is sadly something the young normally don’t take much of an interest in…. The SNP want to target this group because if those Unsures can be convinced of the benefits of independence they will become Yes’s, go out and vote and it will be a done deal. After all, they will be the independence generation. The over 65’s are set in their ways are not for turning. As I’ve mentioned before, my prediction is for ~62.5% Yes, as per Y-Y in 1997. The reasons for this are numerous, but based on just the Y/N poll data you can see why. Add the unsure’s to the Yes and you get something like this value as a running average. In the age demographics you can see this clearly; the 18-60 groups Yes+Unsures give this value clearly across the spectrum. Of course some Unsures may vote No, but then some current No’s will vote yes. Based on polls going back to 1998, the hardcore No is at most 35%. The highest Yes shares polled was back in 1998 at ~55%. Combine these two and you get 61%. The Devo max thing is the clincher on this; 70% want devo max minimum and if that’s not on the 40-45% Yes’s will join a majority of Unsures but want devo max’s to give the comfortably over 60% majority. The latest status quo is 24% and the Yes to independence even if devo max is on the ballot is 39%. If we consider these as the hardcore, then that’s 62% Yes once again…. I could bring up all sorts of other examples such as government approval rating but no need. My tip would be to visit the Bookies and see what odds they’ll give you on a 60-65% yes vote in the referendum. You should make a good few bob if you get in now. Closer to the time, as the Unsure’s continue to turn to Yes as they have been, the odds will be much less favourable…. Anyhoo, on a related topic but probably more interesting than my waffling about poll stats - here’s Scotland’s FM being interviewed on the US Late Late Show the other night (on CBS just after the Late Show with David Letterman). http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwKSxjiwZps ---------------------------------------------------------------- EDIT. Author Irvine Welsh on the independence issue. He hits the nail on the head just perfectly in his own way. No need to get dressed up for the occasion; didn't add much to the opposition anyway.
  2. 1 like
    UK Outlook for Monday 21 May 2012 to Wednesday 30 May 2012: The new week should start rather cold for the time of year, but fine and dry with some sunshine across northern parts of the UK, mainly Scotland and Northern Ireland. Further south, more unsettled at first with showers or longer spells of rain, these perhaps thundery near the southeast, and quite breezy. Towards the end of the week, the drier, finer weather should transfer to more southern and eastern parts, with a chance of some cloudier conditions and rain returning to western parts. Temperatures by this time should be close to average, but to begin with, a little below average around the southeast. Probably staying similar for the rest of the period, with a chance of rain in the west, drier conditions in the east, and average temperatures prevailing. Updated: 1144 on Wed 16 May 2012 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
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    Mercury soars in southern Spain Temperatures more than 15 degrees above average have led to a heat warning for some parts of southern Spain. BBC Weather's Nina Ridge reports. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/18075530 Live weather cams are showing clear blue skies with no wind helping the temperatures soar to over 40c in some loactions http://www.restauran...ms/webcamI.html http://www.restauran.../webcamIII.html Fuerteventura is currently at around 37c right on the coast
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    The expression on the other dog!
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    Hi all just to keep the BBQ thread bumped up list i have found news artical relating to the tornado that hit the caravan park . http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/1482301.stm
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    Waiting between Bishop Stortford and Harlow, to catch speeding drivers, a Police Officer sees a car puttering along at 11MPH. Says he to himself: "This driver is just as dangerous as a speeder!" So he turns on his lights and pulls the driver over. Approaching the car, he notices that there are five old ladies, two in the front seats and three in the back...wide eyed and white as ghosts. The driver, obviously confused, says to him "Officer, I don't understand, I was doing exactly the speed limit! What seems to be the problem?" "Ma'am," the officer replies, "you weren't speeding, but you should know that driving slower than the speed limit can also be a danger to other drivers." "Slower than the speed limit? No sir, I was doing the speed limit exactly...eleven miles an hour!" ....the old woman says a bit proudly. The Police officer, trying to contain a chuckle explains to her that M11 is the road number, not the speed limit. A bit embarrassed, the woman grins and thanks the officer for pointing out her error. "But before I let you go, Ma'am, I have to ask...Is everyone in this car OK? These women seem awfully shaken, and they haven't made a sound this whole time," the officer asks. "Oh, they'll be all right in a minute officer. We've just come off the A120."
  7. 1 like
    Why Couldn't This April Ended Like This? or better still like this.
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