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  1. 31 likes
    A surfer missing in Sussex has been found alive. Great. Now they can send the moron a bill for the callout for his stupidity.
  2. 24 likes
    Goodmorning peeps Hope everyone is ok and a happy Wednesday to you all. A gloomy morning in Walthamstow nothing that resembles like a mid winters day it actually does not feel drastically cold. So here we are it's 22nd January today and no doubt most of us coldies are exhausted now having eagerly waited since or before the start of winter for some decent cold and snow. The eerie silence in here tells the whole story and deep down we all know that our time for this season is getting closer and closer to saying goodbye to this winter. Alas it was not probably meant to be this year, as a lot of posters have already said a lot of outside factors have just made us very unlucky. We have still got February left but deep down I know a lot of you like me have got that feeling that the hope of seeing something decent and snowey is fading day by day. The days are already getting longer and soon the sun will be gaining more strength. There is no sign in the output to suggest we are going to get out of this misery pattern soon. Having said this patterns have changed quickly and suddenly and who knows something dramatic may happen as we enter the last half of winter, but we would I think now need a dramatic event to turn things around. i have actually blocked the rest of this winter out of my mind now, as life goes on and dwelling on something that was not meant to be will not change it. Maybe in another 8 months the factors for next winter will look more promising. Not to add more gloom but chins up peeps as I said who knows February may have a final sting but if not then there is always next winter to look forward to. Hope you all have a great day regards
  3. 21 likes
    The UKMO now the flattest solution after being one of the most amplified before . The wheels came off as early as T72 hrs upstream with the more offshore and weaker ne USA low . In the grand scheme of things these early differences aren’t going to be a game changer as we are talking about really just an extra day of colder conditions before the high sinks . The winter season if we can call it that has been one of any decent amplification shown even at day 6 range not managing to verify . Overall after this colder blip or snap depending on which model is correct the outlook is dismal for cold . Normally the PV weakens as you head into February but this one looks like it’s just downed a bottle of steroids ! I should add I’d be very dubious of any colder PM flows shown at longer range with a raging PV . This is a model bias especially of the GFS when nearer the time the jet will be corrected further north . Unless we see a big change in the PV then the output past day 6 is to be blunt utter crap for cold !
  4. 20 likes
    It looks better again later in the run, fingers crossed we see some wintry weather next week.
  5. 19 likes
    Not marginal at all here now. Very heavy, massive flakes. Happy bear!
  6. 19 likes
    89mph on my roof mounted station in Dinorwic North West Wales. I’m a camera man for the BBC and ive seen my fair share of extreme environments, without exaggeration its like a hurricane out there. Rain is very heavy and very persistent. My house is 977ft ASL Not the worst i’ve seen here mind....yet
  7. 19 likes
    A few photos from this afternoon, taken at Glengavel, above Strathaven, just over 250 metres above sea-level. I wasn't able to get out until mid-afternoon, so thawing on the lower ground was well-advanced by the time, but there was plenty of wet snow around higher up. Felt pretty raw as there were showers of icy rain, sleet and one heavy burst of wet snow in the hour or so I spent there.
  8. 19 likes
    There appears to be an increasing tendency in readers posts, to be ignoring what is happening in the here and now, and instead looking at what might happen in 10 days time, which always perplexes me.. sign of the time I think.. no-one seems to be 'in the present'... With this in mind, we do have a change on the cards from Sunday, for the north some what I would call proper cold air for 2-3 days about to move in, sub 528 dam air, thicknesses right side of marginal for snow I think down to quite low levels under any trough features which are being programmed - good to look at the FAX charts in these situations. Indeed first time this season I've bothered to look at them... Alas longer term its a shortlived polar maritime airstream before the omi-present azores high ridges back into the UK. Feels good to be able to mention the snow word.. Those away from the north and north west, I sense will not be interested in the upcoming spell.. but its good to see a change in airstreams from the perpetual tropical maritime, or anticyclonic gloom.. We saw similiar synoptics mid December, and they produced low level snow here.. 2 inches.
  9. 18 likes
    I must say, it's nice for someone to quote a post of mine which has positivity in the response Yes we had some heavy snow here, and it stuck...for about an hour haha.
  10. 17 likes
    Good to see you back NWS, and that's a big improvement from Exeter! There's plenty to get excited about from the 12z ensembles, and within the next 10 day's... I'm gerrin a tad excited... There's a slight stutter appearing in me typing hand...
  11. 16 likes
    Came in from work to a happy dog, who'd spent the afternoon watching me out the window, asked him if he wanted a walk...
  12. 16 likes
    My thought on tomorrow and how the models compare to it: Storm Ciara is being powered by a very powerful jet stream, meaning that the closer the storm crawls to the UK, the more intense it will become. It will cause chaos almost everywhere across the UK, hence the amber warning issued over the majority of the country by the Met Office. The likelihoods of this storm will include falling trees, tiles from roofs and other buildings, incredibly large waves near the coasts, and traffic on the roads. If you have seen the latest run of the sea level pressure, then you can tell it will be quite a nasty storm by looking at the isobars. Severe gales are possible over the coasts of the SE. These gusts at their highest will range from 60-70mph, and even 80mph+ possible. Waves of 2 meters high are even possible too. Even inland, it is still expected to be extremely windy, with gusts at their highest ranging from 40-60mph, with even 70mph+ possible. However, it is not just the wind. The rain totals are expected to be high, with the rain starting tonight over parts of Northern England and Scotland. The rain there is expected to be slow-moving and will definitely cause disruption, especially places like the roads. Flooding will also be possible over those areas. Everywhere across the UK is expected to receive some heavy rain, although I think it will be down to radar watching for tracking this heavy rain and where it will cause some impacts and disruption. Looking at the BBC's rain graphics underneath their forecast, it looks like there could be some little squally features possible, especially one over Northern England/Midlands at midday, and another squally feature that moves SE across Southern England.* Saturday evening/overnight On Saturday evening/overnight, the heavy rain will start to be visible over Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England, and the heavy rain will start to creep in over Wales. Some of this heavy rain will turn to snow over the hills of Scotland, Northern England and Wales, which could cause disruption already, along with the strong winds. The winds will gradually start to become stronger, with gusts already reaching 50-60mph along the coasts of Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and gusts of 30-40mph inland. The band of heavy rain that should be over parts of Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland will become slow moving, causing a lot more disruption. The temperatures in Southern England on Saturday evening and into overnight will range from 5 - 9c, and will range from -2 - 8c in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Along with the strong winds and heavy rain (or snow over the hills), it will feel a few degrees below than what the temperature actually is. Sunday morning On Sunday morning, the heavy rain that was over Northern England and Scotland would of reached almost every part of the British Isles by now, along with the strong winds. The strong winds on Sunday morning will start to kick in for SE coasts, where the waves would start to become very high. The heavy rain would still be over Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and probably wouldn't stop raining for a while. The wind gusts wouldn't of changed very much, with coastal areas reaching 50-60mph, and the gusts inland would reach 40-50mph. As well as the temperatures, they wouldn't of changed much either, with the temperatures in Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland ranging from 0-11c and ranging from 7-13c in Southern England. Sunday afternoon On Sunday afternoon, some of the heavy rain/snow that was over Scotland and Northern Ireland would of cleared away, although behind the heavy band of rain, is scattered, blustery showers. These heavy showers could turn sleety/snowy over the hills of Scotland. The heavy rain over England will continue, with the possibility of flooding. In some places the rain will start to pep up, especially over high ground, and will cause problems/disruption. As I said earlier, I saw on the BBC's rain graphic a sort of squally feature that tracks over Northern England and the Midlands. If this is the case, and there is a squall line over the area, then expect a lot of rainfall in a short period of time. However, the rain isn't the only thing that's pepping up though. The wind gusts will certainly start to pep up, especially in coastal regions, where 60-70mph is guaranteed, and 80mph+ is possible in some areas. For the temperatures, they will be above average, with Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland ranging from 2-12c, and Southern England ranging from 8-14c. 15c could also be possible in one or two areas. Sunday evening On Sunday evening, the bands of heavy rain over Southern and Northern England will eventually clear. Although once the heavy rain clears, it will lead to some blustery, scattered showers, which could turn wintry over the hills. Once again on the BBC's rain graphics, another squall feature (perhaps the same one that was over the Midlands) tracks over Southern England, producing some heavy rain in a short space of time. Over in Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland, there will still be some scattered and blustery showers, with once again the chance of some of them turning sleety/snowy. It will still be very windy in coastal regions, with 60-70mph gusts, and perhaps even 80mph+. It will still be very windy inland, with gusts ranging from 40-60mph on Sunday evening, and perhaps reaching 70mph. Some of the heavy rain and wind gusts will still linger into the evening and into the night in the far SE. Temperatures in the evening should range from 2-11c in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and 9-14c in England and Wales. Other info I don't think this has been mentioned by any other forecasters, so this probably won't happen, but some places might see a chance of some lightning strikes. I think this because currently one of the bands of rain from Storm Ciara is currently producing lightning off the coast of Western Scotland. Also because it reminds of when Ex Humberto in September last year, when the storm bought milder air and also had a few storms embedded into it. *Screenshots of BBC's rain graphics about a possible squall line moving through: So, for a summary, it is expected to be windy, with gale force winds at times, along with very heavy rain. A miserable day to come tomorrow for the people who like dry and fine weather. It looks like a quite a nasty storm incoming.
  13. 16 likes
    The ECM clusters didn't really pick up on this potential northerly incursion last week, and tbh they still aren't generally as punchy as the op runs: Only the op run cluster has that trough directly to the south of us, which would shut out the Atlantic for longer and bring a genuine risk of snow for all. Having said that, all clusters agree on at least a short spell of northerly influence, so high confidence in a cold end to next week now, even if a generally drier one away from susceptible coasts. Further ahead, this morning's clusters seem keen to flatten the high over us, which could trap colder air within for a longer period of time depending upon orientation. The T366 (D14) chart, although reintroducing a westerly component, looks ripe for a fresh attempt at a North Atlantic High. My view of weather history is that if you can achieve a certain pattern once, you've a much greater chance of it repeating soon after. And just to round off ... there was a stella wintery cluster in last night's ensembles. Cluster 5 is a textbook snow set-up with low pressure hitting an easterly draw. It only had 13% of the runs, so low chances, but it will be interesting to watch if the cluster reappears any time soon. All in all, wintry prospects definitely on the up now, and February could be a very different month.
  14. 15 likes
    Just had a look at the GEFS 6z postage stamps and they show an increasing chance of snow as next week progresses, especially from midweek which was also the case with the 0z... could next week turn into the best period of the winter so far for cold / snow starved coldies?...everything crossed!!
  15. 15 likes
    @Kirkcaldy Weather the Euro4 should get a 400 year jail term for how useless it has become at predicting snow. Road trip today, perfect conditions at Glencoe: Car pics too: I'll be back later to bore you all to death by holiday snap
  16. 15 likes
    Almighty crack of forked lightning in the valley, just as I was standing at the window. As the snow and graupel came down in buckets. Don't see that very often.
  17. 15 likes
    People seem to be more obsessed by the warning than the storm itself!
  18. 15 likes
    GFS at last in line with old GEFS. Most coherent SSW signal of the season so far - perhaps. Needs cementing as a signal, but this is the best chart in weeks. Given lag, any cold impacts would be last week of Feb and into March assuming a split and assuming favourable placement of vortex remains. Given collapse of the MJO signal and strength of the sub tropical high belt at present this is the only raft setting sail from the 2019/20 winter shipwreck....
  19. 15 likes
    I've got a few things for you, all from 1 run on the GEFS - we haven't seen images like these for 2 months... Might lead to nothing but still shows a window of possibility for something that until hasn't existed since November.
  20. 13 likes
    ECM clusters - more of the same generally. Confirmation of how unsettled this weekend is with those very tight lines - I think we've been lucky not to have had it worse, actually, one of those late developing lows could easily have occured nearer us. Later next week - well there's the promise the Atlantic ridge will nudge a little higher, but this could easily flatten back to square one: Further out to the end of the month - with heights finally rising further west and a strong signal for a Scandi trough, you never know, a northerly might just squeeze in:
  21. 13 likes
    Still heavy snow in braemar. 5 foot drifts on the site, wind is blowing from the southwest, which is the way the shed faces.....where the snow plough and shovels are....
  22. 13 likes
    The usual moaning on here where some are incapable of acknowledging something unless it's happened in their actual garden or, at worst, the next street. It baffles me why so many feel the need to do this 'non-event over hyped' garbage. It's often combined with faintly frothing rants at the Met Office, maybe because the Met Office is full of clever scientists who make their living through their talents. Unless, perish the thought, the critics are attention seeking
  23. 13 likes
    Some dafties parked their cars foolishly at Riverside in Dundee
  24. 13 likes
    As a rule cold charts don’t verify during winter 2019/20.
  25. 13 likes
    Looking at the radar it seems to be heading our way for a change...currently huge flakes falling its covering the ground really qulckly. Its snawing like its never snawed before...chucking it doon..!!!
  26. 13 likes
    So which part of Scotland looks least likely to see any snow over the next day or 2? Yup, chez HC. And I've only got myself to blame, buying a full set of Weatherproofs. And by the time I get home at the end of the week, it'll be pithing down. Bitter? Well only slightly...
  27. 13 likes
    I'm liking the 12z ensembles, very much plenty of eye candy... Here's some I've just picked from the warehouse with the forklift. Can guarantee Winter will begin just as its meant to be ending... Let's refrain from ramping though...
  28. 12 likes
    Chin up folks there is always March... #desperatetimes
  29. 12 likes
    Snowed in here... Higher roads/hills inland looking good - across the water in Argyll and Bute snowline is roughly 50 meters. Good to see snow pictures in here - enjoy!
  30. 12 likes
    The photos below show the kind of visibility which could be 'enjoyed' in parts of rural Lanarkshire and Ayrshire this afternoon. Mist and moisture everywhere - it soaks you without the need for any rainfall. The lack of sunshine suppressed the temperature to about 7 to 8 degrees Celsius so not quite as mild as some places. Looks like back to a more mobile pattern fairly soon, and probably back on the cold side of the jet stream as next week progresses, but still very little chance of any low ground snowfall in the near future by the looks of things.
  31. 11 likes
    Turning icy here as the sky cleared when the wind veered North of West. More showery today than I would have have forecast with many of the heavier ones being sleety and even a bit snow early doors though it did not settle. Having a bit of altitude and inland made a difference today. Here is Errichel in Highland Perthshire at 300 mtrs asl.
  32. 11 likes
    For anyone in doubt about the seriousness of the situation in South Wales consider this chart showing another 4cm of rain due today up to 6:00 pm: c This is on top of the 14 hours of nearly continuous rain which has already drenched the hills in this area. The steep sided valleys of South Wales drain all this water into narrow streams and rivers which can very quickly become inundated and cause dangerous flooding. Hence - red warning very much justified.
  33. 11 likes
    @CatchMyDrift I certainly don't expect anything here, I have seen it quite a few times where precip moving up from the south gets about as far as Edinburgh then thinks nah don't fancy the trip across the forth and another issue tomorrow will be the higher 850 temps and dew points so I would say someone like @mardatha or @shuggee would be best bet if it gets that far north.
  34. 11 likes
    You should have got your dad to do the writing Heavy settling snow for about 2 hours in 'upland' Caithness this afternoon (ie ground above about 80m) so I got caught in it, out and about, rolling around like a puppy, chucking snowballs at the project manager (both lies, sorry) then down to Hakirk (40m) where it's still sleet. Poor sheep the last few days. The ones around here look like they've gone into stasis now after several very cold wet and windy days, stuck out in fields with nowt but a barbed wire fence for shelter.
  35. 11 likes
    After a slushy stairt, heavy snaw oan here. Everything rapidly turning white.
  36. 11 likes
    Cairngorm mountain reporting massive snowdrifts in places.
  37. 11 likes
    A wet 9cm here now.....but also up to 1.4C and feeling more marginal in anything other than the heavy stuff.
  38. 11 likes
    The poor winter output continues. Too much polishing a turd happening at the moment. Ext EPS suggests a continuation of the positive AO/NAO combo. Others may find wet, blustery conditions at 8C fascinating but it just doesn’t cut it for me!
  39. 11 likes
    Our pain is at least helping the polar bears ! The PV looks like it’s going into over drive . At some point it will relent and when it does there’s a lot of cold bottled up in the Arctic , whether some of that gets released before the end of February hard to say . Its not looking good at the moment but too soon to completely write the month off .
  40. 11 likes
    00z GFS op at the cold end of the ensembles spread, but not without support. usually GFS has a good track record with modelling northerlies at range, though the 00z op probably at the extreme end wrt depth of cold and duration, given EC is much less cold and shorter in duration with the northerly, while GEM and ICON don't look to entertain the idea of a northerly at all. So caution required if getting too excited looking at those T850 and precipitation charts from GFS.
  41. 11 likes
    This is +384 hours on the 6z GFS 10hpa chart Just imagine what this would do for us on the surface if it verified exactly as shown We'd have two monster ridges. One will be the Siberian High, the other a monster Greenland/Canada ridge. A big trough would sit over Scandinavia and this would link back to the Atlantic lows which would be on a southerly track. This would place the jet stream through the med and leave us in a very cold Arctic northerly or even NE winds and a negative NAO to boot. Eastern USA could also go cold here from the same monster ridge over Greenland/Canada.
  42. 10 likes
    12z ECM giving support the the gfs for a potentially cold blast next Tuesday and Wednesday, timings vary a bit but something rather chilly with snow showers appears to be shaping up.
  43. 10 likes
    The Met Office have just issued a yellow weather warning for snow above 200 m ASL across a large part of the upland Highlands area and a good chunk of the Southern Uplands. The Euro 4 is modelling impressive new snow accumulations over the mountains between now and tomorrow night.
  44. 10 likes
    And some more good news: Taking the 06Z together with the latest missives from the Beeb, a gradual change to a more anticyclonic pattern seems to be gaining some traction: We can only hope!
  45. 10 likes
    The gfs incoming at 318,it has been showing amplified solutions in fl for a couple of days,will this be a trend. last chance saloon gfs,play it again in the morning otherwise i will walk out on you. i will just walk back in and forgive you
  46. 10 likes
    You must have the constitution of an Ox to keep plugging away for us Nick! All signals seem to point relentlessly to zonal dross ad nauseum.... Thanks for your efforts anyway, you're always entertaining even if the weather isn't!
  47. 10 likes
    Was expecting this forum to be bouncing this evening with what is being forecast on the models at present for next week Large parts of the country have potential so see snow fall of varying quantities along with fierce winds, rain and kitchen sinks
  48. 10 likes
    Heavy drizzle now, could possibly be RAIN Just found a dead mouse in the sofa. Cats are getting lazy. In fact, one's asleep on a chair in the kitchen, one's asleep on my bed and one's asleep on an old pullover in the bathroom. It's that sort of day. We did get a beach walk in earlier, some unusual patterns in the sand after the neap tides. Rather a <yawn> lazy afternoon myself.... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
  49. 10 likes
    Yes note Met Office forecast has held firm with the northerly flow today - and it hasn't been very bullish in calling colder conditions at all this winter.. certainly holding up the UKMO against the GFS. Had a strong feeling of a major backtrack from GFS this evening - how many times does it seem to overeact to any low pressure system moving out of the NE USA seaboard - it always seems too quick in spilling energy eastwards.
  50. 10 likes
    everything primed. .. on 18z. . with an overide of migrating pv. .as the in place block holds out. .. and even the ejection upstream could help. ...on this run. ....another possibility! !...going forward
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