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A beautiful, lovely, cold, crisp and bright February morning here.

More cloud and feeling chilly yet again in west London, I’ve gone down with a yucky cold to add to the joy. Another frost in Czechia, apparently lots of fruit crops damaged, especially apples and grapes for wine. Late SSWs can do one

Frosty roofs this morning but the best bit, it's sunny and dry.

A chilly start to the morning in Buxton as the temperature overnight dropped down to -0.4'c and DCC were proactive in laying some grit down on the main roads before sunrise in anticipation of potential ice, I was hearing the 'clinks' against the car and it wasn't until the ice-warning came on the dashboard that I put two+two together. Currently at 9.9'c although it's still feeling bitterly cold out there.

Remember in winter showers have to survive all the way from the north Sea as they don't develop over land but now they are developing over land instead so can start much closer to us.

I came back from a very cold and blowy North Yorkshire last night. A heavy shower as I came round the south side of Manchester but had cleared by the time I arrived home. A lovely start to today and, unlike North Yorkshire, no cold wind to peg the temperatures later. Fingers crossed for the washing outside.

Alderc 2.0 Oh that's awful! What a disappointment for you. Hope you start to feel better soon and IF the weather improves, you'll be able to recuperate in your sunny garden.

Frosty start and sunshine,friend who lives in Kelso says they have a little snow

Minimum of 0.9°C here.

Showery morning with a definite hint of sleet first thing, nor surprising as 1c at that time; dry and reasonably sunny from lunchtime onwards. Max of 9c today, nice and warm in the sunshine, frigid in the shade. Some gorgeous cloud formations mid-afternoon... Suie viewpoint lovely as ever this evening (looking north/northeast).

Turning into a much sunnier day than was forecast.

Let's hope the GFS has picked up on a new trend as we head into the second week of May:

Lovely morning. A light frost to start. It’s crazy that we’re forecast showers today from an easterly wind, the flow is light. In winter, any kind of easterly setup doesn’t produce as the Pennines gobble up absolutely everything. Hopefully the forecasts are wrong (as they so often are) and we can stay dry & sunny as you’d expect from an easterly this side of the Pennines.

Spring may have sprung. Wife’s photo as usual.

Judging fairly, all months since March 2023 in my area- March 2023- Satanic. Worst March I've ever lived through. April 2023- Nice few days in the first third then utterly forgettable & boring. May 2023- Shockingly bad 1st half, very nice 2nd half. June 2023- Superb! Little did I know this would be as good as it gets. July 2023- Laughable. Worst July I've ever lived through. August 2023- Middle was actually quite nice but bookended by guff either side. September 2023- Stunningly brilliant 1st half, arguably the best weather since August 2022 but the 2nd half was boring. October 2023- Actually a lovely 1st half with sun & warm temperatures but the 2nd half collapsed into a rainfest. November 2023- Can't really bash this one in my area as we managed a sunny day every 3 to 5 days so no endless gloom. Fine! December 2023- One of the dullest months imaginable & one of the worst I've ever lived through. January 2024- Crisp & sunny, no complaints here! February 2024- Worst February I've ever lived through. Mild temps couldn't save this absolute greyfest. March 2024- One of the worst March's I've ever lived through but still a touch better than March 2023. April 2024- Satanic again. Worst April I've ever lived through. SSW- A gloomy-wet lovers bed buddy. So there you have it & the reason for my pessimism lately is this is the 3rd month in a row & 4 out of the last 5 that are contenders for "worst month I've ever lived through" Utterly depressing run of grey-outs & rainfests! In hindsight, the August to November period weren't that bad, just a bit on the wet side but December to April (and counting)... good grief....

Beautiful clear start to the day, was 1°C at 6am but felt colder, couldn't see any frost. Currently still clear, but some cloud appearing in the distant NE.

Both GFS and ECM 12z ensembles look slightly more encouraging perhaps than they did yesterday. The 12z GFS OP was at the top end, but there does seem to be a bit more of a marked warmup around the turn of the month. 20C may well be possible for favoured spots I imagine. The ECM meteogram is introducing more uncertainty as soon as day 5 - still quite a lot to be resolved before we can have any confidence further into May. For what it's worth, UKV has a raw 19C for Tuesday afternoon - of course key uncertainties still to be resolved. Based on these three, a warmup looks to be coming around the turn of the month as I've highlighted previously, but there's nothing I'm seeing that suggests anything notable. Again, easy to forget how fast things are changing at this time of year. By early May date records are around 27-28C, so for a warm spell to be at all notable it would have to hit mid 20s. At the moment we're nowhere near that on any of the model output. Summary Probably increasing chances compared to yesterday of at least a 2-3 day warmup around the turn of the month. Favoured spots have a chance of hitting 20C, possibly feeling warm at times and a welcome improvement if you're looking for warmth, certainly. But still a long way from anything particularly notable at this stage. And I say this as someone who would welcome something significantly warmer - if the output supports it I'll be the first to say so. Further ahead the cooldown beyond the first few days of May now looks a bit more uncertain than it did, but given the uncertainties as soon as day 5 probably not worth losing too much sleep over that at this stage in any case.

Cumbria cold pole synoptics, light northerly drift and cold uppers overhead recipe for freezing nights. Shap as low as -6.2 degrees. These are the synoptics that in winter would deliver ice days and widespread double digit minus mins. Alas its late April. Despite lots of sun out there, the air is notably cold.

We already do, English wine has existed since Roman times. It's simply not as cheap or high quality as wine from elsewhere. However, I agree that winemaking will boom in the UK as summers continue to warm, winters turn milder and milder and it becomes less viable on the continent. Come the second half of the century, if the SE quadrant is transitioning to Csb which is likely by this point then it will outright be the ideal climate for many grape varieties. Methuselah Nearly, it was a neutral that wanted to be a weak Nina. Aside from that, 1911, 1975, 1976, 2018 and 2022 were all Ninas.

A brief plume week after next?

Well i know it is far out in la la land..but hey..what a site for sore eyes from gfs 0z this morning.. ...after next weeks warm up the ens looking distinctly average though .. .. ..actually a little below.. ..pressure.. ...gfs op...you are just cruel !!!

Looks like another morning to scrape the ice off the windscreen; certainly not unheard of in April but I feel like we’ve had more early morning frosts this month than Jan - March combined. Good to see the forecasters are still pushing the gradual warming next week and the Met extended outlook is talking about warm or even very warm conditions as we going further into next month so maybe we are finally seeing the end of this wretched period of weather and can look forward to venturing out without the need for a jacket. We’re not there yet though and the weekend is looking wet and cold for some although for a change it’s borderline for our our region and we may just about scrape a predominately dry couple of days with the wettest conditions to our south and east.

danm He was talking about it like it is a given and will last as long as the current rubbish we have endured. A couple of sunny and dry 35c days is nothing to worry about when we've had almost constant rain and cloud for months and months, and will have it later in the year too.

Christ, i remember when this forum was weather based and not a resemblance of 'Facebook lite' or Mums.net

WYorksWeather I wouldn’t worry, we’ll be blasted into the furnace via blowtorch southerlys from Africa before long. It happens every summer now so I’m not sure why people get so het up about some cooler weather. I’d snap your hand off for a guaranteed 2/3 day spell of -15 uppers in deep winter.

Penrith Snow Bit of an exaggeration- the ensembles are actually not far off average for 850 hPa temps after a warmer spell next week (that admittedly might be tempered by rain and cloud). Some people have the perception that a Greenland High always leads to cool conditions in the UK. It doesn't guarantee it at all.

Once again the forecasts was very wrong today. This time, for the better, as it's much sunny and drier for longer than was anticipated. I'm at the point where I may as well just ignore the forecasts. Sticking my head out the window tells me all I need to know.

richie3846 Yes, damaging late frosts are happening a lot recently in C Europe. They have a huge impact. It’s been a bit crazy temperature-wise over the last 3 weeks, got up to 28°C 2 weeks ago and then the last week-10 days has been absolutely baltic. English wine is getting a lot of interest and there are some excellent wines on offer. Quite a few vineyards are being established and French champagne growers are buying up land in SE England, apparently

Dusting of wet looking snow evident on at least some of the hills around the Vale of Alford first thing this morning. Warming up a bit next week?

Well guys and gals, let's hope the GFS is on to something here for the second week of May. Please lord, deliver this for us...

Some fantastic Northern Blocking on this mornings ECM, the Greenland High by day 9 is a peach, the UK remains on the cold side of the jet so any warm up will be fleeting. Best keep the central heating on. Andy

Alderc 2.0 Oh gosh I'm sorry After all that planning too. Hope you have insurance! Big hugs x Bristawl Si yea it's feeeckin freezing!

I seldom say 'I'm glad to be going home' but this was one such occasion. In all my time coming to the NY coast and moors, I've seldom felt so cold and yes, I am well aware of how cold the area can be at this time of the year, given how cold the North Sea is. Yesterday morning, the forecast showers arrived at 8am and, although it brightened up later, the wind was bitingly cold. Back home this morning, it is a beautiful start to the day and no wind to peg the temperatures later on. I'll be back in NY in a couple of weeks.

Well I believe the saying goes ‘if you didn’t have bad luck, you’d have none at all’ and that’s certainly the case this morning. Was meant to be embarking on an adventure which was supposed to combine work and play over the next few months however instead this morning I’ve woken in hospital with what is now looking like a pretty badly broken ankle, dislocated knee, concussion and other bumps and bruises. Was out walking the dog late yesterday and was hit by a complete idiot on an e-scooter. Pretty much the whole summer is going to be ruined

Chilly start again, low of 0.1c. Sunny spells.

-1.1°C

Just saw this thread. In terms of where we stand globally - the first three months of the year, and likely the first four, have all outperformed last year. The key will be the speed of the ENSO transition, I imagine. Both the Arctic and Antarctic are currently running a bit below average. Global temperature records are being driven primarily by extraordinary and record-breaking warmth in the tropics at the moment. Here is the ENSO plume projection initialised in March. The consensus is currently for neutral ENSO or weak La Nina for Northern Hemisphere summer, and moderate La Nina for the Northern Hemisphere autumn. If we see this slow down a little, it would increase the probability of 2024 surpassing 2023. Right now it's probably still too early to say.

Addicks Fan 1981 Nothing wrong with the hovmoller charts either - it's all the same data to be fair. Whether you use meteograms, ensembles or whatever it's all just different presentations of the same raw data. Again my posts should be taken as the situation at the time - things may look different from day to day. Going to do a quick post now.

Well the forecast I saw was for light rain all day, so a few showers isn't too bad compared to that. Looking warmer from Monday onwards

I've missed chase days like this so much, dryline days are just the best, temps in the upper 20s low 30s, beautiful cumulus towers with a deep blue sky and some absolutely amazing chase terrain, no other place in the world like the plains.

Kentspur A high anomaly to our west in May would usually bring a chill but bright/sunny northerly airflow, western parts would see the sunniest conditions including the Lake District. In such set ups the air is often sparkling clear and indeed brings superb conditions here. Obviously troughs can become embedded in true arctic shots but rarely potent in May, perhaps a few showers. Even better is a more NE flow that can bring warmth to the west whilst the east is plagued by cloud, a common set up in May. I always say mid April to mid June best time to visit the Lake District. Back to the models, its all a bit unclear how next week will pan out, signs of the atlantic trough reappearing to the west to pull in a cloud dankfest to west parts once the milder easterly is out of the way, then we await to see if an atlantic ridge develops again or we maintain more notable heights direct to the north. Either way no heatwave on the cards, nor deluge, all quite benign typical stuff for this juncture in the year.

Oh, for the expansion of the Hadley cycle ,

Second half of this April has been quite devoid of anything thundery as high pressure has had a greater influence to our west, the next few days doesn't catch my eye either. However going into May does appear a bit more interesting. Looks like a trough is modelled across various outputs to collapse down into the Bay of Biscay. As a result much warmer air comes in via central Europe, then to Germany and that eventually arriving here via an easterly mid next week, a sort of modified plume I guess. Difficult to say how thundery things would be and where the boundary between cooler and warmer air sets up, but would expect something to pop up from this pattern. Interesting to see how this evolves in the coming days.

Looks like being the wettest April since 1970 for the region.

Rain All Night too many charts for my liking . Sorry. Just complicates things in my eyes anyway….

Cheshire Freeze No we won't. I don't think we will have anything seasonal until maybe August/September. We only really had hot summers in 2018 and 2022 in recent years.

Developing supercell on Ryans stream

I hope we are going to see 30C for a week in October for compensation for this bitterly wintry April, surely that's fair right?

Colorado isn't actually a bad place to chase, it seems to rarely fail, Ijust that it doesn't typically seem to have high end events but if you want some good dusty pictures like old tornado pictures, go there.