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Showing most liked content since 17/02/20 in all areas

  1. 20 likes
    It looks better again later in the run, fingers crossed we see some wintry weather next week.
  2. 17 likes
    At last a break in the weather allowed for a wee jaunt up the Sidlaws. Breezy but decent visibility and a wee cover of snow in shady parts. As for tomorrow it’s rain forecast here on the immediate east coast (as you would expect). Low-lying areas inland may fare better but in keeping with this month I think you’re going to need a bit of elevation to be sure!
  3. 15 likes
    Just had a look at the GEFS 6z postage stamps and they show an increasing chance of snow as next week progresses, especially from midweek which was also the case with the 0z... could next week turn into the best period of the winter so far for cold / snow starved coldies?...everything crossed!!
  4. 14 likes
    In the longer term, it's looking kindae cauld tae. -5 or lower T850s the norm... Even scandi/greenie highs making appearances in FI. PV increasingly disrupted / wandering. I'm not holding out hope for a wee beasterly quite yet, but at least the ski areas should finish the season better than it started. Or, mair correctly, start their season! In the meantime, the morn looks fun. --- EDIT. This is actually more classic 70s/80s winters in Scotland. I learned to ski at aviemore as a young lad fae the valley in the 80's. While carrbrigde got snaw, it wasn't a continuous run of beasts, 10ft drifts, frozen rivers and digging out trains from inverness. School (by bus) in the next parish was hardly ever shut, with the roads clear, much to my disappointment. Also, 'the hill' wasn't always 2 m deep in snaw, but plenty of heather patches and mild, slushy days. The lady was famous for her slush bumps. What happened was the kind of pattern we have now; regular lows but centred more south, so colder air swept the highlands from the WSW and dumped huge drifts into the northern corrie ski basins. Freeze-thaw then hardened this into a solid base for the season in natural gullies aided by fences. This stopped really quite abruptly into the 90's, and early 00's, where winters more like this one Nov-Jan dominated, with dreaded 'bartlett' highs. Since 2010 it's actually, overall, maybe a little better, but not 2018 and this winter (until the past few weeks). At least this is my impression / memories.
  5. 12 likes
    Crazy Synoptics ! Talk about a lot going on. The ECM certainly keeps us interested as I’m not sure anyone has much idea how this is all going to turn out !
  6. 12 likes
    Heavy again in Braemar. Really wet snow though.
  7. 11 likes
    00Z GFS about as good as it could get in the grand scheme of things. Second night of March
  8. 11 likes
    Temperature is 10C colder compared to yesterday. Currently 2C with moderate snow, the hills have a slight covering. Bank. Heavier snow out at Braemar. Latest update from the Met office, for this area, is for heavy snow 11am..
  9. 11 likes
    What I’m looking for in the models at present is some letup in the current pattern for those that have, or will have had a terrible time with flooding. For the rest of us, some dry days and some sign of spring. Here’s the moan.... the incessant hunt for snow in the model thread is very boring. A few terrible bores in there. Isn’t there more to offer in meteorology then snow? I know they get likes and all. But it’s almost verging on unhealthy in my view.
  10. 11 likes
    Turning icy here as the sky cleared when the wind veered North of West. More showery today than I would have have forecast with many of the heavier ones being sleety and even a bit snow early doors though it did not settle. Having a bit of altitude and inland made a difference today. Here is Errichel in Highland Perthshire at 300 mtrs asl.
  11. 10 likes
    Definitely colder on the hills this morning, the ground is solid and any standing water is frozen. At elevation, the hills to the west look great in their winter coats:
  12. 10 likes
    Relentless zonality this season,no pertuberations or weaker vortex yet in forecast,just a terrible winter season full stop.Cant wait for spring. A lesson to learn not to look at zonal wind forecast and MJO on GFS 5+ days
  13. 10 likes
    12z ECM giving support the the gfs for a potentially cold blast next Tuesday and Wednesday, timings vary a bit but something rather chilly with snow showers appears to be shaping up.
  14. 10 likes
    The Met Office have just issued a yellow weather warning for snow above 200 m ASL across a large part of the upland Highlands area and a good chunk of the Southern Uplands. The Euro 4 is modelling impressive new snow accumulations over the mountains between now and tomorrow night.
  15. 9 likes
    Compares with my rain gauge near Halkirk getting just 76mm so far this month. In the few years I've been working on and off up there, I don't recall any really wet spell. Coming back down to the Black Isle this afternoon, Easter Ross fields are as flooded as they were when I went north on Monday and we still have a moat at HC Towers - but we've had little compared to most folk here further south. Next week is still looking wintry.
  16. 9 likes
    Showers already turning wintry after the rain last night just a shame this is a short sharp blast before the mild returns Nice proper shower of the white stuff and it settling
  17. 9 likes
    Evening all, Came home to similar conditions as @Kirkcaldy Weather was reporting. Missed the showers, too busy at work! Sunday night was certainly the wildest here in terms of high winds, some minor damage and gusts must have been 70mph here on the coast (Tay Bridge was closed for a while). Got out for a walk on the Fife Coastal Path on Saturday, was glad to have the wind at my back! Even spotted a few bedraggled, wind blown daffodils.
  18. 7 likes
    A pretty messy medium term outlook with shortwaves flying all over the place and these small wedges of heights . The ECM manages to displace the main PV further north , looking at the mean although not as bullish that’s an improvement on last night suggesting an increase in colder solutions . I think however we should be wary of any changes shown post day 7 to the PV , it’s still packing a punch and we have seen a bias at the longer range to show some favourable changes which then implode .
  19. 7 likes
    Heavy snow here with thunder & lightning
  20. 7 likes
  21. 7 likes
    Yes looks like trending colder as we go into March and still unsettled, ain't that just typical. And the ECM showing it's first half decent (if you can call it that) cold snap of the winter.
  22. 7 likes
    The 0z GFS continues to show a rampant Atlantic. I've never seen anything like it at this time of year. It's more like October than February. Astonishing, astonishing, conditions.
  23. 6 likes
    No one messes with our super wedge ! If the upstream troughing was just a bit weaker that would disrupt sending energy se and keep the continental flow into the UK for longer . It’s the slider shortwave ejecting off that trough that would really up the ante. Regardless a very interesting run from the GFS upto day ten .
  24. 6 likes
    Good read @scottish skier I remember reading an article from Andy Meldrum back in 2018 - mentioned that in the last decade West coast Winters have on average been stormier and snowier. Also said that before 2010, Glencoe mountain had never opened before Christmas for snowboarding/skiing. (Since then the centre has opened six times before Christmas) More days have been lost over the season due to high winds though. Screenshot below of story. I was also looking at the monthly mean temperatures since the start of the year 2010 through to the end of 2019. (All against the 1981-2010 Anomaly - Scotland months only) Meteorological Winter months (December, January and February) since 2010: Two below average for December Five below average for January Four below average February Interesting facts...six below average for November, July and August which you would expect for Scotland. March only had three below average. (Two of those classics...2013 and 2018. ) Met Office graphs below: November is a better Winter type weather month than December nowadays...time to move Christmas back a month early! (More chance of a frosty scene!) It’s all swings and roundabouts with regards to us getting actual snowfall in Winter - as ever ones location/height above sea level will determine which month delivers the best for you in Scotland.
  25. 6 likes
    Wedge gate ! Both the GFS and ECM now want to develop a wedge of heights to the n/ne around day 8. The upstream pattern is very complicated because as the original eastern USA storm heads east the flow over the ne USA reamplifies. So instead of all that energy barreling eastwards it starts heading se allowing that wedge of heights to develop . The re amplification is now key and that opens up some opportunities if of course it verifies.
  26. 6 likes
    I was over at my Dad's at Kilmacolm this afternoon and it was just a wall of water, even for a wet part of the lowlands it was far worse than normal. The road in the pic above always floods, it used to be the dip under a low railway bridge. The railway is long gone but the road still dips and floods.
  27. 6 likes
    Once again any amplification shown bites the dust . The pattern now becoming flatter with every run . Even crumbs aren’t being thrown out now to close winter with at least something resembling that season . Clearly the models are underestimating the PV at the medium range and so we see some temporary amplified solutions before reality hits . The GFS 06 hrs now onto another likely wild goose chase in its FI .
  28. 6 likes
  29. 6 likes
    Snow in some of the heaviest showers that passed over Edinburgh today.
  30. 5 likes
    Expecting pish and disappointment! Hoping for snaw!
  31. 5 likes
    There’s something for everyone ! Further south, further north etc . Glad I’m just a neutral observer here ! These shortwaves as we’ve seen in the past can cause bedlam in here !
  32. 5 likes
    Looking north this afternoon. Looked outside at 10pm and said it is basws outside. Totally confused my wife and she looked out knew what I meant.
  33. 5 likes
    Think we're fed up Nick! This winter is now a write off - looking for warmth now!
  34. 5 likes
    Fairly frequent and heavy showers today so far. Lying during the showers but melting in the sunny spells between, just about holding on in the shade.
  35. 5 likes
    71mm of rain there over the last 36 hours according to SEPA. We've had about 36mm in the last 24hrs and around 50mm over the last 36 hours. All made worse by the recent wet weather!
  36. 5 likes
    You are not wrong sir! I'm sitting here with my roll and coffee and wondering if it really was the correct decision! I hate buses! On the plus side I have no reason to not stop for a pint after work
  37. 5 likes
    Think we heard that one here in Falkirk (unless the kids are having a stompy disco upstairs).
  38. 5 likes
    Given the current situation regarding the grim flooding in many areas and the completely saturated ground in others, I would have thought the main priority at the moment is to keep an eye, or two, on the model outputs in the near time frame with this in mind. And although there will be some rain in the next two or three days which will not help it's developments at the beginning of next week that need watching. By midday Sunday a wave is developing on the trailing front in the Atlantic which is set to deepen quickly near the left exit of the jet as it tracks north east over the next 24 hours. But you will note that there is no consensus on the detail of this, by a long chalk, but hopefully this will be sorted quickly But this could bring heavy rain and gales to many areas that don't need it
  39. 5 likes
    Just out of interest (and I’m really not being or trying to be funny or sarcastic in anyway here at all) have you a background in biomedical science? I’m just curious. I did immunology some 22-years ago (gosh where did the intervening years go) as part of a biomedical science/health science degree and I found immunology (and embryology at a later point in the degree course) absolutely fascinating - I had to be surgically removed from my immunology text books . At the point I was studying the subject HIV was still very much the virus to conquer.
  40. 5 likes
    Hopefully as bad as this winter has been for us coldies,it might keep the arctic cooler and for longer inti the melt season and hopefully conditions up there are kind through the melt season.
  41. 5 likes
  42. 5 likes
    9C and wall to wall sunshine as I left the Aberdeen office this afternoon. Spring begins in under a fortnight, and 28 days later the clocks go forward. Should be enough daylight to hit the hills after work for a couple of hours. Counting the days.....
  43. 5 likes
    Still gusting fearsomely in Caithness but at least it's dry and sunny. God that was a miserable weekend and I feel for the folk who got flooded out. Let's hope that was the worst of it.
  44. 5 likes
    Have to admit, would choose that High Pressure chart over the constant train and soggy weather the Atlantic Lows been unleashing apon us! Just need to find the Tardis and jump a few weeks into the future to Spring. (With the way this Winter’s behaving, that’s the only thing that is appealing right now lol). That GEM chart Tim Bland posted does look interesting for having more of an Arctic Maritime influence from the North for the UK. Winter probably will snatch it away as usual. But guess we’ll find out whether it’s being too amplified, or whether the ECMWF and GFS are being a little bit flat with the outcome, at the moment. In the closer timeframe, it looks like a further continuation of the mobile, Atlantic, Westerly theme with varying cooler and milder periods. And further spells of wind, showers and rain, some wintry over Northern hills at times. Best of the milder conditions towards the South-East, particularly later into this week as High Pressure rocks about to the South/South-East of the UK: South-Eastern areas generally tending to see the best of the brighter less unsettled conditions too. The strong blue and purples to the North and North-West of the UK (Polar Vortex) together with the strong heights to the South, bringing quite a strong Jetstream through the UK encouraging a strong, Westerly, active pattern. Today and tomorrow though will be will be quite chilly for all, as a cool, showery, Westerly flow dominates: The airmass, especially at the 850 hPa temperature level for Northern areas, looks cold enough for showers to have some wintry flavour to them. But most likely over the Northern High ground. Perhaps a few flakes reaching some lower levels across the North. The chilly theme looking to last into Wednesday: ...although some rain, possibly with some leading edge sleet and snow on high ground over Northern UK, looks to spill in from the West later into the morning and early afternoon.
  45. 4 likes
    I also like the developing heights over Scandinavia at T=216 and T+240 which keep the trough negatively aligned.
  46. 4 likes
    It’s fairly standard for early spring for the PV to start loosing it’s grip. If it’s deep and crisp and even you are after it will take something very special when approaching mid March!
  47. 4 likes
    @Kirkcaldy Weather how accurate is the WRF at windspeed? Does it overcook them? We hardly ever get gusts at or above 70mph here. That would cause a lot of tree damage.
  48. 4 likes
    Doesn’t really matter about the warmth JUST STOP RAINING 🌧
  49. 4 likes
    This is just ridiculous. NOT HAPPY - Oldest son has come home to live after a breakup and he only has his m/c to get to work on. He works odd hours in odd places and has to cover very lonely isolated roads. Why couldn't the damn bloody snow have come last month? NOT AMUSED. signed: Victoria R.
  50. 4 likes
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