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  1. 21 likes
    Desperation makes a two day northerly seem like a ‘47 redux! clusters show this pub run evolution has about as much chance as anything else in the day 9/11 day period lets look for some consistency tomorrow
  2. 19 likes
    You guys have awoken me from my ancient slumber... Nearly spat me horlex out when I viewed the 18z....strooth...some intense cold showing its hand on this run.... Could we be about to see for the 1st time this season.... A boom situation. Ps.. I'm out of reactions but fantastic commentary from all of you... You beauty..
  3. 18 likes
    I was driving into this earlier. Shots taken by my neighbour Sarah:
  4. 18 likes
    I’ve seen more excitement at a Women’s Institute Bake Sale ! By day 8 the ECMs upstream pattern is as flat as a pancake . By day 9 the colder air is desperately trying to break through the UKs cold force field. In the meantime the low hanging around upstream panics at that thought and moves east in the hope of stopping the cold advance ! Excuse my flippant tone but I’m being driven to it !
  5. 16 likes
    What's the time??? Its ensemble time!! It's well quite on here, the place was buzzing just the other day!! Come on folks, get behind me for a February cold chase... Will it, prey for it, dance for it! Possible early talk of an SSW!! We could do with it folks, and would certainly make Feb more exciting.... Never say never..
  6. 16 likes
    Putting aside the Indiana Jones and the search for snow ! The high pressure could well bring some pretty low temps especially for southern central areas . Could be some sub zero maxima where fog doesn’t clear . There could be some hoar frost which will bring a festive feel to things .
  7. 14 likes
    Also signs there could be a stonking displacement SSW as well - big reversal at 1mb. IN OTHER WORDS - BITTER SPRING ALERT!!
  8. 14 likes
    Afternoon all, Amazing scenes from St John’s. I’ve visited there, it’s a great town with friendly people. They are very used to big snowstorms of course (averaging 335cm of snowfall per year!) but that one really took the biscuit. Back home had a great walk on Ben Ledi on Saturday. Snow cover was thin but the views were tremendous!
  9. 14 likes
    Another pic of the cracking sunset tonight, looking west from above Lairg
  10. 13 likes
    Would add that that sunset was memorable, only caught it from the glamourous vista of Inverness asda car park and up the hill on the way home when it wasn’t as great Yes HC, definite hints of mammatus, someone posted this on Twitter from the town
  11. 12 likes
    18z suite. Op, Control and 14 out of 20 GEFS members hit -8 850s or lower on the south coast. Consistency required but as I mentioned earlier this looks very feasible.
  12. 10 likes
    Well at least we can put to bed the myth that longer range models are always pish. Correct call at 3 month lead time is not too bad at all. Of course, this only really applies to a +NAO set up as they are seemingly quite atrocious at dealing with anything outside of the climatological 'norm'
  13. 10 likes
    Everyone has beat me to it with the weird cloud scenes today! It was quite mesmerising, I took a picture from the car, was travelling to and from Ringwood in the New Forest so had lots of opportunities to see it from different angles! I wish I’d stopped along the seafront to take a pic, the sun was setting behind the cloud formation and it was a beautiful red/pink, with the dark silhouette of Beachy Head. Anyone with a decent camera would have nailed a super duper snap! Anyway this is my poor effort, bear in mind I was in the car travelling at speed!
  14. 10 likes
    It did look hopeful for a time that the MJO would go through 7 and get to phase 8 at decent amplitude, phases that at good enough amplitude can lead to northern/high lat blocking and -NAO further down the line, given the lag of 10-12 days. However, it looks like we are getting the response of the wave through phase 6 leading to blocking high pressure over the UK/Europe (MLB) but the response from the move into phase 7 is looking rather muted in recent model output. One explanation, that I read by Isotherm a US weather expert on another forum, is that the wave of strongest convection over the Pacific is tending to be along the equator and the southern hemisphere tropics of the Pacific - so this is having less impact on the upper flow of the northern hemisphere than was hoped. Given the background state of the strong TPV since mid-December, what little amplification is being made from the convection in the colder phases is having a very muted effect. Couple this with convection firing over the Maritime continent (warm phases) and the ongoing effects if the Indian Ocean Dipole - it appears the MJO does not want hang around or get into colder phases at decent amplitude this winter. But prefers to spend longer in warmer phases. With regards to hoping the eQBO will help us out, again, not as clear cut, yes the QBO is easterly high up in the stratosphere, but it still has yet to descend lower down into the lower stratosphere and certainly far from denting the strong zonal winds at high latitudes - though signs it will do this through February, so may help weaken the PV with time and perhaps allow northern blocking as we end winter. The models still forecasting a decrease in 10 hPa zonal winds in the stratosphere, but its dropping from a very high spike and so forecast, so far, only get to the climatology average - given zonal winds tend to drop anyway on average as we go towards March. So where does that leave us? Nothing showing from the main drivers to change the pattern for a few weeks, though worth keeping an eye on the blocking centred over central Canada perhaps extending its influence towards NW Atlantic and even western Greenland - this *could* be enough to orientate an increasingly cyclonic NW to SE flow across NW Europe as we end January..
  15. 9 likes
    There is potential for the back end of Feb and into March as there looks a realistic probability of an esh esh double u.
  16. 9 likes
    And this one does have a Scottish connection. Taken by a lass who moved there from Dundee.
  17. 9 likes
    ECM 0z @ 240 ECM 12z @ 240 ECM 12 z uppers @ 240 A little bit better at the end from ECM 12z in comparison to the 0z but hardly enough to get carried away with yet. The good news is that the GFS has been pointing at a cold Northwesterly for 28th / 29th Jan too for several runs . So there is still hope GEFS 12z control run @ 240
  18. 9 likes
    That naughty polar vortex is going to be largely displaced to Eurasia in coming days what does that mean? Well mid Atlantic blocking will be under less fire. The strong vortex could assist with cold trough sinking into Europe with unusually cold air to tap into, we will see what happens but I’d say N/NW cold snap likely. How cold? And for how long? Probably not for long. What is clear there is some very cold air available potential for something more than standard.
  19. 9 likes
    Hows this for keen. Local farmer resumed ploughing the field in darkness at 6am. Grabbed this picture 5 minutes ago. What a trooper!
  20. 8 likes
    Not a very interesting spell of weather on the immediate horizon, a case of watching the current high ebb away slowly to the south, allowing the atlantic to make inroads once again by the weekend. A mild picture in the main, with cloud. Into next week, further unsettled weather from the west, with something colder from the NW for the north at least. Its these kind of synoptics that force me to switch off from model watching for a few days, might just do that..
  21. 8 likes
    It's the extent of the yellows and oranges that's got my interest piqued...Sooner or later (whenever the tPV starts to break down) all that warm air is going to flood north...?
  22. 8 likes
    It really is tough for coldies so far this Winter. Again as the latest GFS shows the NH jet flow is so flat with little ridging anywhere keeping the cold bottled up above 60n much of the time.The high will at least give a mostly dry few days with some night frosts and daytime temperatures near normal so at least feeling a bit more seasonal.
  23. 7 likes
  24. 7 likes
    very much continuation of the theme. . and of course 850s will be tempered. .although perhaps not quite as usual. . and again let's get the flow in...the look at the deeper dynamics! ! it's cold and frosty hp. ..transferring to milder wetter mobility. ..then I'm quite sure a deflection to such as the snap! !.. I'm going for a potent north westerly. ..with a possibility of switching northerlys. whatever. ..some meat on the bone. [email protected]
  25. 7 likes
    Oooohhhhh GFS you are a tease, but I do love you...
  26. 7 likes
    First snow fall of this boring winter so far if ECM t240 comes off Booooooom !!!
  27. 7 likes
    Purely as an observer; during the past few years..... internet weather 'hero worship' has seemingly become a growth industry. JC was always being touted as some kind of weather 'god'. Plenty of other global weather gurus touting themselves on twatter; often quoted in model tweets thread. A little bit of due diligence wouldnt go amiss
  28. 7 likes
    Entering what is generally the coldest core period of the year, mid Jan - mid Feb, and also a time when the atlantic begins to quieten from its early winter stirrings (not all years, but typically it does).. What do we have in store, a change to something a bit colder in the nearer term, and thankfully something quieter as well, with a significant sudden surge of high pressure building through the UK this weekend, up to close to 1050mb which is very strong. A return to air frost and sunshine, which will be welcomed by many I'm sure, after weeks of mainly dull overcast drab dank skies. The models continue to show the direction of travel as we move through latter part of the month is from the NW, the high set to back south west, with the strong jet riding over the top. No surprise to see the models showing some potent polar air invading the UK in the 10 day timeframe, much will depend on the position of building heights, if these stay closer to the UK, then a glancing not quite so cold flow will envelop, a bit further west then a preety cold blast will follow suit. Longer term, we could see the high ridge back in again.
  29. 6 likes
    In theory, if it gets flushed down, however, from experience these nearly always translate to either topplers or transient NW flows in the trop, however, this is nearing the end of the season and the warming is still going strong at the top right out to 384 and is either a reversal or near reversal so this one could get interesting.
  30. 6 likes
    Crapuweather strikes again! Their seasonal forecasts are absolutely terrible, last summers one was awful as well. It’s been unsettled here for sure, but stormy? We’ve only had 2 named storms....well down on previous winters. The rest of it is cack too. Best to ignore it really.
  31. 6 likes
    The year without a winter just gone from Autumn to spring. Certainly going to be a Snow free Jan for us to go along with December. A dreadful winter none winter.
  32. 6 likes
    Today's GFS 00Z not looking to good for my, or anyone else's, snow chances...?
  33. 6 likes
    Some better news for the east coast of Australia with some heavy rain and thunderstorms
  34. 6 likes
    Currently 2C and snowing slightly at Cairngorm base station:
  35. 6 likes
  36. 5 likes
    Wonder how many more weeks before a massive pattern change takes place and the majority of Europe goes bitterly cold.I have seen it before with minus 30 at the end of March in Sweden etc and sub-Zero in Mid March even here on the coast.I expect huge payback from this mildness over Europe. That’s whats keeping my interest in the models and how long before they pick up on the change. Its certainly been a tedious winter though chasing non existent cold for months.
  37. 5 likes
    Hi gang ,thats the big question every time with day 10 charts , yes south could be Balmy or take it all further south and it could be game on for some wintry ness. So again today we have no real Boom ,but could all change tonight at 7pm ish ,but the hunt is still on ,possibility of a cold trough setting up to our east in time for February, low 850 s and and warm sea temp some beefy snow showers PERhaps ,cheers .
  38. 5 likes
    22 months ago (March 2018) - not so long ago
  39. 5 likes
    looks like it’s not just us suffering a mild winter so far, saw this on an American FB site! is the Pacific affecting our weather as a knock on effect? Well the pattern doesn't look good for us Winter lovers after this cold snap. Recall a few days ago I was watching everything we meteorologists look at going out into the future, and all guidance and teleconnections looked like a major pattern change was coming and would stay. Thats no longer the case. Instead, Alaska and Greenland remain cold as the main heart of Arctic cold stays locked up, after our brief bout of cold next few days. Thats not good for us in the Southeast, nor really anyplace in the middle to eastern seaboard for getting and keeping cold air around. The Pacific jet is loaded with waves that keep in pushing across the country, and not allowing enough time or wavelength distance to alter the flow toward a strong Winter like pattern yet. Every few days we have another rain making storm cut inland, and possibly behind it we cool off some, before we have the next inland cutting storm, and you guessed it--more rain. Its a guessing game as to when we really fundamentally shift the pattern, but it's no time really soon I'm afraid for those of us wanting a Winter storm to track. As always though next couple of weeks, with atleast marginal cold air following some storms, we'll have to monitor any small scale systems that may drag down "just enough" marginally cold air to work with somewhere, but right now, just not impressed with the pattern for most of us for the remainder of the month. Here's a big picture look of the overall flow pattern out through day 10.
  40. 5 likes
    Not much to say really, same old, same old right out till D16. We are locked into the current pattern of no northern blocking. Maybe the jet further south, or maybe not, if it does then likely cold-zonal rather than cool-mild. But NW'ly can only get you so far for wintry weather especially the further SE you are. GEM moves towards ECM at D10 with a mini-ridge in the westerly flow so maybe 48h of cooler uppers, though upper T850's cut off early so a watered down cold rain scenario mostly. GFS flatter again but probably too progressive as per usual so expect a shift towards GEM/ECM. Maybe as suggested repeated pattern though still the mean in FI suggests anomalous heights building near the UK, and that maybe the MJO signal; dying in 7 and moving back to 5, so that is subject to change. D16 mean: No need to comment on the above, a picture paints a thousand words. As for the hope that the +IOD would relax, maybe second thoughts on that: May explain why we are stuck in this rut. As for the strat, I suspect that if an SSW happens it will be too late to save winter, but maybe a cool damp Spring again? Still no sign of the MJO/WWB showing up in the models for anomalous height rises and even with the lag that should be helping in FI, so maybe other forces dampening the effect? Though after D10 we do see mid-lat Pacific, Russian and Iberian highs; that may indeed be the extent of the MJO forcing within the whole atmospheric mix? Hoping the trough at D8+ stalls a bit and we get a more potent cold upper flow like the GEM: Though the ECM has moved away from this in the latest run and GFS yet to board that train...
  41. 5 likes
    to me the most exciting time is seen soon at the models :
  42. 5 likes
    Stunning day out there today. Refreshing to see clear blue skies , so much better than the mehfest of late. totally get why the downbeat vibe in the MOD thread , good to see some of our more learned posters from here trying to inject some positivity there. but it’s still only 18th of January, model accuracy falls of a cliff like a drunken lemming after about 7 days so ........
  43. 5 likes
    Morning all Looking across to the Cowal Peninsula there is snow! Snow line is roughly 400 meters and above. (As usual) Plenty of showers moving through in the past few hours and still going at the moment. Heading out shortly for a proper look as snow is hard to come by this Winter! Lowland snowfall wise end of January still looks interesting - North West/West looks best but even here it will only be for about 12 to 24 hours! (If it even becomes reality and no doubt you will need to live above 200 meters for snow to settle ) ECM: GFS for the same timeframe: As ever we shall see what happens - grim Winter so far from a cold/snow perspective and not much cheer for the long term currently. Glencoe is looking good if you seek a proper snow fix! Webcams - Glencoe Mountain Resort WWW.GLENCOEMOUNTAIN.CO.UK Click to refresh the page Click a thumbnail to view larger webcam view or scroll down for slideshow. Upper Depth 85cm Lower Depth 45cm Have a good weekend!
  44. 5 likes
    Just realised that this link is updated each day. So here is (hopefully) the actual version for anybody who has been unable to read it! https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/01/16/magnetic-explosions-discovered-on-earths-doorstep/ It believes they have observed a 'near earth' magnetic explosion due to gusts of solar wind bending the earths natural magnetic force field and the explosion occurred as the force field reconnected again. It was accompanied by a vivid Aurora, and is believed to be one of the closest to earth yet recorded MIA
  45. 5 likes
  46. 5 likes
    September last - and rather nice it was too..
  47. 5 likes
    The transition to a more settled scenario this weekend quickly establishes an impressive high cell but through next week this does come under pressure from energy exiting the eastern seaboard, aided and abetted by the presence of a cut off low in the Iberia region.. And later in the ten day period a lobe of the tpv tracks east from northern Canada which essentially marks the end of high pressure influence and a return to a more zonal flow as the tpv over the Arctic undergoes some restructuring. The various anomalies vary a tad in detail but all are in the same ball park and give a reasonable over view of this
  48. 5 likes
    So despite a week of ECM "potential" D10 charts we still await that potential! Maybe today's 0z: Looking at GEM and GFS for the same time, the ECM looks to be on its own: Knowing how poor ECM is at that range maybe no surprise. Clearly we have to wait for models to get some coherence for post-D8 before we can write off January, but probabilities suggest, as many of us think, is that February will be the start of winter if it happens? Records suggest the US has its 3rd warmest winter on record (mid-point), and the theory that low solar activity = more blocking is looking dubious. CET of 3.9c above the average at mid-month sums it up. Anyway the GEFS are all over the place so little point looking into FI, so until advised we should assume tPV the main driver and just hope this current intense WWB does indeed promote a true MJO signal after the lag, before it declines (GFS) in phase 7 (though other models suggest it may enter phase 8 [Australian model]). Other positive background signal and assuming the tPV starts to wind down as expected maybe a late winter still possible. Of course, the experts could be missing something and the rest of the winter may suck as well!
  49. 5 likes
    Wild and very wet as I drove home around 4:30pm. Got soaked just jumping I to the post office in Alford to pick up a parcel. Next weekend still showing 'potential' for some snow, but probably not widespread, and certainly not what I'd call 'snowmageddon'.
  50. 5 likes
    Absolutely hammering down with rain in Edinburgh. Looking forward to the dry weekend!
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