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Showing most liked content since 13/01/20 in Posts

  1. 21 likes
    Desperation makes a two day northerly seem like a ‘47 redux! clusters show this pub run evolution has about as much chance as anything else in the day 9/11 day period lets look for some consistency tomorrow
  2. 19 likes
    You guys have awoken me from my ancient slumber... Nearly spat me horlex out when I viewed the 18z....strooth...some intense cold showing its hand on this run.... Could we be about to see for the 1st time this season.... A boom situation. Ps.. I'm out of reactions but fantastic commentary from all of you... You beauty..
  3. 18 likes
    I’ve seen more excitement at a Women’s Institute Bake Sale ! By day 8 the ECMs upstream pattern is as flat as a pancake . By day 9 the colder air is desperately trying to break through the UKs cold force field. In the meantime the low hanging around upstream panics at that thought and moves east in the hope of stopping the cold advance ! Excuse my flippant tone but I’m being driven to it !
  4. 16 likes
    What's the time??? Its ensemble time!! It's well quite on here, the place was buzzing just the other day!! Come on folks, get behind me for a February cold chase... Will it, prey for it, dance for it! Possible early talk of an SSW!! We could do with it folks, and would certainly make Feb more exciting.... Never say never..
  5. 16 likes
    Putting aside the Indiana Jones and the search for snow ! The high pressure could well bring some pretty low temps especially for southern central areas . Could be some sub zero maxima where fog doesn’t clear . There could be some hoar frost which will bring a festive feel to things .
  6. 14 likes
    A decent set of ensembles for here with a few -10 850s P4 is what I am looking for more of linking in with what I discussed last night about phase 7 and heights going toward Greenland and a NE / E flow also the GEFS keen on a possible displacement event in the strat though given how sketchy the models have been with regards to the PV strength will need to see this come into nearer time frames before any confidence.
  7. 13 likes
    I was driving into this earlier. Shots taken by my neighbour Sarah:
  8. 13 likes
    Looks like finally this winter both the AO and NAO are about to shift more neutral or even hopefully negative What also looks more interesting is this chart from Weather is cool showing wind anomalies at different heights above 60N. Look at the far right of the chart. Is that the first signs of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming showing up for the end of January
  9. 12 likes
    18z suite. Op, Control and 14 out of 20 GEFS members hit -8 850s or lower on the south coast. Consistency required but as I mentioned earlier this looks very feasible.
  10. 11 likes
    SPECIAL REQUEST MR HIGH PRESSURE at your next junction to avoid spillage of toys and wet towels as well as a huge traffic que of disappointed coldies
  11. 11 likes
    The GFS 06Z does think so. A blowy sort of North-Westerly flow with 850hpa temperatures supportive of sleet and snow showers to low levels. Nice to see one of these quality Polar Maritimes flows creep into the 4 to 5 day range. And then into the 0 hour range (Edit: mb018538 beat me to it) Whatever happens regarding the likely UK High Pressure next week, some chilly, drier and frosty weather for some of us to look forward to.
  12. 10 likes
    Another pic of the cracking sunset tonight, looking west from above Lairg
  13. 9 likes
    Would add that that sunset was memorable, only caught it from the glamourous vista of Inverness asda car park and up the hill on the way home when it wasn’t as great Yes HC, definite hints of mammatus, someone posted this on Twitter from the town
  14. 9 likes
    It did look hopeful for a time that the MJO would go through 7 and get to phase 8 at decent amplitude, phases that at good enough amplitude can lead to northern/high lat blocking and -NAO further down the line, given the lag of 10-12 days. However, it looks like we are getting the response of the wave through phase 6 leading to blocking high pressure over the UK/Europe (MLB) but the response from the move into phase 7 is looking rather muted in recent model output. One explanation, that I read by Isotherm a US weather expert on another forum, is that the wave of strongest convection over the Pacific is tending to be along the equator and the southern hemisphere tropics of the Pacific - so this is having less impact on the upper flow of the northern hemisphere than was hoped. Given the background state of the strong TPV since mid-December, what little amplification is being made from the convection in the colder phases is having a very muted effect. Couple this with convection firing over the Maritime continent (warm phases) and the ongoing effects if the Indian Ocean Dipole - it appears the MJO does not want hang around or get into colder phases at decent amplitude this winter. But prefers to spend longer in warmer phases. With regards to hoping the eQBO will help us out, again, not as clear cut, yes the QBO is easterly high up in the stratosphere, but it still has yet to descend lower down into the lower stratosphere and certainly far from denting the strong zonal winds at high latitudes - though signs it will do this through February, so may help weaken the PV with time and perhaps allow northern blocking as we end winter. The models still forecasting a decrease in 10 hPa zonal winds in the stratosphere, but its dropping from a very high spike and so forecast, so far, only get to the climatology average - given zonal winds tend to drop anyway on average as we go towards March. So where does that leave us? Nothing showing from the main drivers to change the pattern for a few weeks, though worth keeping an eye on the blocking centred over central Canada perhaps extending its influence towards NW Atlantic and even western Greenland - this *could* be enough to orientate an increasingly cyclonic NW to SE flow across NW Europe as we end January..
  15. 9 likes
    ECM 0z @ 240 ECM 12z @ 240 ECM 12 z uppers @ 240 A little bit better at the end from ECM 12z in comparison to the 0z but hardly enough to get carried away with yet. The good news is that the GFS has been pointing at a cold Northwesterly for 28th / 29th Jan too for several runs . So there is still hope GEFS 12z control run @ 240
  16. 9 likes
    That naughty polar vortex is going to be largely displaced to Eurasia in coming days what does that mean? Well mid Atlantic blocking will be under less fire. The strong vortex could assist with cold trough sinking into Europe with unusually cold air to tap into, we will see what happens but I’d say N/NW cold snap likely. How cold? And for how long? Probably not for long. What is clear there is some very cold air available potential for something more than standard.
  17. 9 likes
    Hows this for keen. Local farmer resumed ploughing the field in darkness at 6am. Grabbed this picture 5 minutes ago. What a trooper!
  18. 9 likes
    Almost halfway through the meteorological winter and there has hardly been anything or nothing other than sun, cloud, rain. Few frosts, no sleet, snow, hardly any hail, hardly any gales, little fog. Its been as bad as the first half of the previous winter. At this stage last winter, we were starting to see wintry prospects in the charts.
  19. 8 likes
    It's the extent of the yellows and oranges that's got my interest piqued...Sooner or later (whenever the tPV starts to break down) all that warm air is going to flood north...?
  20. 8 likes
    It really is tough for coldies so far this Winter. Again as the latest GFS shows the NH jet flow is so flat with little ridging anywhere keeping the cold bottled up above 60n much of the time.The high will at least give a mostly dry few days with some night frosts and daytime temperatures near normal so at least feeling a bit more seasonal.
  21. 8 likes
  22. 8 likes
    Well at least it starts to kick in at D7/D8 and not right out in deepest FI la la land, so big upgrade on the 18z, not sure if it can be trusted or not but In the past 18z has shown up pattern changes on the odd occasion that have verified so we could be lucky....it would make a welcome change for things to go our way for once in a blue moon.
  23. 8 likes
    Both gefs and eps in fi take the tpv slowly back to Canada .... it may not be all of it which means there is an opportunity for a split if the ridges get their act together as it stretches ......possible but unlikely at the moment
  24. 8 likes
    Sting Jet for sure. Ramped up even more an hour later
  25. 8 likes
    this 'notable' high pressure cell being modelled is a classic for give and take. ..it's nailed in format. ..but not in placements. ..and with gravitated as we move on. .and minimal changes will mean massive ramifications. ..as it eventually makes for a transition stage. ..and will be a highlight to look for through both raws and supports heading into the weekend! !!! any surge northwards then- we can gain @the pole. ..and swerve eyes to the left! !!.. at least it will feel like January. ...by any possible point making within reasonable frames and evolution. ...as above.
  26. 7 likes
    Oooohhhhh GFS you are a tease, but I do love you...
  27. 7 likes
    First snow fall of this boring winter so far if ECM t240 comes off Booooooom !!!
  28. 7 likes
    Purely as an observer; during the past few years..... internet weather 'hero worship' has seemingly become a growth industry. JC was always being touted as some kind of weather 'god'. Plenty of other global weather gurus touting themselves on twatter; often quoted in model tweets thread. A little bit of due diligence wouldnt go amiss
  29. 7 likes
    Entering what is generally the coldest core period of the year, mid Jan - mid Feb, and also a time when the atlantic begins to quieten from its early winter stirrings (not all years, but typically it does).. What do we have in store, a change to something a bit colder in the nearer term, and thankfully something quieter as well, with a significant sudden surge of high pressure building through the UK this weekend, up to close to 1050mb which is very strong. A return to air frost and sunshine, which will be welcomed by many I'm sure, after weeks of mainly dull overcast drab dank skies. The models continue to show the direction of travel as we move through latter part of the month is from the NW, the high set to back south west, with the strong jet riding over the top. No surprise to see the models showing some potent polar air invading the UK in the 10 day timeframe, much will depend on the position of building heights, if these stay closer to the UK, then a glancing not quite so cold flow will envelop, a bit further west then a preety cold blast will follow suit. Longer term, we could see the high ridge back in again.
  30. 7 likes
  31. 7 likes
    850s not very important in Jan under anticyclone. Temps at surface very cold on GFS.12Z
  32. 7 likes
    Absolutely agreed. You can't go wrong with seasoned ash. I can burn it in the stove for days, no smoke at the flue top and the stove glass remains soot free. I never have to clean the stove glass. Crystal clear. The neighbours stoves down the road belch white/grey smoke non stop. Christ knows what they're burning.
  33. 6 likes
    Crapuweather strikes again! Their seasonal forecasts are absolutely terrible, last summers one was awful as well. It’s been unsettled here for sure, but stormy? We’ve only had 2 named storms....well down on previous winters. The rest of it is cack too. Best to ignore it really.
  34. 6 likes
    The year without a winter just gone from Autumn to spring. Certainly going to be a Snow free Jan for us to go along with December. A dreadful winter none winter.
  35. 6 likes
    Today's GFS 00Z not looking to good for my, or anyone else's, snow chances...?
  36. 6 likes
    When the trust in winter is at the bottom .....is help from above (the stratosphere) needed .
  37. 6 likes
    Some better news for the east coast of Australia with some heavy rain and thunderstorms
  38. 6 likes
    Currently 2C and snowing slightly at Cairngorm base station:
  39. 6 likes
  40. 6 likes
    Some nice settled bright weather on offer this weekend which will be very welcome to many i'm sure, also looking quite chilly in the morning!
  41. 6 likes
    If you like the odd frost and dry weather then EC looks ok until the PV pushes the heighths Into Europe at day ten.for me it's boring and eating up winter
  42. 6 likes
    Sunny here so far this morning at 3C. Showers are mainly in the West and it is the West and Central Highlands that are getting most of the snow showers. Here is a view towards Schiehallion looking East from Loch Rannoch showing snow showers over the hill. Snow level appears to be around or just over 200 mtrs asl.
  43. 6 likes
    GFS 0z @144 UKMO 0z @144 ECM 0z @144 GEM 0z @144 So a cold UK High looks the most likely outcome around 19th Jan according to most of the 0z runs. Can the High then orientate into a more favourable position for longer term cold after that ? The GEM tries to build a ridge NE at 168 but then flattens. ( below ) GEM 0z @168 The GFS 6z ( just out ) looks to do something similar @ 168 ( below ) GFS 6z @168 Overall Summary , Cold , Dry , Frosty with further chances down the line towards the end of the month.
  44. 5 likes
    very much continuation of the theme. . and of course 850s will be tempered. .although perhaps not quite as usual. . and again let's get the flow in...the look at the deeper dynamics! ! it's cold and frosty hp. ..transferring to milder wetter mobility. ..then I'm quite sure a deflection to such as the snap! !.. I'm going for a potent north westerly. ..with a possibility of switching northerlys. whatever. ..some meat on the bone. [email protected]
  45. 5 likes
    Got about 3cms from snow showers last night/this morn, so ach... only about 2&1/2 feet less than Newfoundland Within another dross winter for snow lovers this week has seen some progress, within the highlands at least. More snow visible on the glen floor than higher, the hills got blown to bits this week Approaching what is often the snowiest period of a winter, Jan in to feb, yet given April 3rd was one of the snowiest days of last year these norms seem less normal or relevant. The weather for the upcoming week looks pedestrian, hopefully it’s a lull before something more juicy arrives for everyone
  46. 5 likes
    Stunning day out there today. Refreshing to see clear blue skies , so much better than the mehfest of late. totally get why the downbeat vibe in the MOD thread , good to see some of our more learned posters from here trying to inject some positivity there. but it’s still only 18th of January, model accuracy falls of a cliff like a drunken lemming after about 7 days so ........
  47. 5 likes
    Morning all Looking across to the Cowal Peninsula there is snow! Snow line is roughly 400 meters and above. (As usual) Plenty of showers moving through in the past few hours and still going at the moment. Heading out shortly for a proper look as snow is hard to come by this Winter! Lowland snowfall wise end of January still looks interesting - North West/West looks best but even here it will only be for about 12 to 24 hours! (If it even becomes reality and no doubt you will need to live above 200 meters for snow to settle ) ECM: GFS for the same timeframe: As ever we shall see what happens - grim Winter so far from a cold/snow perspective and not much cheer for the long term currently. Glencoe is looking good if you seek a proper snow fix! Webcams - Glencoe Mountain Resort WWW.GLENCOEMOUNTAIN.CO.UK Click to refresh the page Click a thumbnail to view larger webcam view or scroll down for slideshow. Upper Depth 85cm Lower Depth 45cm Have a good weekend!
  48. 5 likes
  49. 5 likes
    So despite a week of ECM "potential" D10 charts we still await that potential! Maybe today's 0z: Looking at GEM and GFS for the same time, the ECM looks to be on its own: Knowing how poor ECM is at that range maybe no surprise. Clearly we have to wait for models to get some coherence for post-D8 before we can write off January, but probabilities suggest, as many of us think, is that February will be the start of winter if it happens? Records suggest the US has its 3rd warmest winter on record (mid-point), and the theory that low solar activity = more blocking is looking dubious. CET of 3.9c above the average at mid-month sums it up. Anyway the GEFS are all over the place so little point looking into FI, so until advised we should assume tPV the main driver and just hope this current intense WWB does indeed promote a true MJO signal after the lag, before it declines (GFS) in phase 7 (though other models suggest it may enter phase 8 [Australian model]). Other positive background signal and assuming the tPV starts to wind down as expected maybe a late winter still possible. Of course, the experts could be missing something and the rest of the winter may suck as well!
  50. 5 likes
    latest MJO - come on we need that blocking
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