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Took this picture of a developing funnel cloud over the South Pennines about 90 minutes ago. It was a few miles south of here and to far away to know if it reached the ground but a good bit of timing to see it.

This is the footage from the 2nd May storms. A couple of things I noted The lightning on the Eastbourne storm did not appear to be as frequent on my video as I remembered, although the thunder was constant and that got picked up well by my camera. Either my camera didn't pick up all the lightning or I thought it was more frequent than it was. There was more visible IC lightning on the Brighton storm and as I was driving through the Surrey storms than I remembered seeing. The storm over Watford in the early morning seemed better than I remembered. I was quite tired by the time I was filming this though and it was also only 11⁰c and so it felt cold. I think part of me wanted to just get into my warm bed The video is long!

Does anyone know what this tornado looking thing is?

Hi All, I finally got round to editing the footage I captured while out chasing Thursdays storms. My first time photographing storms at Portsdown and I can't see it being my last, shooting from a higher vantage point is a game changer. If anyone can recommend similar locations with decent parking and high unobstructed views it would be much appreciated! ideally anywhere west of London and south of the M4. Can't wait for the next round of storms

Just passed my theory test for driving. Could well be storm chasing by next year.

For the shorter range, worth looking at UKV for the next few days on temperatures. Temperatures for Wednesday through Sunday afternoons below at 850hPa and then at the surface. In short, a growing tendency to bring increasingly warm air in at 850hPa. Notable increases in predicted temperatures compared even to yesterday's output - getting 10-11C at 850hPa by Sunday and temperatures quite widely into the mid-20s. Day by day, UK maxima are projected by the model from at 20C, 22C, 23C, 25C and by Sunday 27C, and again if usual slight underestimation were to apply maybe 28C somewhere on Sunday? Worth remarking actually how warm this is for so early in the year. For a bit of context the earliest 30C ever achieved is on the 12th May, so we're only a couple of degrees off all time records for the time of year. It would only take a very slight upgrade to put 30C on the table for Sunday. What a turn around from late last week, when there was talk of temperatures being limited to low 20s only. On Saturday and Sunday those temperatures should be reached by 9am if UKV is right!

A short but sweet one today. This is what so many of us have been looking forward to seeing, cross-model agreement coming into the close range for a good few days of dry, lovely warm afternoons and early evenings. Yeah… Here at day 5, 0z ECM op or the 0z GEM op / 6z GFS op at various stages of day 6 - a frequent 19-21 degrees for very many, even for us in the hills, and a respectable mid to high teens at worst for many others, come the end of the working week and into next weekend. Nothing spectacular I know but at this stage, admittedly easily pleased and why not? A very good opportunity to recharge. Plenty of time each day to take a hard-earned cup of tea outside and enjoy it without that draughty old wind licking at our delicate bits. Ooh err.

Rain All Night I agree with your suggestion of some promise the week after next. Next week looks like a return to unsettled, but after that there is a signal for summer patterns to start to get established. Just looking at the ECM clusters this morning, in the extended T264+ there is a really decent looking 20 member cluster 1: The other two clusters are more mixed. But I’ve also noticed the predominance of red borders recently - blocking to our east, and some blue borders (+NAO). Very little of the -NAO or Atlantic ridge patterns which suggests that the high latitude blocking which has been apparent quite a bit since the SSW is losing traction now in favour of more favourable summer patterns, of which the broader Scandi block pattern (red border) holds the most potential, with the +NAO pattern (blue border) likely to deliver more of a NW/SE split favouring the SE, interspersed with unsettled spells. We’re getting there!

Witnessed my first thunderstorm of the year yesterday, as one exploded over Cheltenham, after chasing the storm over Worcester earlier and losing hope after it died off. Great start!

Is it just me or is the word "trough" one of the ugliest words in the English dictionary, up there with the likes of "moist" & "mucus" lol. If I see another post with "UK trough" in it, I'm gonna scream!

Just driven over the tops to pick something up from Todmorden and managed to pull up and take a picture of what looks like a funnel cloud somewhere probably around Blackstone edge area. a long way up so probably didn’t reached the ground but not everyday you spot one and it shows the instability we have around today. dry here so far though.

Flash bang flash bang etc You're pretty much spot on, was looking SW-W towards Canterbury where the cell was. Managing to avoid nearly all the rain certainly helped a nice clear slot into the cells that went by to my north and south lol

Day 4 and 5 on the 0z EPS are great charts for the UK and Ireland. High time (sorry!). But subtle changes can make all the difference. As pointed out a few weeks ago, the 5-ridge hemispheric pattern is getting reduced to a 4-ridge pattern at times, and it’s happening again here. If we look out west, the ridge running down through eastern Canada to the Gulf of Mexico at day 4 is cut off at day 5. Looking at the jet stream on the 0z GEFS, a pulse of energy over the US at day 4 leads to an extension into the Atlantic at day 5. This throws the models into some disarray for the following days - by day 7, the EPS forms an authentic Atlantic basin low that ultimately trundles through to the UK and Ireland by day 10 as it weakens… …while the GEFS only flirts with this formation at day 7, producing a shallower trough approaching Western Europe by day 10 with heights keen to build once more behind it over the Atlantic, the ridges much more pronounced than on the EPS looking like squeezing out the trough quite quickly. By then, the EPS has reverted to 5 ridges, though the two on the Atlantic side are weaker, while the GEFS sticks with 4, which allows stronger Atlantic ridges, the presence or absence of the Kazakh-Siberian ridge acting as the compensating factor. At the moment, it doesn’t look like the 5-wave pattern can sustain 5 strong ridges to pin the pattern down, while the slowly waning PV is clearly still able to generate pulses of energy running through the jet stream that are injecting a touch more mobility into the Atlantic at times. This is keeping the pattern just a tad flatter, restricting the building of high pressure to modest cells in the 1020’s mb ranges, meaning that they are susceptible to being pushed on after just a few days by even a modest injection of energy into the jet stream, a hemispheric pattern that will serve to keep the weather at our end of the Atlantic unremarkable for now - though nevertheless with it being May, this will at times be very pleasant indeed. Have a lovely bank holiday weekend.

Wade 10th September 2023. It was an absolute belter.

Wow, this thread is busy today, I'm having a mooch around Buxton, got a long sleeve fleece on but I'm not warm enough. Warm when sun bursts through, but it's all too brief. A carpet of daisies looked like fresh snow.

North Yorkshire earlier... https://www.facebook.com/NorthYorkshireWeatherUpdates/videos/746529750837359

Convective Outlook ️ A convergence zone may force showers along an increasingly moist airmass zone, some of which may become thunderstorms. With strong lapse-rates helping lift at the surface helped by surface heating which also forces 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE and 600+ J/KG of MLCAPE. Weak shearing keeps the showers pulse-type and limits their height potential and also ability to become significant. Hail risk is relatively low then despite helpful background signals, mostly 1-2cm hail appears possible. Saturation is high limiting lightning risk despite strong showers being possible. With weak CAPE and small storms heights, the lightning risk appears to be rather sporadic and unorgani sed.

For those interested in storms further afield, a major tornado outbreak is possible in the USA later today, which you can discuss and follow here Closer to home, @Nick F has issued a storm forecast for today: Forecast Details Upper low will be slow-moving across northern France on Monday, with an upper and surface trough extending north over England & S Scotland and a ridge of high pressure to the west over Ireland. Cold mid-level temperatures across much of mainland UK today (-20 to -23C at 500 hPa) will create steep lapse rates, which with surface heating and breeze convergence in slack pressure pattern, will support heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop through the day. Risk of a storm will be fairly widespread but scattered inland across England and S Scotland, more organised rain moving in across SE England this morning may hinder surface heating, but even here, a thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out, as rain turns more showery in nature this afternoon. As convective cells will be slow-moving - there is a risk of localised flooding where rainfall is heavy for a prolonged time. Storms may produce hail and also funnel clouds along breeze convergence.

GFS 6z is one of the best runs I've seen in a long time for prolonged dry weather, albeit probably very mild to warm-ish rather than very warm. Interesting to see first signs that after a weakening in pressure around day 7 or beyond, that there is a further signal for a build in pressure beyond that. High builds in at day 3: Still going at day 5: And day 7: Possible slight weakening at day 10: A slightly more showery interlude at day 12: By day 15, another high builds: And even at day 16, the low to our NW will likely miss or just graze the north of the UK: This signal for a further build in pressure is beginning to be seen on the ensembles, e.g. here on the GFS 00z with the mean having a renewed rise in pressure towards the middle of May: All a very long way off, but encouraging that we have a generally very mild to warm and largely but not entirely dry week to come, and then beyond that we can already see a signal for another high after any breakdown. Those developments a very long way off of course but nice to see a run that doesn't see a full-blown Atlantic breakthrough.

A few daffodil pics from last month........

Almost at 22'c today which makes it the hottest day of the year so-far, the forecast was originally going for a max of 18'c with milky-overcast skies so we've faired well this afternoon in parts of the NW. It feels more uplifting spotting the first Swifts flying about and being able to finally head out for a wander without worrying about needing a jacket or jumper.

Well gotta celebrate the one year anniversary of this today, still remember it clear as day. I've attached the slow-mo for the first time to see the CG's in detail. YouCut_20240323_223927121.mp4

Fascinating structure

Wonderful day here, plenty of sunshine, some fair cirrus and cumulus and some wind (though it could be warmer) went out for some countryside walk today and im happy i did.

The unsettled spell looks fairly short lived on the GFS 6z, let's hope so.

I’d exercise caution I have noticed UKV sometimes gets carried away, general models supporting 9-10C 850hPa temps further SE not exceptional. I can’t see 30C being a possibility with the air mass, typically minimum for 30C it needs to be 12C, I recall in summer 2018 this was enough at times, but there were drought conditions, soils were very dry and of course we were not as early in year. Not just locally but what makes is even more unlikely to our near south, France also has very saturated soils, which is not usual for the time of year. I’d say we probably will be limited to 27-28C which of course is still very warm.

Blossom has gone nuts on my Wisteria. Absolutely loaded with bees as well.

Can't really complain about the output this morning, we seem to (hopefully) be on a countdown to a week of settled and increasingly warm weather. UKMO ECM GFS GEM

Well another dull morning to wake up to..10mm more rain having fallen during the night...over 45mm of rain just in the last 3 days here !... Are we still on course for some more settled weather...?..yes as others have stated looking better for next week...after the bank hol of course.. Latest gefs mspl goes from this on Monday.. ..to this by Wednesday... ...rise in pressure pretty certain now.. .. ...orientation not though which will determine how settled and warm it will be..however temps above average looks a fair bet according to gefs 0z 850s mean heading into mid May and beyond.. ...also noticeable the rise in minema over the period.. ..so while the week after next is still uncertain re wet/dry hopefully there wont be any shocks now re colder temps again.. ..indeed the gfs control going for the heat later in the run.. ..trough over spain and wrap around of warm air to the north..like current set up however further south.. ..hoping the easterly 'rain' train terminates soon as ground is like putty and difficult to work with when gardening..so...drier weather...bring it on..cant come soon enough..have a good day and good weekend if you can...

Morning campers. Awoke like a bolt this morning, zero coffee needed to rid myself of the sluggishness. Only been about 3/4 warm, sunny days and it's already working wonders on my energy-levels and general feeling of wellbeing after such a grey, wet and gloomy period. Incredibly how healing the sun really is, it's no wonder why it was universally worshiped as the main 'god' in pretty much every pre-modern culture. Blue this morning is vivid. Love it.

Curry in Not such a hurry lamb vindaloo in the garden… more evenings like this please Now for watering plant pots and lighting fire pit

markyo at least you only have a few miserable month until the beloved cold and rain returns. Most of us have 8-10months of miserable conditions…

Big overreaction from some this morning. The positioning of the low is still changing from run to run so no point jumping to conclusions yet. Only yesterday it was being shown as further to our south west which would allow warmth to continue albeit much more unsettled.

To be fair, I do remember seeing a couple days ago the first idea of a warmer pulse of air and commenting on it, though at that time it was on the 10th, now it's probably around the 12th. Taking my usual look at the GFS (left) and ECM (right), they show a general agreement until the 13th. High pressure naturally relaxing back eastward and drawing up a very warm south-easterly flow, though with weakening pressure a risk of things going BANG and maybe more general thundery rain. How they individually handle weakening pressure by the 16th is different though. The GFS is keen to send the low into Europe and build a ridge in, possibly dry and warm weather after a thundery break. The ECM is much different and forms a major low pressure system which would risk further deluges and a wet May. Both ensembles show signs of at least weak pressure over the country by Thursday the 16th. At the moment it seems this is the signal so by day 10 it could remain quite thundery with some torrential downpours and longer spells of rain around. Either way though it's all looking warmer than average. Even if something like the ECM came off it would probably return warmer than average means due to mild nights. Things can change though. We've seen before a run pick something up and then be right so don't discount a more settled look, but to me I think unsettled, and possibly thundery, is a relatively safe look for mid-month.

danm I think some CET records could be under threat if this warmth persists. Check out my post in the CET thread but the 06z GFS is similar to the 00z EC control, which has a CET of 14.9C up to the 16th. This is all clearly a fine line because if the low ends up sat over us it will be a very different story but the sinking of the low southwards keeps warm air entrenched. Also just a side note but EC00z ensemble member 10 is the most extreme I have seen for the UK. It constantly has the warm air to the south feeding in for the entire later stages of the run, elevating maxima to the high 20s widely with minima in the high teens. After the 16th there are consistently daily CET returns in the low to mid 20s. Won't come off but I had to point it out because it was extraordinary.

A horrible night for the people of Barnsdall and Bartlesville OK. There are a couple of videos taken from the Hampton Inn, Bartlesville. Tornado sirens wailing at the beginning, then power flashes and the siren stops as the big tornado moves into town. Video below (strong language as you might expect!). There were a few weaker tornadoes elsewhere but it feels like things could have been a lot worse given the environment and what the models and Storm Prediction Center were forecasting.

Runs this AM do seem to be dropping a trough to our SW for next. Will turn more unsettled relative to this week, but could also be warm and thundery with sunny spells at times too.

Some interesting trends to pull out of the GFS 12z temperature ensembles this evening. Firstly, a lot of disagreement on the timing of the end of the warm influence and a return to something closer to average. The mean starts to reduce around the beginning of next week on the 13th, but there are some runs that extend the warmth well beyond that to as far as the 15th, and in fact go well above 10C at 850hPa. After that, a lot of scatter with likely options close to average but again plenty of very warm options available. In terms of temperature forecasts, I still continue to think UKV is the best model for shorter term - it has the better resolution and is meant to be more accurate over the UK, and I usually think it does its job better than the others. Here is today's afternoon forecast from the UKV 03z this morning, followed by ECM 00z and GFS 06z attempts next to it: And here is verification from Meteociel: It's pretty clear from that I think that UKV performed best - ECM was far too low with temperatures in the SW, GFS was too low with the absolute max, and UKV was probably the closest to getting it all right. So, with that in mind, we can now reach Saturday with the UKV 15z, so here are the afternoon temperatures for every day up to and including Saturday: So, overall consensus has Friday and Saturday as the warmest days, with a gradual build of heat through the week. 23C the highest max on those charts, but a very widespread 20C or higher towards the end of the week. The idea that we'd have 850s in the 5-10C range and temperatures limited to high teens in most places never seemed credible to me as others had also pointed out, and UKV dispenses with that idea tonight. Again UKV did under-read by 1C, so I do wonder whether somewhere will get to a sneaky 24C. The 850hPa temperatures for the week also illustrate this quite well - just gently warming up throughout the week. Here are 850s for tomorrow afternoon, compared to Saturday afternoon. Tomorrow warmth focused on southern and western regions, Wednesday central and eastern excluding far N England and Scotland. Thursday sees more of a N to S split with the dividing line near the Humber. Friday warm for almost all of England and Wales, and Saturday includes Scotland as well. Of course exact details are always subject to last minute change and can even become a nowcast situation, but in terms of the overall maxes if not the exact placement, I think we can be pretty confident that most areas will be seeing low 20s towards the end of the week, and mid 20s definitely can't be ruled out in a few favoured spots. Summary In the short term, lots of dry and increasingly warm weather around. Uncertainty around the duration, but looks to last with some certainty to the end of the week, and possibly even beyond that. After that a bit of a cool down is likely, but warm runs are popping up again beyond that. Everything in these charts is indicative of a warm week to come, and likely a very warm first half of May overall for many areas.

Nice view of storms from here, heading across Stratford upon Avon area.

Taking advantage of the quietest day of the weekend and sitting outside the local pub. There is gentle breeze blowing from west to east and it's clearly blowing a clearance in here from the west. I'm guessing any convergence is east of here into West Yorkshire. Looking north it's easy to spot the shower tops over North Yorkshire and the Dales.

Aurora timelapse from 22:41 - 23:49 BST last night 1_1.mp4

My current thoughts are for an area of messy convective cells with sporadic lightning developing around the Pennines drifting west and south west through the evening. As Sea breeze dies could be a chance of them making it west of M6 corridor by sunset. Probably a case of daughter cell outflow creation.

A bright morning and feeling quite warm. I have a feeling though that we are not going to stay dry all day today, unlike yesterday, but not a bad Bank Holiday weekend here on the whole.

iand61 went to Manchester Saturday aft. Felt a bit like Croc Dundee. My the place has changed.

Morning to All. Sun and milky blue skies, yay. Off for a walk around Etherow Country Park mid morning so that the forecasted heavy showers miss us. Managed first bbq yesterday.

Really nice ECM up to day 9 even thinks about ridging in the Azores between day 7 and 8 fails on this run and day 10 is woeful with trough to our east… however I’m sure this breakdown is being pushed back…;)

Dry and sunny should be nice warm Sunday… off to garden centre for a few bits then pop to supermarket… gardening day and cooking Mexican lamb and chicken tacos Happy Cinco de Mayo

Nice weather for ducks here this morning!

Morning. Tis a bit grim, dark, misty and damp. Lots of snails around the garden this morning. 8.6°C, I've got the heating on for a quick blast. I'm buying a tent today, for when I'm out on long hikes, there, that's jinxed our summer now. 🏕

I always find it a massive shame when you get days in May, June & July with zero sunshine. It's so unseasonal & just doesn't look correct. I do wish our rubbish climate had far, FAR more sunshine because the past couple of years have been extremely testing. I think the entire country would be a lot more happier & optimistic if sunshine levels were about 50% more than average, not including temperatures, rainfall etc, just more sun PLEASE. In Winter, what would look & feel better? A gorgeous deep blue sky on an icy morning but with the warmth of the sun hitting your skin, just enough to still be able to sit outside with a morning cuppa or walk around with your significant other at a fayre or market, soaking up the festive vibes or- Mild, exceptionally dark & wet conditions that make venturing outside completely unpleasant. In Autumn, a misty start that evaporates into a lovely pleasant & mild day with beautiful blue skies giving the perfect backdrop to the yellows & reds of falling leaves, or- Mild, grey & wet drizzle reminding you of the many months of dark, gloomy weather to get through just to have a 50-50 shot at a nice Spring & the sight of another blue sky. In Spring, a crisp morning with a nip in the air, getting warmer & warmer in the strengthening sun with beautiful blue skies as you watch leaves & trees begin to bloom, listen to the chorus of bird songs, relaxing your mind & soul with the excitement of the months to come, or- The melancholic sounds of birds fleeting in the backdrop of a dark, overcast & miserable day, completely indistinguishable from the darkest days of Winter. In Summer, the glorious blue sky & beautiful warm temperatures give a joyous vibe & energy to everyone around you as people are laughing & playing on the beach, people are enjoying a pint in the pub gardens & the kids are walking around with ice cream while the adults have their seafront fish & chips, or- Overcast all day as people sit inside a pub, with no difference to a day in January & the streets are almost empty with not an ice cream van in sight, nor a single soul on the beach & an eerie silence resonates around you. The SUN is the life giver, it gives us energy, positivity, happiness, peace & without it, the world just feels like a dark, soul-less place with indistinguishable seasons and lacking that bright warm hug that sometimes, we all need! I'm a simple man, if I could have ONE wish, it would be for at least 50% more sunshine than we currently get. Watch how people would suddenly become a lot more positive & happy in life. So please, our yellow friend in the sky, come say hello to us in the UK more often, we miss you like crazy!