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A beautiful, lovely, cold, crisp and bright February morning here.

Let's hope the GFS has picked up on a new trend as we head into the second week of May:

Tonight we seem to not have a great outlook in the short to medium term. After we get the current cool cyclonic period out of the way over the weekend (unfortunately a pretty dreadful one for most), into early next week we have a warmer pattern developing for Tuesday and Wednesday, but nothing particularly impressive. Raw maxes of 17C on Tuesday and 20C on Wednesday, perhaps in practice 18-19C and 21-22C. Exact figures probably dependent on timing of cloud and rain. Wednesday possibly a new warmest day of the year, but nothing out of the ordinary for the start of May. However, further into May we have a significant pattern change on the GFS tonight. In the extended range, the 12z at around day 12-14 sets up a high over and to the east of the UK. It's not the strongest, but especially eastern areas you would think stay mostly dry under that. The temperatures are nothing spectacular to be fair as the core of the resulting heat plume is away to our south, but a number of days with very pleasant afternoon temperatures in a row. Of course, this is a long way off. In terms of the ensembles, the GFS still isn't that interested, but it has mostly erased the cooldown after the initial warmup around the middle of next week, and a bit of a signal to follow the GFS OP later on to a lesser extent, so I guess already an improvement on what was showing 2-3 days ago. Summary Still a long way from any sort of heatwave or anything particularly notable, but the pattern on the GFS 12z OP would be pleasant enough. Certainly a welcome improvement. From a personal perspective, I'll be paying close attention to forecasts for May Day and the following week (commencing 6th) as I've booked it off work.

Cumbria cold pole synoptics, light northerly drift and cold uppers overhead recipe for freezing nights. Shap as low as -6.2 degrees. These are the synoptics that in winter would deliver ice days and widespread double digit minus mins. Alas its late April. Despite lots of sun out there, the air is notably cold.

If I don’t get early finish Friday timed just right and I hit the school traffic then my 20 minute drive home can take 50 minutes and today was one of them but managed it and with typical April weather. dry and sunny mixed with the briefest of heavy showers and even a bit of hail mixed in. nice again now though with a bit of warmth in the sunshine but coolish in the shade. hopefully we’ll miss the weekends threat of rain and it will maintain the same track that it would if it was mid winter and snow forecast.

Stayed mainly dry, bar a few blobs of rain this afternoon. The sun (when it appears) plus the lack of wind means that it feels a lot warmer than it was in North Yorkshire where I was located over the past few days.

Big fat blobs of rain now, had stayed dry, slight wiff of petrichor.

A chilly start to the morning in Buxton as the temperature overnight dropped down to -0.4'c and DCC were proactive in laying some grit down on the main roads before sunrise in anticipation of potential ice, I was hearing the 'clinks' against the car and it wasn't until the ice-warning came on the dashboard that I put two+two together. Currently at 9.9'c although it's still feeling bitterly cold out there.

Remember in winter showers have to survive all the way from the north Sea as they don't develop over land but now they are developing over land instead so can start much closer to us.

More cloud and feeling chilly yet again in west London, I’ve gone down with a yucky cold to add to the joy. Another frost in Czechia, apparently lots of fruit crops damaged, especially apples and grapes for wine. Late SSWs can do one

Frosty roofs this morning but the best bit, it's sunny and dry.

Windermere rain shield, can see lots of green and yellow on radar all around me, and showers in the air, yet we are still dry, only a matter of time before heavens open possibly. Its a chilly 10 degrees, another widespread air frost tonight . Turning into a notably frosty cold spell.

Sunny morning clouded up a little but when sun is out you can feel the strength this time of year… couple of hours gardening… walked into town first thing… getting over 24-48 hour lurgy I most likely caught in Londonford on Sunday/monday… do it all again in two weeks time…going to Fulham game ️️️️

Penrith Snow Bit of an exaggeration- the ensembles are actually not far off average for 850 hPa temps after a warmer spell next week (that admittedly might be tempered by rain and cloud). Some people have the perception that a Greenland High always leads to cool conditions in the UK. It doesn't guarantee it at all.

Turning into a much sunnier day than was forecast.

I came back from a very cold and blowy North Yorkshire last night. A heavy shower as I came round the south side of Manchester but had cleared by the time I arrived home. A lovely start to today and, unlike North Yorkshire, no cold wind to peg the temperatures later. Fingers crossed for the washing outside.

Alderc 2.0 Oh that's awful! What a disappointment for you. Hope you start to feel better soon and IF the weather improves, you'll be able to recuperate in your sunny garden.

Spring may have sprung. Wife’s photo as usual.

Frosty start and sunshine,friend who lives in Kelso says they have a little snow

Minimum of 0.9°C here.

Showery morning with a definite hint of sleet first thing, nor surprising as 1c at that time; dry and reasonably sunny from lunchtime onwards. Max of 9c today, nice and warm in the sunshine, frigid in the shade. Some gorgeous cloud formations mid-afternoon... Suie viewpoint lovely as ever this evening (looking north/northeast).

Well im not quite sure how we are missing the showers, Ive run the radar past 2-3 hrs and by slim margins we've stayed dry. Im always perplexed how convection builds out of nowhere, how showers can fizzle in situ as they approach but then 2 miles down the road a mass of convection builds. Its that kind of set up. The chaos of weather. Believe it or not we are on our 7th consecutive day of trace rain, must have been one of driest places last 7 days.

Had Worse well they’re definitely not nesting in our loft this year Some really pretty rhododendron flowers out at the moment in garden… cut a few to put about the house… before pretty much constant showers of hail/rain/graupel… temp dropped from 8/9c to 5/6c… again felt warm in sun this morning & afternoon before showers came..,

Dusting of wet looking snow evident on at least some of the hills around the Vale of Alford first thing this morning. Warming up a bit next week?

Lovely morning. A light frost to start. It’s crazy that we’re forecast showers today from an easterly wind, the flow is light. In winter, any kind of easterly setup doesn’t produce as the Pennines gobble up absolutely everything. Hopefully the forecasts are wrong (as they so often are) and we can stay dry & sunny as you’d expect from an easterly this side of the Pennines.

Chilly start again, low of 0.1c. Sunny spells.

Well i know it is far out in la la land..but hey..what a site for sore eyes from gfs 0z this morning.. ...after next weeks warm up the ens looking distinctly average though .. .. ..actually a little below.. ..pressure.. ...gfs op...you are just cruel !!!

Judging fairly, all months since March 2023 in my area- March 2023- Satanic. Worst March I've ever lived through. April 2023- Nice few days in the first third then utterly forgettable & boring. May 2023- Shockingly bad 1st half, very nice 2nd half. June 2023- Superb! Little did I know this would be as good as it gets. July 2023- Laughable. Worst July I've ever lived through. August 2023- Middle was actually quite nice but bookended by guff either side. September 2023- Stunningly brilliant 1st half, arguably the best weather since August 2022 but the 2nd half was boring. October 2023- Actually a lovely 1st half with sun & warm temperatures but the 2nd half collapsed into a rainfest. November 2023- Can't really bash this one in my area as we managed a sunny day every 3 to 5 days so no endless gloom. Fine! December 2023- One of the dullest months imaginable & one of the worst I've ever lived through. January 2024- Crisp & sunny, no complaints here! February 2024- Worst February I've ever lived through. Mild temps couldn't save this absolute greyfest. March 2024- One of the worst March's I've ever lived through but still a touch better than March 2023. April 2024- Satanic again. Worst April I've ever lived through. SSW- A gloomy-wet lovers bed buddy. So there you have it & the reason for my pessimism lately is this is the 3rd month in a row & 4 out of the last 5 that are contenders for "worst month I've ever lived through" Utterly depressing run of grey-outs & rainfests! In hindsight, the August to November period weren't that bad, just a bit on the wet side but December to April (and counting)... good grief....

Beautiful clear start to the day, was 1°C at 6am but felt colder, couldn't see any frost. Currently still clear, but some cloud appearing in the distant NE.

Both GFS and ECM 12z ensembles look slightly more encouraging perhaps than they did yesterday. The 12z GFS OP was at the top end, but there does seem to be a bit more of a marked warmup around the turn of the month. 20C may well be possible for favoured spots I imagine. The ECM meteogram is introducing more uncertainty as soon as day 5 - still quite a lot to be resolved before we can have any confidence further into May. For what it's worth, UKV has a raw 19C for Tuesday afternoon - of course key uncertainties still to be resolved. Based on these three, a warmup looks to be coming around the turn of the month as I've highlighted previously, but there's nothing I'm seeing that suggests anything notable. Again, easy to forget how fast things are changing at this time of year. By early May date records are around 27-28C, so for a warm spell to be at all notable it would have to hit mid 20s. At the moment we're nowhere near that on any of the model output. Summary Probably increasing chances compared to yesterday of at least a 2-3 day warmup around the turn of the month. Favoured spots have a chance of hitting 20C, possibly feeling warm at times and a welcome improvement if you're looking for warmth, certainly. But still a long way from anything particularly notable at this stage. And I say this as someone who would welcome something significantly warmer - if the output supports it I'll be the first to say so. Further ahead the cooldown beyond the first few days of May now looks a bit more uncertain than it did, but given the uncertainties as soon as day 5 probably not worth losing too much sleep over that at this stage in any case.

Brad Arnold

damianslaw Me too. Supposed tp be raining accordimg to radar. I leep checking but though cold and gloomy it's dry. Had a decent almost dry week plus some sunshine.

Awesome drill bit in Nebraska with very fast forward motion, seems every storms producing tornadoes.

WillinGlossop This is you in action against those mother £uc*a Crows

Just posted about it on the model thread, but a very pleasant later period to tonight's GFS. High pressure dominated for most, consistently warm in the 19-21C range for about five days in a row beginning at about day 11 or 12. Still a long way away of course but nice to see this after the pretty good 00z that was posted earlier. Again though, the difficulty with decent weather lately has been getting it to actually verify, so a long way to go...

SunnyG today has been surprisingly very nice. Lot's of sunshine all day.

Alderc 2.0 I despise those e-scotters and more so many of the people who ride them (excluding those who are considerate). Wishing you a speedy recovery.

Once again the forecasts was very wrong today. This time, for the better, as it's much sunny and drier for longer than was anticipated. I'm at the point where I may as well just ignore the forecasts. Sticking my head out the window tells me all I need to know.

We already do, English wine has existed since Roman times. It's simply not as cheap or high quality as wine from elsewhere. However, I agree that winemaking will boom in the UK as summers continue to warm, winters turn milder and milder and it becomes less viable on the continent. Come the second half of the century, if the SE quadrant is transitioning to Csb which is likely by this point then it will outright be the ideal climate for many grape varieties. Methuselah Nearly, it was a neutral that wanted to be a weak Nina. Aside from that, 1911, 1975, 1976, 2018 and 2022 were all Ninas.

No doubt in time for bloody winter!

Well guys and gals, let's hope the GFS is on to something here for the second week of May. Please lord, deliver this for us...

A brief plume week after next?

It went down to 0.7C last night here.The plant trays all went into the shed and conservatory They are getting a bit leggy they need to go into the ground.These cold nights keep turning up.It needs to stop raining a bit too.The ground needs to dry out and warm up. 0 C forcast for tonight. Will it be the last one ? I wouldn't bet on it.

I seldom say 'I'm glad to be going home' but this was one such occasion. In all my time coming to the NY coast and moors, I've seldom felt so cold and yes, I am well aware of how cold the area can be at this time of the year, given how cold the North Sea is. Yesterday morning, the forecast showers arrived at 8am and, although it brightened up later, the wind was bitingly cold. Back home this morning, it is a beautiful start to the day and no wind to peg the temperatures later on. I'll be back in NY in a couple of weeks.

Looks like another morning to scrape the ice off the windscreen; certainly not unheard of in April but I feel like we’ve had more early morning frosts this month than Jan - March combined. Good to see the forecasters are still pushing the gradual warming next week and the Met extended outlook is talking about warm or even very warm conditions as we going further into next month so maybe we are finally seeing the end of this wretched period of weather and can look forward to venturing out without the need for a jacket. We’re not there yet though and the weekend is looking wet and cold for some although for a change it’s borderline for our our region and we may just about scrape a predominately dry couple of days with the wettest conditions to our south and east.

danm He was talking about it like it is a given and will last as long as the current rubbish we have endured. A couple of sunny and dry 35c days is nothing to worry about when we've had almost constant rain and cloud for months and months, and will have it later in the year too.

Christ, i remember when this forum was weather based and not a resemblance of 'Facebook lite' or Mums.net

WYorksWeather I wouldn’t worry, we’ll be blasted into the furnace via blowtorch southerlys from Africa before long. It happens every summer now so I’m not sure why people get so het up about some cooler weather. I’d snap your hand off for a guaranteed 2/3 day spell of -15 uppers in deep winter.