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  2. 06Z shows models are struggling long term and anything chop and change that far ahead. Stunning end to 06
  3. Evidently they are hedging their bets for 1st half of June. One things for sure, we need this blasted blocking to the NW to get a life and do one...
  4. Lots of panic in here for some reason. For the last two months the weather has changed on pretty much a weekly basis and that looks like continuing. We’ve had cold from the north, rain from the southwest, cloud from the east, now sun, then perhaps a more mobile spell next week and a return of relative cold conditions a possibility into June, then again maybe not. Certainly no Atlantic train in sight - that’s very much reserved for the worst summers.
  5. Sunday 26 May - Tuesday 4 June Showers or perhaps longer spells of rain are likely on Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday in some areas, along with some stronger winds at times. However, most areas will see dry and fine weather for part of the weekend. Temperatures are likely to be near the seasonal average for many, but cool in any rain. It is most likely to be driest in the southeast, where it will be locally warm. The changeable and rather cool weather is likely to continue through the half term week. There will be showers or longer spells of rain at times, including the odd heavy or thundery shower. It will be windy in the south, especially at first, with some heavy rain possible. However, there will be some dry and bright spells too. Wednesday 5 June - Wednesday 19 June There are only weak weather signals for the first half of June, so we can expect a mixture of dry settled periods and changeable spells. In general, drier and less windy weather is more likely across northern parts of the UK, though southern areas can expect some of these quieter spells too. These periods of drier and settled weather will be punctuated by cooler, showery spells as Atlantic weather systems arrive from the west. In the absence of any strong signals, temperatures are forecast to be close to normal for the time of year. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  6. Would be nice but these plumes really seem to be summers winter equivalent of an easterly always deep in FI
  7. Upper Trough based around the Agean would pump warm and wet into Greece with cooler air over Italy. To its north west an upper high.
  8. Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values. A below average month now looking most likely, possibly by more than 0.5C after corrections if the current forecast is to be believed.
  9. Thanks - the Esher / Oxshott / Cobham triangle is a great place to live - I think we put paid to the dirt biking years ago - sorry about that !!!
  10. Obviously good news that it was a bust for the majority of people in the warning areas. Bad news for me however as I was really excited about witnessing a EF4/EF5 tornado on the live streams - I even lied to my girlfriend about having a sore head so I could sleep in our spare room! (I was poised from midnight - IPAD and phone, excitement building with the thought of a big tornado outbreak with strong and long tracked tornadoes...stayed up until 5am for nothing!) Had to leave for work at 7:30am...now sitting at my desk feeling very tired/sleepy! What did I learn? Never assume a high risk possibility of a tornado outbreak will deliver the goods! Will I stay up late and do it all again next time? You bet I will! See you all for the next chase - until then it’s back to watching the old classics.🌪🌪🌪
  11. Nice Plume building in towards the end of the GFS run would be a scorcher if it came off .
  12. Today
  13. Clearly it depends on your location as to how you perceive the Spring so far. Personally I think it’s been fairly average, yet the continual potential in the far depths of the charts has promised much but delivered little. Very similar to the Winter charts. There always seems to be an Azores high ready to nudge in but by the time it should’ve nudged in its back to its 10 day hence position. With Summer just round the corner my feeling is it’s likely to be pretty traditional.... nothing too horrendous and better the further SE you travel. There does seem to have been a lot of Easterly winds through Spring so perhaps this could lead to some decent Continental weather visiting us from time to time?
  14. The problem I continue to see at the moment is the amount of high pressure up north until that shifts we're not going to get any lengthy lasting warm settled weather. Obviously on the brighter day's it feels pleasant enough given the strong sunshine now but temps are nothing special 00z ECM shows the northern blocking of course sod's law it appears at the wrong time of year. Thankfully it's still only May, and we've got a lot of time yet to get a more positive outlook
  15. The GEFS 6z mean markedly improves beyond day 10 with the azores high ridging in and a good chance of an anticyclonic spell evolving during early June!
  16. Looking at how things are going i won't be surprised to see May also end above average. Even with extensive high pressure over the Arctic and persistent low over central Europe we struggle to record a below average month.
  17. The Gem 0z actually ends on a positive note with the trough departing and the azores ridge building in.
  18. You can be sure that now we are closing in on Summer Solstice the models will always be struggling due to their poor performance. They all struggle unless we are under a prolonged period of settled weather. So take any model output, whether long term or short term, settled or unsettled with a pinch of salt unless its showing in the 72 hours range. The middle of July when models start to become more reliable.
  19. I think it's a wood pigeon, flaps a lot but doesn't fly very well. Only one of my three ever plays football, still worth having the garden ready though. That big shower to my north yesterday afternoon dumped a decent amount of rain. The rainfall gauge at Abbey St Bathans recorded 15mm in an hour, that's quite a high rainfall rate:
  20. At last, a level headed post! I mentioned this the other day about a return to more typical kind of conditions, meaning the best of the conditions towards the S/SE. with more unsettled conditions towards the North. You simply can't keep getting countrywide warm and settled spells all the time. And again judging by some of the posts in here this morning, yet again summer is over on the 21st May! All because things aren't has rosey has this time last year! The weather here is yet again warm and sunny, yet Reading some posts on here it's dire! Personally I think it's not been a half bad spring, but it seems others think it's been a write off. I think it's time for some to lower there expectations, or perhaps emigrate to the Costa del sol....
  21. Great pic. Sky is a wonderful colour today to be fair. Oxshott a lovely place. I used to go dirt biking near there about 10 years ago. Doubt if the track still there. Knowle Hill think it was.
  22. I wonder if this is suggesting that this year June will be accompanied by a return of the westerlies which is a common occurance .... and heralds the end of the good conditions in the west and an improvement often for eastern and southern areas ?
  23. If this pattern continues beyond June, and we go end up with an average summer or poor one, could this then lead to a cooler winter? i know that’s not always the case, but that was he trend in the 2008-12 period.
  24. Dan James is close to joining Man U according to the Daily Mail they're saying an agreement is in place for a £15million deal
  25. Close-up of the Magnum, OK tornado yesterday - some bad language though Unfortunately damaged some property Thankfully no fatalities or serious injuries on what was SPC High Risk Day. Over-hyped High Risk? Well, it could have been a lot worse given the unusual situation of extreme wind shear and extreme instability forecast - but it appears some short-range models like the HRRR didn't perform too well and were a little too keen to develop numerous tornadic supercells over central Oklahoma than actually occurred - when obviously the warm sector atmosphere was more stable, apparently maybe because of weaker lapse rates created by stubborn cloud cover from early storms clearing north, so wasn't really a tornado outbreak in the high risk area across Oklahoma in the end, though NW Texas did see a fair few tornadoes drop - where the airmass was a lot more unstable near the dryline - thanks to good cloud clearance early on to allow maximum heating.
  26. I agree about poor May in its entirety - I feel there is often an isolated spell of a couple of days of warm southerly weather as a taster - and so for that has been missing ...
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