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  2. Mean mid Atlantic ridge slightly better with slightly colder air further South than 0z.
  3. Day 6 mean pretty good, but the DET prob on the colder end - however look at day 10s mean, that is mighty impressive From next Thurs it’s looking to be pretty chilly again, below normal I imagine anyway with frost and wintry showers in places - according the the ECM anyway
  4. UK winters for the years '69-'70, '76-'77, '83-'84, based on the MetOffice CETs. Cool-cold months experienced in the UK during those winters. 1969 -110th coldest December - 3.3 1970 -105th coldest February - 2.9 1970 -56th coldest March - 3.7 1970 -60th coldest April - 6.7 1976 -47th coldest December - 2.0 1977 -133rd coldest January - 2.8 1977 -102nd coldest April - 7.2 1983 -289th coldest December - 5.2 1984 -128th coldest February - 3.3 1984 -125th coldest March - 4.7 1984 -44th coldest May - 9.9
  5. Yes that is generally true but it is not really possible to work out what 'may' happen based on one chart both in the sequence and just the 500-1000 surface. It is preferrable to have other charts also through the sequence, especially the 300 mb flow.
  6. It's not that unusual with a deepening wave tracking ENE. I suspect gales and heavy rain would be more of a worry if it ever came to fruition
  7. Sounds like what most of the GEFS ensembles showed, so a real possibility
  8. Generally though the more round shaped the trough is, the less likely it is to slide and when its negatively tilted and more disrupted, surely that is an indicator the jet is on a NW to SE axis?
  9. Its a better chart but its almost back to square one with that great big spoiler trough in the wrong place again.
  10. I just hope the DET has support from the EC ENS, who knows it may be a mild outlier with
  11. Bolton have been given a 5-point deduction for failing to fulfil fixtures against Brentford and Doncaster. The deduction is, however suspended for 18 months. Bolton have also been fined £70,000 with 50% suspended for 18-months
  12. tci=36.7 billion watts neutron count=9.8%=high kp index=3=quiet
  13. You need to see the jet stream for the same time to be able to make any real decision, even then of course things may well change. Fun to theorise though.
  14. Unusual we are colder than you up there.I have a mate in West Kingsdown and as a rule of thumb he is normally 0.5-1 degree colder owing to altitude.Really felt like mid January today!!
  15. It seems to me that GFS has a bias for introducing the Azores High, it being our seasonal norm in early/mid December, in recent years anyway . At some point there will be a tipping point when we will know either way, it may just be the case that we stay just on the right side of things for it to remain cold but not very cold, like what we are experiencing now. If ECM is on the money though it could be a very interesting time as we go into December and winter proper. Personally I have a feeling that the GFS will switch back to cold pretty soon, but can we get the Azores high to play ball and shove off the scene completely, thats the big question.
  16. Cold Decembers in the US? I wonder how Decembers in Europe compared! Interesting to see the Met Office UK CET ranking December 2010 as the second coldest in 334 years. The third coldest December occurred during the last Grand Solar Minimum. And the coldest December recorded (1890) occurred during a rapid decline in sunspot activity, before recovering in the early 1900s. Observations are now trending towards the next Grand Solar Minimum. Current sun spot activity alarmingly low. Notice the total lack of solar activity in the last 4 months. CM predictions expecting the sunspot cycle to steadily climb. However the recent trend of weakening solar cycles prevails, and the increase in activity stalls. For comparison, here is the sunspot activity for the last 400 years, since 1600. If increases in sunspot activity are not observed within the next year, there is chance for a series of considerably colder winters in the years to come. I'm all for a green, clean planet. But I struggle to accept humans directly control the climate. More inclined to agree that we are a contributing factor to the climate we experience. It seems more and more plausible to suggest the sun, a ball of fire 1,300,000 times larger than earth and relatively close on an astronomical scale, directly controls and dictates the climate on our planet.
  17. Million dollar question but what would happen next do we think? Is the low to our North West able I sink South East ? It’s not the sort of chart we see very often so hard to know
  18. A dry, chilly and cloudy day with a moderate-fresh E wind. At 1800 Temp; 2.9c Max today; 3.3c Min last night; 0.9c Grass min; -1.6c Rainfall from 0900-1800; 0.0 mm Sunshine today; 0.0 hrs Mean wind speed; 18 mph E/SE Highest gust today; 28 mph E at 1359 8 oktas St Vis; 20 km.
  19. But isn't the thing that this is GFSv2 (FV3 last year) , so is yet to prove it's mettle? We'll see I guess.
  20. Yes a huge contrast to the GFS which at 240 hours it starts to show the Azores High picking up steam again and brewing in over the country - ECM a big contrast to this at a similar timeframe.
  21. Met office 10 day trend Next 5 days Gradually turning milder Slowly turning wetter Wettest in west and south Next week Low pressure Wet and breezy Uncertainty - mild or cold
  22. Right, yes - I saw '% of 1981-2010 average' but didn't read the small print below!
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