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Culford, Suffolk Jan max, min (°F) 1. 52, 35 2. 40, 37 3. 49, 46 4. 50, 41 5. 48, 38 6. 49, 40 7. 52, 42 May 1. 50, 35 2. 53, 28 3. 50, 23 4. 50, 22 5. 52, 24 6. 54, 28

Quite fascinating setup, we've got an extremely slow moving streamer esque band across Fife Screen_Recording_20240505_020736_Netweather Radar.mp4 During Sunday further fascinating evolutions occuring with a convergence zone which potentially grows into a small cyclonic system, the suite of models are having a tricky time getting the intensity of the associated rainfall with this though this interacts with an area of increasing instability (could be thundery in nature) by Sunday Afternoon across Northern and Northeast areas, I suspect this will undergo topographical enhancing via the mountains a second intensification may occur as this convergence zone extends through the Tay Estuary and crosses Fife. I would be surprised if a rainfall warning isn't required from the North Northeast extending across all of Fife. This event is easy to spot when checking where the highest significant PWAT [Precipitable Water] values exist. GEM takes the highest totals through Fife GFS much further west toward Perthshire. NMM 0.05

Scuba steve I think it will reach 44 degrees on the 4 of July because of the sun's flares

Reeds vid from inside that powerful rain wrapped wedge yesterday, was watching the livestream when it happened, probably the most nervous ive ever been watching a reed stream, especially when he started to say we're in a bad spot here, glad he made it out ok i know he knows what hes doing but way too close for comfort for me Especially with how deviant the tor was. Almost directly under the velocity couplet!

WYorksWeather okay , will bookmark my thoughts against yours and see later the results! Goodnight.

Separately but related to my comment above, worth also noting that the ECM weather regime charts also look relatively good for the longer range. Very low probability of negative NAO and Atlantic ridging, both of which are poor patterns for May and June if you want warm and dry weather, increased probabilities of Scandi highs and positive NAO. Of course these charts can and probably will end up being wrong at times, but these actually look quite good for the rest of May.

Bit of a shot in the dark at this range, but for those already interested in developments after next week, the ECM clusters are quite instructive for days 11, 13 and 15. Model consensus is that all clusters turn unsettled around day 11. The key divergence is where we go after that. Cluster 1 says we stay unsettled for a few days and by day 15 no real signal. Clusters 3 and 5 are more consistently unsettled right out to day 15. Cluster 4 has more high than low pressure influence for the most part but generally west of the UK, so possibly cool and somewhat showery the bet with that. Cluster 2 is the best of the lot for warm and dry, with the unsettled period followed by a very warm to hot area of high pressure building over and to the east by day 15. The safer option for making any prediction is probably to focus on days 11 to 13 just outside the reliable, which does look like an unsettled period. But whether it is a brief interlude of unsettled weather or a return to more prolonged and persistent unsettled weather is impossible to know at this stage, and it could still get delayed or pushed back. I think predicting at this stage that the upcoming high is just an anomaly about to be replaced with another prolonged unsettled period is borne more of cynicism about the recent pattern than a fair-minded analysis of the models.

Metwatch I'd be interested to know why you'd go that low - not saying you're wrong necessarily! Is it that you think the Coningsby event was very exceptional, on the order of a 1 in 200 chance at the moment in any given year, or do you think it's higher than that in any random year, but that circumstances this year don't favour it? Totally not a criticism, but always interested to hear alternative views. I do agree with the broader point of course that you certainly wouldn't bet on it happening in any given year, though.

ANYWEATHER I'd be willing to go with the following for this year with very high confidence: This year will be the warmest or second warmest on record globally, and minimum of top 5 for Europe. Less than 1% of the Earth's total land area will record a coldest on record year (so allowing maybe one or two countries only). Closer to home it will be at minimum a top 10 CET year, and top 5 in the shorter UK record. The UK's annual maximum will be at least 32C. Looking slightly further ahead, and also with very high confidence: The overall global temperature for 2021-2030 will make it the warmest decade on record. The 5 year period 2026-2030 will be warmer than 2021-2025, despite the transition to La Nina and unwinding of any Hunga Tonga effect. Before the end of the decade, there will be at least one more temperature recording of 38C or higher in the UK. With more moderate confidence, closer to 50-50, I would also add the following by 2030: Somewhere in Europe will officially record 50C for the first time. The UK record of 40.3C from 2022 will be beaten again. Theoretically if you're right all of those would be highly unlikely. I'm more than willing to be quoted on any of these - feel free to bookmark my post. I will also try to bookmark it and revisit at minimum the predictions for this year (of course no one knows what they'll be doing at the end of the decade!).

SunnyG I wonder who lolol!

Wade Well that's another one on the ignore list. What a be lll end LetItSnow! LOLOL!!

markyo I think we all know he means about in his area you donut! SunSean Shows a temp drop here only 15 so yes it'll be rubbish. Sorry!

June 2005, a month of great contrast. The C.E.T. up to the 14th was only 13.1C. There were some pretty cool charts. Spectacular flip in the second half. The 15th to 30th averaged 18.2C with a remarkable daily C.E.T. of 23.2C on the 19th. There was an unofficial high of 34.4C this day but the accepted high was only 32.8C. I think June 2005 is one of the months that got the largest increase to the overall C.E.T. when the dataseries was updated in 2022.

Summertime Sadness I'm dreading mine getting that old and leaving home It's gonna be soooo sad!! Summertime Sadness Well that's it your part of the furniture now ha! Hope you brought cake too ...

Looks like the divergence between the ECM and the GFS 12z starts on the Saturday the 11th. The GFS has a more robust area of high pressure up into the Norwegian Sea and also a more defined trough to our east. By Monday the 13th the GFS 12z is exploring the idea of a rather flabby Scandinavian high with winds turning to the east, a common pattern at this time of year but one that makes eastern coastal residens shudder! Meanwheile the ECM is sticking with the idea of a general breakdown from the west . Dare I say both look like they lead to potentially not the best conditions. Of course they're very different options so it's not worth worrying about whether they verify but the trend for a shake up of the high around the 13th still looks to be there, but how it comes off is uncertain. Expect many different outcomes to be toyed with. The ECM ensemble does show that the idea of the Atlantic coming in isn't without some support. Because it is a mean though, I could see how any one of the potential outcomes comes off. Perhaps high pressure to our north-east will nose in and turn the winds to the east, perhaps low pressure will come in off the Atlantic or berhaps it could stall and lead to some potentiall warmer conditions. Either way, nothing exceptional on the horizon and some lovely days to come shortly after some less bad than expected ones already. Enjoy the Bank Holiday everyone.

damianslaw A very typical set-up for the 21st century. Not the topic for it here but you have to wonder if the extra moisture in the warmer air is disproportionately affecting the nights more than the days during the warmer half of the year.

August 1927 somewhat reminds me of August 2004 for some reason. The latter had more of a influence of high pressure in the first half but the overall pattern wasn't too dissimilar with high pressure over Scandinavia and a slack southerly flow. Both then transitioned into a spell of frequent low pressure domination with northern blocking. Both were exceptionally thundery. August 1927 was a lot cooler but actually the Met Office reports of the time report it as a slightly warmer than average month for the time. I did a crude estimate of what the same synoptics would produce nowadays almost 100 years later and it would probably be in the low 17s.

Reeds you gotta be kidding me . If you know you know . A lot of tornado's even on the lower risk days, just shows how active this season has been so far. Next week looks quite concerning.

*Stormforce~beka* Ah how lovely, so nice at that age! Mine are 21 and 15

damianslaw Could it be a similar story for the coming summer i.e. wet and dull but also very warm and humid?! If so it most certainly won't be fondly remembered by me! That said, it could also be a hot and dry summer with relatively low humidity but the concern is the warm SST's to our south west will work against us for that?

damianslaw it’s been pretty miserable all day here too

Don Same. Clear as a bell now ...

*Stormforce~beka* Yes, after a brief sunny interval this afternoon, cloud soon returned. However, tonight you've guessed it, the skies are starry!

stainesbloke Lucky you. Here we got a sort of early spring morning then a chilly afternoon followed by the usual clear and sunny evening. Obviously it was great compared to the grot we are used to. Tomorrow we should be back to normal (aka rain).

LetItSnow!How very British of us. Having said that, some people end up in the ignore bin