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  2. A dry night with a good deal of high cloud. The cloud has thinned slowly since sunrise and it's now warm and sunny. At 0800 g.m.t Temp; 11.2c 24 hr max; 17.7c 24 hr min; 7.0c Grass min; 3.9c Rainfall in 24 hrs ending 0800 g.m.t; 0.0 mm Mean wind speed; 9 mph NE 4 oktas Ci Vis; 12 km.
  3. Good luck to everyone who entered Sorry @seaside 60 the cut-off was last night, so you won't be able to win the prize. Thanks @Roger J Smith for collating the entries, saved me a job! I'll update tomorrow morning with today's max, and so on through the weekend. The winner will be announced Tuesday.
  4. An example at 216 hours, but both the 00Z GFS and 00Z GEM show High Pressure building back over the U.K towards next weekend. Both clearly not liking the ECMWF this morning and are joining forces against it. (ECMWF at 216 hours) The trough conquers the UK! Something the warm and High Pressure enthusiasts won’t be pleased about! But could provide a lot of convective, showery, weather. The build of Pressure, though, could be a bit stronger on the GEM, but still pretty much shaking hands with the GFS. Expect more changes towards the end of next week. And even, in some ways, the earlier part of that week. How ever much the trough goes on a rampage over the U.K (doesn’t look like the models remembered their Westward adjustment of the pattern this morning ), could resultantly affect what happens after. Can the Low Pressure lift away quickly enough (with some of it getting cut of to our South) and allow High Pressure to come back to the rescue? Or will the sneaky thing get stuck over us like glue? Personally hope for the former. While as I said, things will keep changing, it’s tempting to gather up some bomb-ombs from Mario Kart 8 Deluxe’s item boxes and toss them that Low on the ECMWF towards the end of it’s run! It’s quite likely Low Pressure from the West in the Atlantic will pay some kind of visit over the U.K next week. This especially so over Western areas with some rain and thundery showers about. Plus, there is some warm, bright and generally dry weather to look forward to over this Easter weekend, where models show High Pressure being mostly in control (albeit with the threat of soggy weather towards Western areas later on into this weekend). 🌤🌦
  5. Looks like another cracking day is on the cards! I wish everyone a great day, and I'm going to our caravan this afternoon for the miniature holiday-thing in Rye. I may see you again later, it depends on whether or not the Caravan has Wifi (I have no Mobile data at the moment).
  6. Hottest day of the year so far coming up! Hoping for a hot and sunny May/June like last year. Glorious sunsets here the last couple of nights! Hope everyone has a fantastic Easter and enjoys some warm and sunny weather!
  7. It’s a constant issue at the balloon fiesta every year. I was supposed to go up in 2016, on the Saturday which was s lovely day, but just a bit too much breeze. Anyway, first 20C of the year yesterday. Nice day ahead, hopefully less hazy.
  8. Looking at 00z UKMO it might not be until mid next week that we see some fairly widespread rain. It's looking like a warm and dry Easter weekend away from Scotland and parts of NI/ROI
  9. Mild, sunny and calm start to the Easter weekend Temp 8.5c
  10. Today
  11. Morning, a low of 9.1°C at 6am and now it is blue skies all the way this morning as the haze is gone. Currently 12.9°C
  12. The model output over the last few days certainly brings to mind the dictum of my old friend Sammy Rochevsky "The reliability of the models is inversely proportional to the length of time from day zero. Ergo it is logical, when analyzing the outputs, to start at day zero and work out, rather than day ten and work in" Another cracking morning so off to see Sidney
  13. Listed below, are the Results and Correct Score (In Sets) of all 4 matches, on Night 12 of the Tournament, with any "virtual" winnings, shown: M.1) RESULT: M.SULJOVIC(bt.Gurney) 6/4 C/SCORE (In Sets):8-5 6/1 There were NO correct Results/C/Scores predicted in the above Match. M.2) RESULT: M.VAN GERWEN(bt.Cross) 8/15 C/SCORE (In Sets):8-2 8/1 £10 VAN GERWEN @ 8/15 - V/W = £15.33. ANTONYBR7 and TOMSE12, an extra £5.33 for only 1 Winner (Special Concession). There were NO correct, C/Scores predicted in the above Match. M.3) RESULT: G.PRICE(bt.Smith) 6/4 C/SCORE (In Sets):8-5 10/1 £10 PRICE @ 6/4 - V/W = £25.00. MARK WHEELER, an extra £15.00 for only 1 Winner (Special Concession). There were NO correct, C/Scores predicted in the above Match. M.4) RESULT: J.WADE(bt.Wright) 11/8 C/SCORE (In Sets):8-2 20/1 £10 WADE @ 11/8 - V/W = £23.75. KIRKCALDY WEATHER, an extra £23.75 for "NAP". There were NO correct, C/Scores predicted in the above Match. In a short while, I will post up the "virtual" winnings, for each entrant on Night 12. Plus the Current Standings, after Night 12. Regards, Tom.
  14. Well the balloon flight got cancelled due to the wind! You never can win with British weather, sunny and 21c but too windy!! Expect we’ll rebook and it will be calm but wet! Anyway, lots of outdoor jobs to do in the sunshine today.
  15. Dry and bright with hazy sunshine through hipper cloud, mostly Ci, a low of 5.7 C
  16. A very warm weekend ahead for some of us, not as good further north and west though especially tomorrow: Chilly but gorgeous this morning here:
  17. The ecm differs in detail but it too is moving into a more mobile westerly pattern next week
  18. I agree that taking the research findings on face value your concerns would seem a real possibility. But I wonder if taking one consequence of Arctic Warming (i.e. melting sea ice and warm hole) in isolation will give a reliable indicator about the future behaviour of the Jet Stream? What about another impact of Arctic warming - a reduced temperature gradient between Arctic region and mid latitudes which is thought will reduce the 'fuel' that drives the Jet Stream, causing it to be more prone to meandering with more frequently blocked patterns? And then we have the dramatic change in sea ice in the Barents Sea causing changes to the regional climate in that area, linked with wintertime cyclones moving south into western Europe instead of east into Siberia. This concluding remark from the 2018 article Extreme weather in Europe linked to less sea ice and warming in the Barents Sea: ".....we believe that the 2005 regime shift we observed over the Barents Sea may have contributed to the increasingly frequent extreme weather events experienced over Europe in the past decade or so." So lots going on thanks to Climate Change and the interactions and consequences are far from nailed IMHO.
  19. As can be seen on the last voracity chart above there is now a conduit to the north west and by midday Wednesday there is a complex trough west of Ireland running south, with surface fronts aligned down Ireland, and more general convective activity over England and Wales. Thursday and Friday becoming more unsettled as the aforementioned front(s) traverse the country and temps return to around normal. There is still much uncertainty about next week so caution strongly advised The NH 500mb profile for midnight Thursday gives an overview of all of this
  20. You can't knock this weather specially after what went before. A lovely couple of days of warm Spring sunshine, light winds and no rain. With the weekend set in the same mould we can hope for a continuation into May..... Not sure we'll get it, though.
  21. Misty mild with some high level cloud so no low level clag from the sea Temp 6.1C, low 5.9C, Barometer 1029mb rising, Wind F2 ENE, Rainfall Nil
  22. The 500mb NH profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UTC chart Once the early morning mist/haze has cleared a warm sunny day for virtually all areas. Perhaps the sun filtered a tad through Cirrus in some and again cooler along the NE and eastern coastal regions. By late afternoon some thicker cloud encroaching the far north west as fronts associated with the low east of Greenland approach Tonight will be clear in most areas with a nip in the air in eastern regions with the odd fog patch forming. The cloud continuing to thicken and spread in the north west Once any fog clears a dry and very warm day for most areas on Saturday (including now the east coast) but the cloud continues to thicken and push south east in the north west and there may well be some patchy rain/drizzle. And consequently temps down in this area. And perhaps the sunshine filtered a tad south of this courtesy of Cirrus associated with the frontal system now weakening against the block Another very warm day on Sunday but cloudier and becoming quite windy over Scotland as the upper trough to the north west becomes more organized which, along with the low over Iberia, starts taking on some significance By Monday the upper trough to the north west has started to deconstruct and phase with the trough to the south as the Atlantic subtropical high amplifies in the west. The waving surface fronts associated with this trail south just to the west of N. Ireland and western Scotland thus still cloudy here with patchy rain but elsewhere another warm day, albeit cooler once again along eastern coastal regions And by Tuesday there is a new low close to Coruna and convective activity is starting to move north into the south west on what is generally a day when the temps will be down a bit from the weekend. This especially applies once again to eastern coastal regions.
  23. (a) CET May averages and other statistics ___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2018 ___ 21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780) 20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day. Warmest months and warmest third of recent May CET (13/38) 15.1 ... (1833) 13.9 ... (1848) 13.8 ... (1758, 1788) 13.7 ... (1808) 13.6 ... (1727, 1992) 13.5 ... (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947) 13.4 ... 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952) 13.2 ... 2017, 2018 13.1 ... 1998 13.0 ... 1989 12.9 ... 1999 12.6 ... 1990, 2001 12.5 ... 2016 12.3 ... 2006 12.2 ... 2011, 2014 Averages and middle third of recent May CET (13/38) 12.1 ... 2000, 2003, 2004, 2009 12.0 ... ... ... 2001-2017 average _ _ and _ _ 1989-2018 average 11.9 ... 1988, 2007 _ _ and 1991-2018 average (converging on future 1991-2020 average) 11.8 ... 2002 11.7 ... 1981-2010 average and 1986-2015 average, 2012 CET 11.6 ... 1982, 1995 11.5 ... 1997 11.4 ... 1993, 2005 .. 1901-2000 average 11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average 11.2 ... 1981 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2018 average of all data (11.23) 11.1 ... 1986 ... 1801-1900 average 10.9 ... 1985 10.8 ... 1991, 2015 10.7 ... 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average Coldest Months and coldest third of recent May CET (12/38 starting at 11.2^^) 10.4 ... 2013 10.3 ... 1983 10.1 ... 1987 9.9 ... 1984 9.1 ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years) 8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest 8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest 8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest 8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest 8.5 ... 1698 was coldest Extreme cold 3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877 2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861) ___________________________________ Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Tuesday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties. ______________________________________ (b) England and Wales precip (EWP) contest Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present), The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. 151.8 ___ max 1766-2018 in 1773) 142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782 140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967 118.4 ___ maximum 1981-2018 (2007) __ (115.2 in 1983) 63.6 ___ average 1981-2010 62.2 ___ average 1989-2018 13.7 ___ minimum 1981-2018 (1991) 07.9 ___ (min 1766-2018) in 1844 _ 12.0 in 1896 the only May drier than 1991. ________________________________________________________________ Recent ... 2018 _ 51.9 mm ... ... 2017 _ 65.0 mm ... ... 2016 _ 61.7 mm ... ... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ... ... 2014 _ 102.8 mm. Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.2 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest. ... Good luck in both contests ...
  24. Easter Sunday is held the first Sunday after the first full moon following the spring equinox.

    © Kevin Bradshaw

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