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  2. Well something has clearly changed in favour of cold this evening cos ecm at 120 hours has now joined the gfs and brings the cold air in!!all of a sudden that mild south west wind that was forecasted has all but vanished for the weekend!!!bring on the frost i say!!
  3. For months of any name, the last one was Jan 2014 (184.6), although Dec 2015 and Jan 2016 were both just under 150. If we beat that, then the next high going back in time is Nov 2009 at 192.1 mm. Beating that we would have to go back to Nov 1940 (196.5 mm). At that point there would be three wetter months back in the more distant past, one October (1903) and the other two Novembers (1770, 1852). The wettest of them, 1903, produced 218.3 mm. The most recent October to surpass 150 mm was 2013 with 157.6 mm. Today's GFS ten-day drops down a bit to 30 mm (we are at 100 now) although it still brings two rain events through on Friday and Monday. I think the CET will finish around 10.7 given the current charts and an adjustment factor of 0.2.
  4. Just wanted to Post up the Series of 9 Races I've chosen for the Final Weekend of the Competition. The "Feature" Race, will be the Group 1, Futurity Trophy at Doncaster, for 2 Year Olds and run over a Mile. I've decided to include to 2 additional Categories . Category 8, which I shall call the MID AUTUMN 2 YEAR OLD DOUBLE. This will comprise of the Futurity Trophy and the Cancom Stakes, a Group 3 Race for 2 Year Olds, run over 7 Furlongs at Newbury. You will be allocated 2 Selections in each Race. You will have the choice of Stake Option 1 - 4 x 50p WIN Doubles (2x2), or Stake Option 2 - 4 x 25p EACH WAY Doubles (2x2). You decide. The Final additional Category of the Competition will be Category 9. To mark the first appearance of my all time favourite "Jump" Jockey Ruby Walsh, as a pundit on the ITV Racing Team, I shall call this Category, the RUBY WALSH TRIXIE. This will comprise of the 2.00 (Leg 1), 3.10 (Leg 2) and 3.45 (Leg 3) at Cheltenham, on Saturday. You will be allocated 1 Selection, in each of the 3 Legs. Your allocated "Virtual" Stakes for Category 9, will be 3 x 25p EACH WAY Doubles and a 25p EACH WAY Treble. NO Win Stakes in Category 9. I will post up the Current Declarations and a Betting Guide for the Races in Categories 8 and 9, tomorrow. EARLY-MID AUTUMN RACING COMPETITION SAT.26th Oct. DONCASTER 1.45: - 3.25: - Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group 1, 2 Year Olds). LEG 2 - MID AUTUMN 2 YEAR OLD DOUBLE. 2.45: - CHELTENHAM 2.00: - LEG 1, RUBY WALSH TRIXIE. 2.35: - 3.10: - LEG 2, RUBY WALSH TRIXIE. 3.45: - LEG 3, RUBY WALSH TRIXIE. NEWBURY 2.20: - 2.50: - Cancom Stakes (Group 3, 2 Year Olds). LEG 1 - MID AUTUMN 2 YEAR OLD DOUBLE. The Competition will end, with a few Races from Meetings on, Sunday 27th October. More on that in a few Days time. Regards, Tom.
  5. Looks like the storms in the SW are just slightly going to miss me. Just hoping that another one develops near me.
  6. It is been nippy as of late. Glad I had my bed back to thicker quilt ready for Winter. Models suggests theres snow on the way for Friday evening? If this stays on by Thursday evening/night I'd be happy to see some early season surprise!
  7. Someone's turned the blowtorch on here. 24C yesterday, 23C today. Hurbanovo (holder of Slovakia's all-time highest temperature) got up to 26C. 28C in Serbia and Romania.
  8. Yet again some spicy 12z ensembles coming out.... Now is it finally onto something, or does it still show tenancies for cold bias! I'm hoping there has been some improvement since last winter. Personally I think it's latching onto something, if I recall, it was the GFS that was pointing out one of our hot plumes during the summer by flagging up very warm ensembles a couple of weeks out! A quick glance at the ens show the control was yet again a beauty, and even the mean is beginning to trend down... All in all, me love it long time.
  9. I agree re: gfs is "always", at this stage that's the only thing we know to be true when it comes to these global models in which we frequent.. As per your comment, always a fascinating time to see models in the ring against one another
  10. The gfs "is always" .. Of issue at this point!!!.. With the new data impossed...let's see how it performs...on this very occasion.. And as per... Of course.. the battle between ec/gfs. .always a fascinating one....
  11. Quite a wet Wednesday night Thursday period for central southern parts of England as a weather front pushes up from France perhaps more persistent rain for Western Scotland but elsewhere showers.. Gfs like others have pointed out has trended the deep low on Friday further south resulting in southern England receiving gales, very heavy rainfall for the Midlands and Wales with *mainly* but not exclusively hill snow for parts of North Wales and northern England.. GFS. but very mild for the south much colder further north if this comes off will not be suprised to see the winds with this system perhaps being an even bigger problem with such a stark temperature contrast fueling it.. Zoomed out view.. But the earlier ECM and GEM are agreeing on a more northerly track for the frontal system developing it to the north of Scotland keeping hill snow rain and very strong winds mostly at bay and much milder too.. Gem.. with much milder conditions although with such a big split it's difficult to say which scenario will happen but a blend of the two scenarios is most likely I think.. gfs also showing wintry showers for the north and West of Scotland during Friday More changes are likely in the coming days given the wide spread of outcomes. Really is making for interesting model watching that's for sure.
  12. They should hire you for Brexit negotiations! It'll be interesting to see where the ECM sits this evening, despite the GFS + ensembles trending more towards the colder solutions we have to remember that the newly updated GFS has a fairly significant cold bias problem that still hasn't been fixed.
  13. I stayed in Alcudia many moons ago. Was treated to a number of different displays, from overhead storms with close lightning strikes to distant, silent light shows over the sea. This was in August mind.
  14. Yes.. The ens belly dropping.. As they not the pressure rises... And all in the right places.. And the mean looking to take more and more members as we evolve.. As supports get further to grips....with the very likely pattern changes!!!!.. Fun n' games season..."OPEN"!!!!!
  15. Sunny Sheffield at 10.1C -1.5C below normal. Rainfall 88.2mm 106.5% of the monthly average. Latest GFS now brings in winter rather than summer I guess it's a game of wait and see if it changes it mind rapidly again. ECM not out yet so although it was showing a cold outlook this morning. However if they are right a well below month is suddenly on the cards.
  16. And all of a sudden that batch of +5s and +10s are gettin smaller and smaller by the run!!!yesterday there was massive agreement on milder 850s but today all has changed at just 4 or 5 days out!!!
  17. There has just been a flash of lightning here. Didn’t hear any thunder.
  18. Gales for some coastal areas and possibly inland on Friday...
  19. A significant drop off expected in the GFS ENS mean for around 29th OCT as they begin to project the high lattitude block- What you will see happen ( assuming all goes to plan ) over the next 48-72 hours the 192 Mean as it traverses towards T120 will develop a more defined high pressure to the North west of the UK introducing those cold / very cold uppers. This process has started today with more CAA heading into Europe & better WAA towards Greenland. - We compare the 192 MEAN 12z ( first ) with the 06z Now await the mean drop for london on 29th...
  20. A few sunny intervals during mid to late morning but most of the day was cloudy with showers of light-moderate drizzle. At 1700 g.m.t Temp; 7.8c Max today; 10.4c Min last night; 7.5c Grass min; 7.2c Rainfall from 0800-1700 g.m.t; 0.1 mm Sunshine today; 1.0 hrs Mean wind speed; 9 mph N/NE Highest gust today; 26 mph N at 0903 g.m.t 8 oktas Sc and St Vis; 65 km.
  21. Today
  22. Now all of a sudden, there is a distinct split in the GEFS as early as a few days away.
  23. It can easily snow in the Pennines in October given the right uppers. I remember seeing a white Diwali one year in the 90s at just 175m asl. On Friday there’s a great chance of snowfall in the Pennines and hope it comes off!
  24. I'm not entirely clear on what the point of these are, is he using a model to predict what tonights update of the ECM will show? I don't see the point..
  25. @offerman Everything got reorganised the other week and it's under the seasonal wx discussion section.. https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/1-weather-discussion-autumn/
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