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  2. In my slim experience, the GFS has always had a tendency to throw up those scenarios at the back-end of a run when the polar vortex is forecast to strengthen and trop/strat coupling begins to take place.
  3. Give it time feb,it's still around day ten> like i said earlier,the op and control have been screaming these charts out for days,2010 was a good signal that the gfs picked up,will this one be the same?
  4. Dry and chilly with variable cloud Temp 9.7c
  5. Nearly again - just can't get those -6 and -8 lines down.
  6. A bizarre but very interesting evolution at day ten haven't seen outputs like this in a while.. Colder and also rain seemingly coming from all sorts of directions well I say rain but mabye the magic S word would be used in this such scenario for some areas.
  7. .Another surge of colder air coming down from this trough circled red. this could be a stonker of a run.
  8. So to the pub run, first at T156, ridge of high pressure will be a relief to those who have had incessant rain recently. From then on, well this looks like a flying pig: Well it does to me anyway, coming at you view... you can clearly see its snout, that colder rush becoming more likely?
  9. Still early in the run yet but if we can get some frigid air pulled down the line of that wave then wont it be all GFS's today that have been cold? something afoot, BBC were still going with ECM op.
  10. The 18z a little slower on the evolution than the 12z,so finer days for longer,i would take that at 192. we still have the Atlantic ridge so variations of the theme around that time frame.
  11. Today
  12. Evening everyone,i see the gfs is still at it with forecasting a northerly outbreak later next week so it is consistent,just need the ecm to come on board,if you look at the mean at day ten from both the gfs and ecm they both look broadly similar with the height's pushing up into Greenland so i think the ecm op may come on board tomorrow the latest from cpc days 8-14 show this with height's pushing up into Greenland with trough down into Scandinavia now for the flip of the coin,the NAO/AO was forecast to go +ve positive yesterday,now look at them,if this continues then the Atlantic door may be come ad-jarred or even shut i know i am ramping a little bit but who wouldn't now for the 18z,buckle up.
  13. I`ve seen some classics,I havn`t seen this for such a long time,and I was very impressed,and a few other cult classics.
  14. Temperature got down to 9.9°C around an hour ago but has been climbing ever since... up to 10.6°C now
  15. David de Gea: Injured keeper a doubt for Man Utd v Liverpool - BBC Sport WWW.BBC.CO.UK Goalkeeper David de Gea is a doubt for Manchester United's Premier League game against Liverpool on Sunday after coming off injured on Spain duty.
  16. Yes I managed a rough cut of grass the other week as it was so long but doing any gardening is out of the question. Dog walks in the fields is just a quagmire of mud and drowned grass.
  17. 9.4°C here now, can't see this downtrend continuing much longer with the weather front moving ever closer.
  18. Next week Early frost and fog Wet and windy in the north Drier in the south https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/50061749
  19. Foggy start this morning, made the commute over the downs a little difficult today! But soon brightened up but had a few hours of showery rain, before the sun returned. Reached 15.6°C in the sunshine during the early afternoon, but can really feel the evenings rapidly drawing in now. Currently 9.7°C and clear.
  20. Looking a bit further ahead, here's the last 5 NH Z500 anomalies for December from the CFS (averaged over the month): Setting aside UK potential, how many scream a raging +AO? None. Hmmm...
  21. Wednesday morning looks like a wet start for many eastern and central areas of England, with a band of rain, perhaps heavy, will move NE across the British Isles. Places like northern England and Scotland should also be under this heavy rain too. SW England, Wales and Northern Ireland will wake up with a dry start, but not TOO dry, as the band of heavy rain should of progressed over these places in the early hours of Wednesday. Northern Ireland has the best chance of waking up to some glorious sunshine, which a small chance of catching the odd shower or two. As the day progresses, and we head into the afternoon, it should start to brighten up across the majority of England and Wales as the band of rain spreads NE, except Norfolk, where they might catch some drizzle. Where places across England get sunshine, it won't be crystal clear, there might just be some fair weather clouds lurking in the sky. Wales should remain dry for the rest of the afternoon, with the small chance of catching an isolated shower. The band of rain also clears NE across northern England and Scotland, and into the afternoon the majority of those areas should also remain dry for the rest of the afternoon, except NE Scotland, where they could catch some drizzle. Northern Ireland could remain dry for the whole day, with, once again, the exception of the small shower. If you do catch a shower, it shouldn't be too heavy. Into the evening, most places of the United Kingdom should remain dry, with the chance of catching the odd shower across SW England, Wales, northern England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. To the far SE of England, there is a small chance that they could catch some rain into the evening. Other than that, some places have the chance of catching some sunshine to end the day. The peak temperatures in the afternoon in the south should range from 10-16c, and in the north should range from 7-15c.
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