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  2. Yes it's ironic in a way. Cold lovers look for charts that slow the Atlantic down along with a southerly tracking jet but the picture is not complete in this case. There is so much blocking on our side of the globe being modeled but currently the way it has developed it keeps any deep cold away from the UK. Ok it's been on the cold side with some places seeing snow this from a polar maritime type flow from the north west.We have seen weather systems slide se as they come up the eastern blocking but this pattern is set to be modified somewhat. If we look at the day 10 ecm ens charts we can see that the Atlantic is relatively quiet but because the Canadian vortex get's weaker the cold north westerly feed gets cut and temperatures return towards average later. The trend to move a chunk of the vortex towards Siberia continues but is only one part of the pattern needed to get cold here.This setup sends the Russian cold south not west because of the Euro high. Those ht. anomalies stretching north west from se.europe are locking us into this persistent pattern with only minor changes at the surface,maybe less rain and those slightly higher temperatures.
  3. Some early showers but dry from ten and a few sunny spells cold again Temp 6.8C, Barometer 1009mb steady, Wind NE, Rainfall 2.6mm
  4. Jean Fergusson, who played Marina in Last of the Summer Wine for 25 years, has died at the age of 74. Jean appeared in 216 episodes on the show from 1985
  5. Looking at the coming 2m temperatures it will be getting very cold above that big gap in the Chucksi region too, so much more gains to be expected from Monday on in that area @Midlands Ice Age
  6. 6.7c to the 14th 0.9c below the 61 to 90 average 1.6c below the 81 to 10 average __________________________________ Current high this month 10.6c to the 1st Current low this month 6.7c to the 14th
  7. Today
  8. Well even the cold plunge in to Eastern Europe is unlikely, more like to north western Russia or even further back to central Asia. Eastern Europe is firmly locked in mild temperatures apart from few rare ENS members, overall all GEFS,EPS and EC weeklies have us under very warm anomalies throughout.
  9. there is however a chance, that even though the deep cold plunges into scandi and into eastern europe it wouldn't take much for cold to enter from the back door from the east . . wouldn't mind seeing a continued southerly tracking jet and lows diving nw to southeast and for continued unsettled in the med. far from done deal but then im not keen on the erratic nature of the gfs. although i hold higher confidence in the ecm and the gefs. and sometimes the gem especially for height patterns. but then all models do struggle with uncommon patterns.
  10. A lot of lifestyle advantages of living in Australia but that photo is a sore reminder of what we miss out on at this time of year!
  11. Slightly worried though that the strat-trop coupling will just be delayed rather than cancelled and then a strong zonal flow will ensue meaning all we do is give ourselves less time to break it down with an SSW - that isn't a prediction, just a concern / observation, we have had many times lately when things look promising in November and then failed to deliver, i think we will be OK and get some chances though but further on into winter.
  12. indeed very very close though. plenty of wave breaking though so maybe something will flip towards a more favourable outcome. been an extremely interesting start with blocking a little more robust than recent years. a 1050 or 1060 mb greeny high would be a cracking start to winter proper.
  13. Wouldn't worry about individual runs....wildly different as usual. Some warming showing again at the back of the run, but hard to tell accuracy at this range.
  14. The problem is that we have seen many runs with this entrenched pattern and at no time has the UK been subject to a cold upper flow, the contrary mostly. We know FI GFS loves giving us these great cold charts, so I suspect this pattern just is not conducive to UK cold even with the "cold bias of FI" Again, even on the 06z, with cold being directed from the Arctic we have the spoiler omnipresent Azores High forcing the pattern to push east. We need any GH to sustain in that region, not be conjoined by the two waves currently holding the UK in no mans land, the Euro and Azores ridges. Even at T324 we are in that locked synoptic: This November, from start to finish may be summed up in the above chart and what that cyclic pattern entails. Maybe December will bring a reboot to the NH drivers?
  15. They will record them almost certainly. For example see the "Workshop on Predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles" from April 2019 - https://www.ecmwf.int/en/learning/workshops/workshop-predictability-dynamics-and-applications-research-using-tigge-and-s2s-ensembles Scroll down to 'Presentations and recordings'. Lots of interesting presentations on subseasonal to seasonal forecasting (MJO, QBO, sea ice etc) including one on forecasting the 2018 SSW from Alexey Karpechko. Some of the previous events have simple videos and PDF files of the presentations but this TIGGE/S2S one uses Adobe Connect which neatly combines the video of the speaker with the slides they're presenting (as well as having separate PDFs).
  16. Going to end up not great this run - too much energy around Greenland - starting to flatten out.
  17. Styx


    I lived in Swansea 15 years ago. By the looks of things, a lot of changes!
  18. Styx


    Awesome photo! Where is this?
  19. Morning all, Thankfully conditions are improving at Cheltenham but some "false" ground, is still a concern. See report below: Cheltenham improving but false ground a concern ahead of crunch 3pm inspection | Horse Racing News | Racing Post WWW.RACINGPOST.COM Cheltenham is slowly recovering from the deluge of rain that forced the cancellation of Friday’s fixture with one area pinpointed as the main area of concern ah If tomorrow's and Sunday's Meetings go ahead, the CHELTENHAM NOVEMBER TRIXIE, will survive too. The Cheltenham Executive have decided to switch today's abandoned Cross Country Chase, to 1.15 on Sunday. The revamped CHELTENHAM NOVEMBER TRIXIE, will now be as follows, chronologically: Category 5 - CHELTENHAM NOVEMBER TRIXIE. LEG 1: GOLD CUP HANDICAP CHASE (2.25 Cheltenham Sat.) - Seection - LEG 2: CROSS COUNTRY CHASE (1.15 Cheltenham Sun.) - Selection - LEG 3: GREATWOOD HANDICAP HURDLE (3.00 Cheltenham Sun.) - Selection - STAKE - 3 x 25p EACH WAY Doubles, 25p EACH WAY Treble. ANTONYBR7, CASSIE/SE12, KIRKCALDY WEATHER and TOMSE12, have already registered their Selections for Category 5. Just waiting on LASSIE23 and SUMMER SUN, who are no doubt waiting on the Result of this Afternoon's 3 PM Inspection and what tomorrow's ground conditions, will be like. I will Post up the Racing Post links to the Final Declarations for tomorrow's Competition Races, once the Result of the 3 PM Inspection at Cheltenham, is known. Regards, Tom.
  20. Morning all... Just noticed a big increase in snow over the French Alps and Spain this morning.. Also that the snow line has now reached the Pacific. So the whole mass has moved Eastward. US nic this morning - thanks to Katrine for posting the graphic.... A general increase in ice cover with only Barents looking to lose out, Southern Kara is rapidly filling in, but Northern Kara was reduced somewhat by the movement of the polar ice cap slightly north. Large increases in both Beaufort(if not already full!) and Chukchi again, despite the warm temperatures shown there. This morning we have some information from the Mosaic project... It seems that they were buffeted a storm for 3 -4 days from around the 10th of November and hence communication was negligible. A very latest report has shown that the temperature in the area has increased to round -14C this week. So an increase of around 7 -10 degrees has occurred. Back later with more data. MIA
  21. Indeed , another interesting FI again though. Greeny high seems a pretty strong bet going on current 10 day charts. Can we get in on the action is another question.
  22. Being a professional doesn't exclude being a nutter as well. Believe me I've met a few
  23. The salient phrase in my post is 'little regard'
  24. Here comes the plunge into continental Europe anyway - too far East to affect us but a good building block, the troughing SW of Greenland will be just too strong on this run for us to get a direct hit.
  25. Aye, very strange...It's a case of a -NAO producing very un--NAO-like weather...? Curiouser and curiouser?
  26. Should that WAA dig further into Greenland we may get a cut off high with a Northerly down the Eastern flank - we shall see in a minute!!
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