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Frosty roofed this morning but the best bit, it's sunny and dry.

Dry with patchy cloud and a white ground frost; lowest temperature=0.8 C, the lowest this month

A beautiful, lovely, cold, crisp and bright February morning here.

0° on the way in to work, what the hell

Beautiful clear start to the day, was 1°C at 6am but felt colder, couldn't see any frost. Currently still clear, but some cloud appearing in the distant NE.

1911, 1975, 1976, 1995 (almost), 2018 and 2022 are all very confused by this statement. If anything the first-year El Ninos are more likely to be wet and mild as we've seen over the last year. Second-year La Ninas are really the only ones that seem to have no chance of anything seriously warm outside of 1975 or 1999. Frigid I only want a single day so I can get a haircut, then we can go back to warmth that is more normal for the time of year. Knowing our luck though, we'll get a day or two in the low-20s before returning to fairly overcast conditions, and then in late May we'll go straight from that to some sort of September 2023-like heatwave with an unprecedented number of days above 30°C, because moderation isn't allowed anymore. That's a good question actually, what would the exact same heatwave as September 2023 look like in late May? Higher temps or lower temps? Fewer or more days above 30°C? Of course May has cooler air and SSTs than September, but that doesn't seem like a factor at the moment owing to the global situation, and in late May the Sun is already at July levels of strength vs early September already being back to early April levels, so I'd be leaning towards the same heatwave in late May with the current global situation reaching higher temperatures and 1-2 more days above 30°C, which shows you really how exceptional that heatwave was. In late July or early August that heatwave could probably have been expected to bring about 10-12 consecutive days above 30°C and about nine of those above 34°C.

Bath maxima 27th: 71.4°F 28th: 62.0°F 29th: 46.5°F 30th: 48.2°F 1st: 41.6°F Bayfordbury 27th: 77°F 28th: 62°F 29th: 48°F 30th: 50°F 1st: 42.5°F Bristol maxima 27th: 68°F 28th: 60°F 29th: 45°F 30th: 48°F 1st: 41°F Glasgow maxima 27th: 59°F 28th: 61°F 29th: 49°F 30th: 46°F Liverpool maxima 27th: 70.6°F 28th: 57.5°F 29th: 49.4°F 30th: 47.3°F 1st: 46.0°F London maxima 27th: 81°F 28th: 69°F 29th: 51°F 30th: 50°F 1st: 45°F Manchester maxima 27th: 76°F 28th: 52°F 29th: 51°F 30th: 48°F 1st: 46°F 2nd: 43°F

Looks like another morning to scrape the ice off the windscreen; certainly not unheard of in April but I feel like we’ve had more early morning frosts this month than Jan - March combined. Good to see the forecasters are still pushing the gradual warming next week and the Met extended outlook is talking about warm or even very warm conditions as we going further into next month so maybe we are finally seeing the end of this wretched period of weather and can look forward to venturing out without the need for a jacket. We’re not there yet though and the weekend is looking wet and cold for some although for a change it’s borderline for our our region and we may just about scrape a predominately dry couple of days with the wettest conditions to our south and east.

Cold and clear light winds Temp 0.5C, Barometer 1002mb steady, Wind F1 N, Rainfall Nil

-1.1°C

Also captured some stunning structures and bases from the storms in the plains from the chasers.

Lowering my CET guess now to 11.6 thanks to the negative AO/NAO.

danm He was talking about it like it is a given and will last as long as the current rubbish we have endured. A couple of sunny and dry 35c days is nothing to worry about when we've had almost constant rain and cloud for months and months, and will have it later in the year too.

B87 my point was more that blasts of intense heat, as @Cheshire Freezewas talking about, are becoming more common. Even during average Summers. 2020 was a great example. A very warm mid July to mid August with an intense heatwave in early August.

WYorksWeather wonder if the ECM clusters support that? I think also the weather in the tropics should be taken note of. i reckon the warm IOD is also causing problems as well with the atmosphere. If I'm honest we need something a bit more neutral across all areas so something more sustained can come off. According to world climate service it'll be a while before we get a positive AO/NAO combination. To be fair also I am starting to find them very credible indeed.

No this is first El Niño winter since 2018/19… La Niña has been dominant. The Arctic 80N+ hasn’t been abnormally warm either in 2024 so far. There isn’t a good correlation on poles, tenuous at best.

danm A few days hot blast in an otherwise cool and unsettled summer (2015, 2020 etc) does not consitute a hot summer to me. 2018 and 2022 were good throughout. 2019 seemed like a fairly average summer, with the increased temp in July and August making up for the rain and lack of sun in June. 2021 was an awful summer. 2023 had a great June, awful July and poor August (a bit like 2017 with the July and August switched). 2016 had probably the worst June ever, a mixed to poor July and a good August. 2015 was alright in June and the first 10 days of July. The rest was bad. 2014 was good but the hottest day was only 30.3c. 2013 was good in July and August. 2012, 2011, 2008 and 2007 were awful. 2009 and 2010 were mixed, but August 2010 was one of the worst ever.

We’ve had several hot blasts in recent years, not just 2018 and 2022. Those two summers were exceptional. The number of 35c+ days has increased significantly over the last 5 or 6 years.

Azazel April and May have the prospect of summer to come and for this reason I always feel are the most positive of months.

Just saw this thread. In terms of where we stand globally - the first three months of the year, and likely the first four, have all outperformed last year. The key will be the speed of the ENSO transition, I imagine. Both the Arctic and Antarctic are currently running a bit below average. Global temperature records are being driven primarily by extraordinary and record-breaking warmth in the tropics at the moment. Here is the ENSO plume projection initialised in March. The consensus is currently for neutral ENSO or weak La Nina for Northern Hemisphere summer, and moderate La Nina for the Northern Hemisphere autumn. If we see this slow down a little, it would increase the probability of 2024 surpassing 2023. Right now it's probably still too early to say.

Suspect a notably cool CET value for today. Max temp anywhere 13 degrees at Shoreham Airport, widespread low single digits mins. A widespread frost tonight as well. Colder than many a mean temp in Feb this year! Hope people have not been lulled into potting tender plants out early..

*Stormforce~beka* i apologise too, It’s important you get a break in the evenings, peace and quiet

Christ, i remember when this forum was weather based and not a resemblance of 'Facebook lite' or Mums.net

TwisterGirl81 I apologise too for my assumptions.

Wold Topper And the fact that La Nina summers are all October-like jokes.