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  2. Thanks for clarifying the Nick i was prob getting a bit hasty with regards to amplitude in that sector and getting carried away as do most folk on here when they see even a sniff of cold scenario's in the NWP'S lets hope we see this amplitude gain momentum over the coming days.
  3. 18z ensembles aint buying into the op's thoughts we will have to wait and see where this goes but I still find it hard to trust the FV3 with its history of a cold bias.
  4. That's not a -NAO though, pressure still quite a bit lower over Iceland than over the Azores, if there's high pressure over Iceland and low pressure over Azores to Lisbon then yes. Not expecting 00z GFS to repeat 18z moment of wintry euphoria, enjoy the virtusl cold and snowfest while you can!
  5. At last something to give some hope ! I think the Canadian high is now going to have a lot of expectations placed on it , we really need this to verify as it will give a window of opportunity as it moves east . We could also do with losing the bulging troughing to the west , and as Nick F earlier mentioned the spoiler towards the Azores . The GFS clears that further to the sw , we don’t want that phasing with the troughing to the nw as the upstream flow amplifies. Anyway lets just hope that Canadian high is there in the morning . At least both the ECM and GFS have this and coldies in here really deserve a change of fortune . We await tomorrow’s runs !
  6. Just give it another week from then... What could go wrong.... GFS 18z always verifies.
  7. The first warming of the two seems to be intensifying somewhat, can we see some -8s or even -4s I wonder in tomorrows runs?
  8. pub run going off on one.. another let down coming straight up in the morning when its gone.
  9. Very nice GFS 18, but I'm not keeping my hopes up just yet. The PV will have to weaken at some point, but can't see that happening before the 10-15th of February. We're in a weather pattern that is very difficult to unblock.
  10. Evening nice to see that the gfs is churning out yet another stonker of a run as did last nights when it was trying to sniff out a Scandi block but it's all for good viewing purposes only until we count it down,and the pv looks to be weakening with double barrels of warmings happening in fl nice chart at 336 a good -NAO sig there just waiting for the latest 18z strat charts to come out but look at the 12z,two warmings putting stress on the spv there. 18z out now. over to the gefs ens to see where it fits,hopefully a good set this time as the 12z was a bit shocking.
  11. Was wondering when a GFS operational would bring back from the dead a northerly. 12z extended EPS mean indicates the postive height anomaly / HLB over Canada slowly migrating towards Greenland by day 15, while a negative H500 anomaly persists over Scandinavia. This perhaps highlights potential for northerlies and this movement of positive heights out of Canada appears to be the catalyst for the 18z GFS northerly in FI. However, troughing modelled over the mid-Atlantic towards Azores needs to do one, as per 18z, in order to do this.
  12. Looking at the state of the strat in the longer range, you'd have to think that the AO will start to go negative as February progresses. Maybe some late season cold?
  13. As noted by others the GFS 18z is a lovely run and along the lines of my thoughts which I posted a while back about cooler / colder from the NW / N then attempts at higher pressure toward Greenland fitting in with MJO phases 6/7 though phase 7 weaker than originally thought. Obviously some caveats being that we have seen quite a few times the 18z runs tending to be quite a bit colder than the others and with the coupled strat and IOD those haven't helped either but with a weakening of IOD and a PV displacement likely fingers crossed that we will have a chance at something more akin to winter. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles show.
  14. Some places could see snow from Sunday onwards, temperatures not looking cold, but may just be low enough at times for snow to push down to 200-300m above sea level.
  15. A bank rate that would make even Wonga blush I'm ready to be hurt again.
  16. Yes although believe it or not it doesn't actually register any lying snow for you, but you would have to think that with a general pattern like that, the detail would upgrade nearer the time.
  17. Probably gone in the morning but let’s enjoy a good run once
  18. It’s about time the jet had a good trip south for a while
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