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  2. @mushymanrob I disagree slightly - john holmes knows his stuff and can interpret these charts as good as anyone else - he clearly said: 'Looking at the latest 6-10 day 500 mb anomaly output suggests that any upper ridging is a short lived affair with a mainly westerly pattern showing. You can see this, albeit certainly not cast in stone, on this morning's ECMWF if you play the previous chart from yesterday. This has a marked +ve ehight anomaly this morning no sign. NOAA also shows this over the past 2 days or so. I generally take NOAA as the most reliable with EC following and GFS some way behind unless it is similar to the other two. No GFS either yesterday or today on the link I have. The 8-14 NOAA similar to the 6-10. To me it remains looking like a NW-SE split on average through the next 2 weeks. Obviously they are 'mean' charts and some divergence on occasasional days will occur but no major difference over the period as a whole.' Which is what we were shown - transitory Azores ridging, better in the SE compared to the NW, broadly westerly, temps probably 15-23c. Certainly no sustained imminent settled/hot spell. A couple of days later and we could possibly end up with a 5 day+ heat wave with temperatures potentially into the upper 20's/ low 30's. Completely different if you ask me. The anomaly charts are good as a broad schematic, and most of the time are pretty accurate, but they can be subject to unexpected changes such as going on now. They are only as good as the data available when they are made, so if we get some unexpected changes a couple of days later, they aren't going to verify as you'd expect.
  3. The GFS 06Z Ops run was in top quatile from the ensembles however was in no way at an any time an outlier with the mean being dragged down by a couple of members which look hugely out of touch. One thing I find promising in the ensembles is that there is no huge spikes followed by an abrupt crash indicating a rapid trough disruption and eastwards shunt of the heat. While there's almost no thundery weather anticipated yep there is plenty of time for that to develop, lets get a lengthy spell of heat going first and worry about TS activity later.
  4. Plenty of cloud around, but it has started to break up now, allowing the sun to come out. 21°C
  5. French F1 GP looks like starting after the England game as finished. Phew!

  6. The high res. MODIS at 1130 UTC (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station)
  7. Japan winning 1-0 cloudy daze will be pleased:wink:

  8. Manchester ensembles are very dry
  9. Stunning Gfs 6z..here are the gorgeous charts!
  10. A rather uninspiring grey and muggy 20C here, this morning... But - fear not! - temps of 37C (99F!) are already being mooted for next week in (yes, you've guessed it) the MAD thread! PS: lassie's melons will be the size of sultanas!
  11. Today
  12. i disagree about no suggestion of any high pressure building. there has been a gradual build of pressure for a while now, but not strong enough to develop a large pressure build. i actually mentioned this some time ago. the anomaly charts rarely send you up the garden path, and whilst the gfs can sometimes spot a change before the anomaly charts do, like this time, its fi predictions are proven inaccurate time and time again. its extremely rare for a large pattern change within 6 days to occur without the noaa charts picking up on this. so i for one will carry on viewing them first, then ill see which op run is closest, that way is the best way of discovering the most likely pattern we will get in the 6-14 day period. no garden paths, no false hope, just reality.
  13. Not suggesting 35C - merely the point that the maxes can be undercooked, regardless of the conditions / synoptics.
  14. Yes, lets not forget 37C has only been recorded on 2days accurately in the last 100+ years. Uppers then we about 21-22C. We are some way of that.
  15. There's a few ensembles that could do that, but then there always are at this time of year? I'd say it's just the chances are higher this time round e.g. instead of a 5% chance of 37C within 14 days, I'd give it a 15% chance.
  16. Yes I know we've all seen that. However temps currently progged next week are assumed under continuous sunshine and almost perfect conditions so would expect them to be a little more accurate, the algorithms within the models should take into consideration the dry ground state. To be getting towards 35C you really need uppers of 18-20C IMO.
  17. Seems to be different errors in different situations. ECM op run maxes have similar issues. The only ones that seem right more than often in a hot spell is the AROME or HIRLAM, and they only go out 2 days!! Probably best to see model output on temperatures as a guide e.g. 27C = somewhere between 25C and 30C
  18. Definatley Flaming June if this comes off. You will never find better charts than what GFS 00z and 06z showing,. Jet Stream well pushed to the North, TT1000-500 564Dm right over the UK with several days under blue skies and hot sunshine I wont be surprised if we can get 850 uppers touching 20C out of this. Even Scotland could comfortably reach the low 30s as daytime length is at its max. South Easterners should consider getting their air conditioning working as I wouldn't rule out 37C in the usual hotspots given how bone its been down there Echos of 1976?
  19. Sometimes the maxes have been out by a lot more than 3C. I’ve seen 25C on GFS charts forecast 6 hours out when in reality 30C was reached.
  20. i think maxes look reasonable, I think adding 3C is maybe a bit much. Despite the incredible set-up its more a build your own heatwave rather rather the air getting dragged up from north Africa. At the moment I would say the uppers of 15/16C would deliver 30-32C in the south and quite unusually that build your heat looks like being relatively dry so many not as oppressive as some warmer spells in recent years.
  21. And as GFS tends to undercook maxes, you could probably add 2 or 3 degrees to that figure.
  22. some of my photos, just unfortunate I have a street light right in front of my house.
  23. Getting rather bored of this 'nothing' weather now. It's noticeably warmer but still predominantly grey. 20C with 88% humidity.
  24. Sweaty, stifling, sizzling, outrageous 6z. Fantastic?!!!??
  25. Wimbledon88

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    Looks like normal summer fayre to be honest. South east of a line from Bristol to the Wash,pretty damn good,sunny and very warm,north and north-west of that line,very mediocre,damp and drizzly with the odd heavier burst I would imagine. Average summer weather,nought to get excited about.
  26. slow_learner

    Question about cummulus maximum height.

    Thanks for your anwser.
  27. Beautiful Gfs 6z operational with predominantly very warm / hot anticyclonic conditions and even a plume at the end of June / start of July with a risk of thunderstorms..stunning run.
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