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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 11



This is the 11th blog, and there have some real ups and downs.

The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 8th blog (Issued 18 June) was slightly more negative and scored 7.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 9th blog (Issued 19 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 10th blog (Issued 20 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.

Hopefully things have finally settled down with no further spanners in the works.

[b]Run up to festival[/b]

Monday starts rather unsettled with some rain seemingly likely for the Glastonbury area, as a front moves South Eastwards during the morning/ early afternoon. Expected Precipitation amounts run to run but have settles down to the 5-10mm range. Perhaps brightening up a little later in the day.
Tuesday continues to look drier as pressure builds from the west.

[b]Daily Forecasts for Festival [/b]

[size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
As per yesterdays forecast low Pressure remains locked out to the west over the Atlantic, with a weak area of High Pressure building over Southern UK, giving benign settled conditions with the best of any
sunshine in the afternoon, Mostly dry temps low 20s.

[attachment=253565:ECM 20th June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253575:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253570:GFS 21th June 00Hz + 72.JPG] [attachment=253582:GFS 21th June 06Hz + 72.JPG]

[b][size=3]Thursday 25th June [/size][/b]
Low Presume makes slow progress towards the UK, with a ridge of High Pressure holding in place for Thursday for Southern parts of the UK, with further benign settled conditions, Mostly Dry Temps Low 20s, perhaps a degree or so warmer than Wednesday.

[attachment=253564:ECM 21st June 00Hz + 72.png] [attachment=253576:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 96.png][attachment=253569:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 96.JPG] [attachment=253581:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 96.JPG]

[size=3][b]Friday 26th June [/b][/size]
Low Pressure continues to edge closer, with fronts staring to make inroads across the UK, so some rain is likely at times for Glastonbury. However at this stage with slightly high pressure to the south, the heaviest of the rain may effect more North western parts of the UK with rather damp cloudy conditions expected for Glastonbury for much of the day, however this done mean rainfall amounts are likely to be under 5mm.

Temps again low 20s with Sunshine amounts currently looking very limited.

There still remains uncertainty on this with rainfall amounts varying run to run, to trace rainfall to perhaps as much as 10mm, Current trends are currently going towards the lower of these at the moment.

[attachment=253563:ECM 21st June 00Hz +120.png] [attachment=253577:UKMO 21st June 00Hz + 120.png] [attachment=253568:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 120.JPG] [attachment=253580:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 120.JPG]

[size=3][b][size=3][b]Saturday 27th June[/b][/size][/b][/size]
A mild south westerly flow seems likely on Saturday, with perhaps a ridge of High Pressure from the South West. still the chance of some showers, but this risk seems smaller than yesterday.

Temps a bit cooler high teens/Low 20s. Confidence remains quite low in the detail at the moment.

[attachment=253562:ECM 21st June 00Hz +144.png] [attachment=253567:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 144.JPG] [attachment=253579:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 144.JPG]
[b][size=3]Sunday 28th June[/size][/b]
A mild South westerly flow again on Sunday, this time with lower pressure with some uncertainty as to rainfall amounts later in the day or into Monday.

Temps again Low 20s. Detail again uncertain

[attachment=253560:ECM 21st June 00Hz +168.png] [attachment=253566:GFS 21st June 00Hz + 168.JPG] [attachment=253578:GFS 21st June 06Hz + 168.JPG]

[b]Ground Conditions [/b]
The rain on Monday which could be around 5-10mm is likely to soften the ground and this may cause a little mud when the doors open on Wednesday, however the mostly dry conditions to start the festival should ease this.

At this stage some rain is expected on Friday, but this continues to look smaller than was feared so as things stand shouldn't cause any serious mud problems. Further rain/showers are possible are over the weekend, more especially Sunday however things are looking reasonable at the moment, but worth keeping an eye on the situation at the end of the festival.

[b]Ensembles [/b]
[attachment=253572:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253584:Ensemble Pressure 21 June 06Hz.png]
Pressure now largely around 1020mb, with a light drop around Friday.

[attachment=253573:Ensemble Rain 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253583:Ensemble Rain 21 June 06Hz.png]
After the rain Monday, mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Thereafter some ensembles have some a little rain on Friday and over the weekend, but most perhaps the weekend rain now being moved to Late Sunday/Early Monday.

[attachment=253574:Ensemble Temp 21 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=253585:Ensemble Temp 21 June 06Hz.png]
Temps rising steadily from +5c to close to +10c by Friday and staying there over the weekend. Meaning temps low 20s for the most part.

[b][b]Summary [/b][/b]

The trend of yesterday continues, so not looking that bad at all for the moment. temps 20s most days, some sun, with some rain Friday and perhaps over the weekend, more especially Sunday, but at this stage not looking that troublesome.

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