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Glastonbury Festival 2015 24 to 28 June - Forecast No 2

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J10

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This is the second blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], the roller coaster continues.

At this stage we are still using long term models, but from next week the beginning of the festival period is coming into long term GFS range, so this blog will reflect that.

However, for this week we are using the same models as last week.

1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com]

[b]1. CFS Monthly Charts[/b]

[b]June[/b]

The pressure charts show a slight positive anomaly but not massively significant, the temperature charts continue to be above average, especially for northern parts of the UK, with rainfall to be around average for most southern areas.

[attachment=251540:June 15 Pressure 31 May.png] [attachment=251541:June 15 Rainfall 31 May.png] [attachment=251542:June 15 Temps 31 May.png]
[b][b]July [/b][/b]
The pressure charts show pressure above average for all of the UK, but not hugely. Temps above average moreso for northern areas and a slightly bigger positive anomaly compared to last week. Rainfall around average, but above average in the Midlands areas, so overall a slight tendency towards above average rainfall.

[url="https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_05_2015/blogentry-213-0-68936000-1432493711.png"][attachment=251537:July 15 Pressure 31 May.png] [attachment=251538:July 15 Rainfall 31 May.png][attachment=251539:July 15 Temps 31 May.png][/url]

[b]2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra][/b][code=auto:0] Date read 18-23 June 24-28 June 24/05/2015 Ridge of HP over UK to start, then LP edging in from West West winds and zonal to start before HP builds over weekend 25/05/2015 Weak area of LP to start, then LP to west of UK West winds and flat pattern to start, then HP for start of weekend 26/05/2015 HP over N of UK being edged away by weaker pressure to South Pressure slowly building with weak High Pressure by weekend 27/05/2015 Unsettled with LP over UK LP over East to start, but flabby High building over UK 28/05/2015 Generally Unsettled to start but HP builds over UK HP to start but LP develops over UK 29/05/2015 LP to the west to start, but HP builds over UK for a time HP to the NE but LP edges in from the SW giving unsettled weather 30/05/2015 LP to start, but HP builds over the UK slowly HP slowly weakens, but pressure remains High to N and W. Less for the SE[/code][code=auto:0] Date read Summary Winds Temps Rain Out of 10 24/05/2015 Mild, Damp and Unsettled SW to W Light Orange / Orange Damp Wed-Thurs, Dry Weekend 7.5 25/05/2015 Mostly Dry and Warm SW to var Light Orange / Deep Orange Damp Wed Showery Thursday, Dry thereafter 8.0 26/05/2015 Mostly Dry and Very Warm NE to E Deep Orange Mostly Dry but odd shower possible 8.5 27/05/2015 Mostly Dry and warming up NE to E Yellow to Orange Showery, but risk diminishing over time 8.5 28/05/2015 Cool, dry until Sunday NE to NW Deep Orange to Light Orange Dry to start, rain Sunday 7.0 29/05/2015 mild, wet from Thursday E to SE Orange Dry to start, bands of rain from Thursday 4.0 30/05/2015 Warm, mostly Dry E to NE Light Orange / Orange Odd shower possible, but mostly dry in West 8.0[/code]
When compared to last weeks runs listed here -> [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4887-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-1/"]https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4887-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-1/[/url]

These are a big improvement. By my ratings, which are entirely subjective, they have gone from 5.1 out of 10to 7.4

[b]3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com][/b][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JUNE z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 23 May Yellow +8/+9 +3/+4 +3c/+4c +3c Light Blue White +6(SW)/+18(NE) +2 (SW)/+9(NE) +3c(SW)/+5c(NE) +2c(SE)/+4c(NW) Light Blue Gen, white Midlands /SE 24 May Yellow +7/+8 +3/+4 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Blue +6 (E)/ +8 (W) +2(N/S)/+4(Cen) +1c(SW)/+2c(NW) +0c(SE)/+4c(NW) Light Blue/Blue Generally 25 May Yellow +3/+4 +4/+5 -1c/-0c -1c/-0c Blue +2(SE)/ +8(NW) +4 (SE)/+8(NW) -1c(SW)/-0c(NW) -1c(SE)/+2c (N) Light Blue/Blue Generally 26 May Yellow -4/-3 -1 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Red -1(SW)/ +1(NE) -1 (SE)/-0(NW) -1c(SW)/+1c(NE) -0c(SE)/+2c(NW) White / Red Southern areas 27 May Yellow +2/+3 -1 +1c/+2c +1c/+2c Light +1(SW)/ +4(NE) -2 (SW)/+1(NE) +1c (S)/+3c (N) +1c (S)/+3c (N) White/Blue 28 May Yellow +0/+1 +5 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Blue/Deep Blue -2(NE)/ +2 (W) +2 (NE)/+5(SW) -2c(SE)/-1c(Gen) -1c(SE)/+1c(NE) Blue/Deep Blue Gen, white Midlands 29 May Yellow +4/+5 +2/+3 +0c/+1c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red +3 (W)/ +6 (E) +2 (W)/+3 (E) -1c (W)/+1c (E) -0c (S)/+2c (N) Blue/White South, Red Wales/Midlands [/code][code=auto:0] [/code][code=auto:0] Glastonbury Local Forecast UK Wide Forecast Pressure Temperature Pressure Temperature CFS Run JULY z500 PRMSL 850HPa Temp 2m Precipitation z500 PRMSL 850HPA Temp 2m Precipitation 23 May Yellow +1/+2 +0/+1 +0c/+1c +1c/+2c Red +0 (W)/ +2 (E) +0/+1 +0c(SW)/+1c(NE) +2c(SE)/+4c (N) Red Generally 24 May Yellow +5/+6 -2/-1 +4c/+5c +4c/+5c Red/Deep Red +2(SW)/+10(NE) -2(SW)/+6(NE) +3c(NE)/+4c(SW) +2c(SE)/+6c (NW) Red/Deep Red 25 May Yellow +2/+3 +2/+3 -0 +0c/+1c Light Blue +2(SW)/ -2 (N) -0 -0 -0c(SE)/+2c (NE) Light Blue South, Light Red midlands 26 May Yellow -7/-6 -4/-3 -2c/-1c -1c/-0c Red / Deep Red -6 (S)/ -2(NW) -2(S/N)/-3(Cen) -1c(SW)/+0c(NE) -1c(SE)/+4c (N) Red / Deep Red 27 May Yellow +0/+1 +1/+2 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Light Blue -1(SE)/ +3(NW) +1 (SE)/+3(NW) -1c (S)/+1c (N) -0c(SE)/+4c (N) Light Blue South, Light Red midlands 28 May Yellow -4/-3 -3/-2 -1c/-0c +0c/+1c Red / Deep Red -4(SW)/ +1(NW) -2 (SW)/+2(NW) -0 -0c(SE)/+2c (NW) Red / Deep Red 29 May Yellow -5/-4 -2/-1 -1c +0c/+1c White/ Light Red -5(SW)/ -1(NW) -2 (SE)/-0(NW) -1c (S)/+0c (N) -0c(SE)/+4c (N) White/Light Blue S areas, Red Midlands [/code]
I have added a PDF will all the figures from the spreadsheet, and a few things are noticeable.
[attachment=251548:Glastonbury 2015 29 May.pdf]

1. On the whole, the Meteociel CFS charts are not quite as positive as they were a week ago.
2. June is looking a whole lot better for settled weather than July.

[b]Summary[/b]

The CFS Monthly Charts (NW Extra) show no real change from last week , the daily CFS (NW Extra) show a big improvement from last week while the CFS Meteoceil runs are slightly worse, with an indication than June should be better than July.

Overall not a bad set of runs this week.
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