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Alps Weather Forecast 9 January 2015

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J10

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[size=4][font=arial][b]Summary[/b]

The past week for the Alps have been one for the skiers to enjoy the sunshine, but at the expense of long term snow especially on lower slopes, where temps have been above freezing and snow depths have been effected.
A suggested last week, areas further east have faired better with temperatures being much colder, with some snow at the start of this working week.
[b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]

I have changed the charts a little this week, removing the 850HPa chart with the 500Hpa thickness chart which IMO better shows the synoptic pattern and the air mass change. Please let me know if you agree or disagree with this change.
[attachment=237400:Alps 9 Jan.JPG]
This week across the Alps sees big temperatures contrasts, with spells of very mild Tropical Maritime air mass and spells days of much colder Polar Maritime air mass. So very much a mobile pattern with strong winds, but trying to pin detail on this is tricky, but here is my attempt.

[b]Saturday[/b]. The weekend starts with the the Alps under a Tropical maritime air mass over the Alps, with a NW flow on the North Eastern edge of the Azores High. Fronts from the North West will being some precipitation but snow limited to the higher slopes.
[attachment=237399:Alps 9 Jan +24.JPG]

[b]Sunday[/b] A cold front is set to edge down from the North West bringing some precipitation with more snow this time as it turns colder with a Polar maritime air mass, drying up later from the west as the Azores High ridging in.
[attachment=237398:Alps 9 Jan + 48.JPG]


[b]Monday.[/b] For the start of the next week, The Azores High ridges up from the South west introducing a TM air mass with South West winds with much milder and drier conditions.
[attachment=237397:Alps 9 Jan + 72.JPG]

[b]Midweek[/b] Another change by midweek as the High edges south west with colder air edging down from the North, although still with south westerly winds and further precipitation is expected.
[attachment=237396:Alps 9 Jan + 96.JPG] [attachment=237395:Alps 9 Jan +120.JPG]
[b]Thursday / Friday[/b] Briefly milder on Thursday, before turning colder by Friday with a North West wind and a Polar Maritime airmass with some showers or longer periods of precipitation with snow to quite low levels.
[attachment=237394:Alps 9 Jan +144.JPG] [attachment=237393:Alps 9 Jan +168.JPG]

Even though the pattern is set, timings are very uncertain especially towards next weekend.[/font][/size]

[size=4][font=arial][b]Precipitation[/b]

Saturday - Moderate to heavy precipitation in Central areas overnight this becoming more concentrated towards Austria later in the morning before becoming drier later. Snow Levels 1800m to start, well over 2000m later.

Sunday - A cold front is set to edge in from the North West overnight into Sunday, initially giving heavy precipitation for SW Germany, N and W Switzerland. This moving over much of Switzerland, W Austria, S Germany and the French Alps by morning, again with some heavy bursts. Snow levels dropping as the front edges south, 600m on the back edge to 1200m on the front edge, with moderate snowfall in places.
By mid afternoon, the precipitation fading further west, but patchy snow possible for parts of Austria during late afternoon and early evening.

Wednesday - Another front edging down from the North West overnight into Wednesday, with moderate bursts at times, snow level around 1200-1400m.

Friday A repeat performance into Friday, with another cold front edging down from the North West, and with some moderate precipitation for Northern and Western areas, snow level dropping to around 600m behind the front. Looking rather unsettled into Friday with further periods of snow down to quite low levels.[/font][/size]
[attachment=237410:Rmgfs144sum 9 Jan.gif]
Some moderate precipitation possible this week, more especially for Northern and Western areas.
[size=4][font=arial][b]Freezing Levels[/b] (Based on 12Hz GFS run – Fri 9 Jan)

Sat – 2400m-2600m Central parts of the Alps up to 3000-30600, Southern Switzerland and S Austria, N Italy
[attachment=237408:Alps Temps 9 Jan +24.png]

Sun –600m-1000m Germany, Northern Austria and N Switzerland, 1200-1500m Far S Austria, S Switzerland and French Alps.
[attachment=237407:Alps Temps 9 Jan + 48.png]
Mon – 800-1000m Far West Austria, 1000-1800m rest of Austria, 2000-2000m Switzerland and France

[attachment=237406:Alps Temps 9 Jan +72.png]
Tue – 1400-1800 Switzerland and N Italy 2200-2400m generally elsewhere, over 3000m NE Austria.
[attachment=237405:Alps Temps 9 Jan +96.png]

Wed 1000m-1200m Germany, Northern Austria and N Switzerland, 1200-1600m elsewhere

[attachment=237404:Alps Temps 9 Jan +120.png]
Thurs – 1200m-1600m Switzerland and N Italy 1800-2200m generally elsewhere
[attachment=237403:Alps Temps 9 Jan + 144.png]
Fri – 600m-800m Austria, Germany, France and most of Switzerland, 1000m-1400m S Switzerland and N Italy
[attachment=237401:Alps Temps 9 Jan +168.png]

[b]Summary[/b]

Very mixed this week, but with the colder interludes looking unsettled, the chance of considerable snowfalls especially over higher slopes this week.[/font][/size]
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