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Weather guide Monday 5th to Sunday 11th January 2015

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TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable with rain and strong winds at times; variable but overall mild temperatures[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Cold and frosty the start of last week, some hard night frosts, lowest values Sunday night -8.4c Llanwnnen, Pembrey -6.7c, Pershore -6.3c, then Monday night Pershore -6.3c, Hereford and Shobdon -6.1c. Lovely sunny weather by day though which raised temperatures into the mild category as early as Tuesday across much of West Wales (WW) the highest readings being Milford Haven and Valley at 10.4c, in contrast and in spite of the sunshine parts of the Midlands only managed a chilly 4 or 5c. Another frost for the Midlands Tuesday night, but milder SW winds moved into WW and onto all parts in time for the New Year. A very mild New Year's Day highs over 11c everywhere, it was a wet and windy start to 2015 across WW with gales in exposed places, Capel Curig in Snowdonia received 63mm rain Thursday. Temperatures for the week peaked overnight Thursday, Hereford mildest at 14c, with many paces above 12c as a Tropical air mass swathed Wales and England! Contrasting temperatures then on Saturday as a low crossed the south, maxima of 12c over far SW Wales under the warm sector but just 5c or 6c across mid Wales and the Midlands. Cold last (Saturday) night -5c the lowest being in Shropshire, while the -3.8c at Coventry was the coldest night since Spring 2013 (see [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url] ).[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]December 2014[/b] saw average or slightly above average temperatures with rainfall ranging from below average to just above average and it was a sunny Winter's month. Some rainfall totals:[/font][/color]


[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanwnnen 152.7mm = 106%
Trawsgoed c. 165mm = rather wet
Aberporth 82.0mm = rather dry
Milford Haven 66.8mm = dry
RAF Mona 96.2mm = average
Coventry, Bablake 59.6mm = average
Long Lawford 44mm = 84%
Church Lawford c. 48mm = rather dry
Little Rissington 46.4mm = rather dry
Pershore 41.2mm = rather dry
Hereford c. 27mm = dry[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]As for the year of [b]2014[/b] this has been a notably warm year - the warmest for Central England in the 350 year temperature series in fact! The only month that saw below average temperatures of course had to be August! Most areas had rather a wet year thanks to the exceptionally wet Winter 2013/14, some annual rainfall totals:[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanwnnen 1526.7mm (116%)[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Long Lawford 735.1mm (115%)[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coventry, Bablake 847.5mm (122%)[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Few places below 1000 feet altitude had any lying snow last year while parts of the South Midlands did not see a single snowflake fall throughout 2014 - a truly snowless year![/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Another changeable week to come, the general theme that it is mostly dry to begin with but turning windy and at times wet from mid week, and for the most part it is a mild week within fluctuating temperatures. High pressure means Sunday is dry but quite cold, especially over the Midlands where it has been a foggy morning. A few sunny intervals Sunday afternoon but many areas remain cloudy or misty, highs between 4 and 6c generally but 8c possible over Pembrokeshire. Conversely should the fog stick parts of the Midlands no higher than 2c. Becoming frosty and in places foggy again this evening for the Midlands, for West Wales (WW) though it should stay frost and fog free, lowest readings just below zero Midlands and nearer 5c for WW coasts. Milder SW winds spread across after midnight and so the fog and frost is all gone by dawn and WW is mild with drizzle in places to greet Monday morning. Monday a largely cloudy milder day, a weak front gives occasional drizzle to WW but a mostly dry day for the Midlands. HIghs Monday 7c Midlands and 9 or 10c WW. A mild night follows further rain or drizzle on and off for WW but it remains mostly dry Midlands just the odd spit possible, no lower than 5c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Tuesday sees a weakening cold front trundle east bringing patchy rain and drizzle across all parts, although parts of the Midlands again missing out. Once the front passes we should see brighter weather afternoon and mostly dry, highs 8 to 10c so quite a mild day again. A transient ridge permits clearing skies and frost during Tuesday evening and night, down to -2 or -3c in places, although the frost should have melted by dawn across WW. Changes again during Wednesday as a deep low in the vicinity of Iceland starts to control our weather. We enter an unsettled, often mild and rather disturbed spell seeing wet and windy weather at times this lasting through to the weekend. Cloud and strengthening SW winds then for WW Wednesday morning bringing rain by midday, while for the Midlands it is a dry chilly morning but clouds over. A windy afternoon with spells of rain eventually for all, this heavy at times WW, and it turns mild everywhere by evening. Highs during Wednesday evening 9 to 11c. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The cold front lingers with further rain well into Wednesday night but should be clearing through all parts by dawn Thursday, by which time it turns somewhat colder with some showers into WW. Thursday we may eke out a weak ridge and get a reasonably dry and bright day, bar a few rain and hail showers into WW that is. Highs cooler at 5 to 7c with a chilly moderate to fresh WNW breeze. Trouble could well be brewing though for Thursday night into Friday as a deep secondary low looks set to develop and pass north of Scotland. A spell of wet and windy weather then into Friday, gales in places along with locally heavy rain, but at least it should not last too long. Hopefully then things improve for at least a while during Friday with another drier brighter interlude. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Next weekend and the disturbed theme continues as another deep low passes north of Scotland on Saturday bringing more wet and windy weather and possibly gales, as well as a very mild sector of double figure surface air be it day or night. Later on Saturday into Sunday is a long way off in the world of weather models but it looks like we could have alternated into one of those colder bright spells, showers affecting WW in particular and with hill snow probable, and a brisk NW wind. Hints of something colder from the middle of January and although no 'Big Freeze' we could be seeing some wintry conditions at times as we progress through January (i.e. typical Winter weather!)[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=236482:PPVG89 mild MO dr WW.png][attachment=236483:PPVJ89 CF liottle rain TU.png][attachment=236484:ecmt850.048 weakening CF Tu little rain.png][attachment=236485:PPVK89 R frost Tu night.png][attachment=236486:PPVL89 DL Ice starts unsettled spell.png][attachment=236487:metslp.120 DL n of SCot turns wet windy Thu night.png][attachment=236488:viewimage VM windy some rain FR night.png][attachment=236489:ecmt850.144 v mild wet gales Sat.png][attachment=236490:viewimage r cold showery WEND.png][attachment=236491:up down temps.png][attachment=236492:viewimage increasingly unsettled week.png][attachment=236493:viewimage some rain times Mids.png][attachment=236494:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
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