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Weather guide Monday 8th to Sunday 14th December 2014

TonyH

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[b]Headline: Unsettled, rather cold and often windy; showers especially across Wales with hill snow; overnight frost and ice[/b][/font][/color]
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[b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]
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Rather cold but with plenty of dry weather last week, West Wales in particular having some sharp frosts. Lowest readings were -5.3c Llanwnnen and -4.8c Tirabad (Powys) on Tuesday night, then -6.3c Llawnnen and -5c Trawsgoed Wednesday night, with Friday night then cold for the Midlands, -4.1c at Pershore and -3.3c at Church Lawford the lowest readings. Sunshine at times though last week, especially Wednesday which was a lovely sunny day for most areas. Thursday was the coldest day of the week as most places stayed overcast, just 1.8c the high here at Llanwnnen thanks to an inversion (cold still air trapped at the surface) - and the coldest day here since March 2013 due to last Winter being so mild and wet! Much of Wales away from the coast and the Cotswolds did not exceed 4c on Thursday. Some showers occurred during Friday with some hail, and with wintriness over highest ground. Saturday was then a milder day for most places up to 9 or 10c along the Welsh coast, even milder air coming with the rain on Saturday night/ Sunday morning, many places getting up to 9 to 11c. Most of the Midlands has received under 1mm rain in the past 7 days, in what has been a dry start to December everywhere.[/font][/color]
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[b]The week ahead[/b][/font][/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]

The coming week is quite cold for the most part, just briefly mild during Tuesday. Unsettled and often windy too with showers and some longer spells of rain, and snow over the hills. Just the chance that some snow affects lower ground too at times but this should not amount to much. Early rain has cleared this Sunday morning and temperatures are gradually falling this afternoon as colder air moves in from the NW. Showers, with hail and later wintriness for higher ground, affecting Wales this afternoon and evening but the Mildands are largely dry with sunny intervals, but feeling cool everywhere in a fresh west to NW wind. Further rain, hail and sleet showers affecting much of Wales overnight with continued blustery winds, a few showers may reach the Midlands too; snow in the showers above about 300m. In spite of the wind, a widespread ground frost readily forms tonight during any clear spells with lows of 0 to 3c, so icy patches to watch out for first thing Monday. [/font][/color]
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Bright and breezy for Monday, mostly dry with sunny spells over the Midlands, but some more wintry showers for WW these perhaps dying down by the late afternoon. Rather cold on Monday highs between 4 and 6c. A strong but transient ridge Monday night sees clearing skies and decreasing winds, ingredients for a widespread frost, minima between 0 and -2c, milder for coasts. A bright frosty start to Tuesday then, but already cloud and increasing winds arriving for WW ahead of Atlantic fronts. These fronts in association with an intense depression crossing Iceland (central pressure below 940mbar) - and which will dominate the UK weather for the rest of the week as it gradually tracks east towards Scandinavia. Rain at times for WW by midday, and it clouds over for the Midlands early afternoon, the rain the extending here too by dusk. Much of the rain quite light but some heavier bursts for WW in particluar late afternoon to early evening. Strong SW winds for all areas through Tuesday afternoon and evening, with gales for exposed areas. At least the rain fronts do contain a warm sector and Tuesday evening sees the mildest weather of the whole week, maxima by then at 10 to 12c, tempered of course by the wind and rain! The cold front should have cleared the rain away by around midnight to give clear spells and local grass frost as temperatures sharply drop off later in the night to between 2 to 4c. Winds do tend to ease on Tuesday night.[/font][/color]
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During Wednesday the very deep low is situated between Iceland and Scotland, a strong cold WNW wind drives in frequent showers across Wales with some making it into the Midlands as well. Showers mostly of rain and hail, with thunder in places, but hail, sleet and snow predominates above about 300m, and even lower down dont be surprised to see a few snowflakes in the mix! Highs Wednesday just 4 to 6c, feeling cold in the wind, but South Pembrokeshire is more sheltered and so managing the odd 8c thereabouts. The showers keep on through the night across WW still with a fresh to strong wind making it feel bitter, and a decent snow cover for the hills by morning. In spite of the wind ground frost and ice may be quite a feature on Wednesday night.[/font][/color]
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Thursday, another windy showery and quite cold day in the offing, most of the showers again across Wales, with the Midlands afforded shelter in the main, again some heavy, locally thundery hail showers with hill snow featuring. Highs Thursday once more likely to be in the 4 to 7c range, with sunny intervals between the blustery showers. Complications for Thursday night seem likely as a secondary low develops and crosses the UK bringing more general wet weather. A wet and windy night then seems likely, gales in places and the threat of further hill snow. Frost unlikely with the cloud, rain and wind. A slight possibility that this anticipated Thursday night/ Friday morning feature decides to track across southern UK in which case we could see the rain turning to snow even at lower levels across Wales and the Midlands, so something to be aware of closer to the time when precise tracking becomes more known, but with potential travel issues perhaps for Friday morning![/font][/color]
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Once the rain, sleet or snow clears on Friday morning we are back into a showery NW regime, a familar tale of rain and hail showers rattling off the Irish Sea into WW and the NW Midlands particularly, even a crack of thunder for a few of us. Again cold enough for snow above about 1000 feet, Snowdonia and the Brecon Beacons in particular seeing fresh coverings. Rather cold and windy highs 4 to 6c so another chilly day. Parts of the Midlands, as will have been the case for much of the week, escape largely dry and bright however. Next weekend and we still have low pressure north of Scotland and so our weather continues unsettled. Showers and perhaps a longer spell of rain then, with some drier, brighter interludes. Windy at times with temperatures below normal (should be around 8c), so still the risk of snow for high ground, and we could be seeing more widespread night frosts by this stage if winds ease.[/font][/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[attachment=232288:PPVG89 r cold showers Mo m dry Mids though.png][attachment=232289:ecmt850.048 frosty R Mo night.png][attachment=232290:PPVJ89 rain strong winds pm Tu.png][attachment=232291:viewimage wet windy Tu pm.png][attachment=232293:ecmt850.072 rain clears Tu night windy.png][attachment=232294:PPVL89 r cold windy showery Wed.png][attachment=232295:viewimage r cold windy showery WE hill snow.png][attachment=232296:ecmt850.120 sec L wet windy Th night.png][attachment=232297:viewimage r cold showers FR.png][attachment=232298:ecmt850.168 r cold unsettled weekend.png][attachment=232299:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=232300:viewimage low pressure from late Tu.png][attachment=232301:viewimage r cold week bar late Tu.png][attachment=232302:viewimage unsettled week.png][/font][/color]

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