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Weather guide Sunday 9th to Saturday 15th November 2014

TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Frequent rain or showers, brief drier interludes and windy at times; average to mild temperatures[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some quite cool weather for a time last week, maxima were under 10c for many on Tuesday while most places saw slight frosts and with the first snowfalls of Autumn to highest hills such as Snowdon and Pen y Fan. The coldest was Wednesday night with a widespread air frost inland, coldest being here at Llanwnnen -2.2c and Shodon, Hereforshire -1.9c, but many places reached -1c. Showers mostly affected West Wales (WW), much of the Midlands escaping mostly dry Monday to Wednesday. Pembrokeshire caught a near constant streamer of showers coming down the Irish Sea throughout Tuesday giving totals up to 40mm locally, in contrast stretches of the Cardigan Bay coast had a completely dry and bright day, such is the nature of showery weather patterns! Wednesday was a nice sunny day generally, here at Llanwnnen an estimated 8 hours sunshine made it the sunniest day since September 22nd! Most areas caught some heavy rain during Friday, at Aberporth on the Ceredigion coast 26mm fell between 6am and midday alone.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead:[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Another unsettled week to come, with plentiful showers or longer spells of rain, temperatures mostly around or somewhat above the mid November average (which is 10 or 11c by day), just the chance of a ground frost on a few nights early in the week, but no serious frost issues in the coming week. Rain at times for the Midlands this Saturday afternoon, while for West Wales (WW) the morning rain clears to sunny intervals and a few showers. Maxima quite mild at 11 to 13c with the wind becoming lighter during the afternoon and evening. Rain eventually clears the Midlands Saturday evening to clear spells and just the odd shower over SW Wales, chilly down to 2c locally with grass frost.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]For Sunday a shallow low is over northern Britain this giving showers in places, more especially for Wales, with the Midlands getting a mainly dry day with sunny spells. Highs Sunday 10 to 12c with a moderate SW breeze. Some showers keep going into Sunday night for West Wales (WW) but dry and largely clear for the Midlands, lows around 2 to 4c with local ground frosts. Monday sees more Atlantic fronts ganging up over Ireland these bringing rain to much of Wales by midday and then onto the Midlands during the afternoon. Maxima 10 or 11c and it will be a windy late afternoon/ evening period. A wet night then follows for many. With a low slow moving just west of Ireland Tuesday is another unsettled day, showers, even some longer spells of rain driven by a brisk south wind. Some of the showers could be thundery on Tuesday. A bit milder though at 11 to 13c and so not bad should the sun make an appearance between the showers! Some showers keep going across Wales in particular during Tuesday night which is a mild one no lower than 7 or 8c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]With low pressure close to us again more showers look likely for Wednesday as well, perhaps a better chance of drier interludes by this stage although parts of WW may end up prone to numerous downpours by being under 'shower streets'! Maxima 11 to 13c, perhaps lighter breezes though. Perhaps a brief respite with a drier, brighter interlude for a time Thursday however some of the models are starting to show a nasty secondary low running up the Irish Sea late Thursday, so potentially gales and heavy rain for Thursday evening and night? Low pressure over Ireland on Friday means yet more showers and longer spells of rain and perhaps strong winds, but rather mild at 11 to 13c. With all this rain by later in the week we may have to watch out for localised flooding becoming an issue for certain areas..[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Next weekend the low looks set to transfer across SW UK to the English Channel, little change in the weather though with further showers and wet weather at times, it may be somewhat cooler though with easterly winds developing, so maxima perhaps no better than 10c by Sunday.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=229102:PPVJ89 rain wind pm Mo.png][attachment=229103:ecmt850.072 Rain wind Mo night.png][attachment=229104:PPVL89 milder showers lsr tu.png][attachment=229105:ecmt850.096 milder showers lsr TU.png][attachment=229106:ecmt850.144 potential wet windy late Th.png][attachment=229107:h850t850eu potential,gales heavy rain late TH.png][attachment=229108:ecmt850.192 L SW Eng more showers weekend.png][attachment=229109:h850t850eu cooler unsetttled weekend.png][attachment=229110:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=229111:prcpWest~Midlands daily rains from Mo.png][attachment=229112:prmslWest~Midlands sub 1000 week.png][attachment=229113:t850West~Midlands ave to mild week.png][/font][/color]

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