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Weather guide Monday 13th to Sunday 19th October 2014

TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain at times, very mild but more windy from Thursday[/b][/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]Last weeks highlights:[/b][/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4]Last week was unsettled with near average temperatures, West Wales (WW) in particular had a wet week. Heavy rain and strong winds last Sunday night into Monday gave 25.9mm at Llanwnnen and this was the wettest day since Feb 14th (32.2mm). The cloud and rain lingered well into Monday afteroon across the East Midlands where it was a cool day, reaching just 11 or 12c. Although we were in much cooler air to start the week temperatures were still reaching around average generally though with some pleasant sunny spells between the showers. Thunder was a feature of the showers on many days last week, a twitter friend at St Clears reported thunderstorms each day from Monday to Thursday. Thunderstorms were widespread and quite frequent on Wednesday over West Wales, and a tornado occurred at Alfreton, Derbyshire, one of several to occur across England that day. Wednesday evening and night saw the thunderstorms continuing to affect West Wales, I observed almost continuous lightning, much of it brilliant and vivid during the evening and from various different directions, indeed it was one of the most outstanding electrical displays I have witnessed here! Many parts of WW had over 25mm in the 24 hours to Thursday morning, 31.6mm here being the wettest October day since 2008 (34.3mm 25/10/08). On Friday a torrential shower here at Llanwnnen produced a rainfall rate of 153.6mm/ hour, the highest my automatic weather station has logged in its 2 years, but thankfully only briefly! [/size][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][b]The week ahead[/b][/size][/font][/color]


[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][size=4][size=4]Saturday night for many was foggy with a widespread ground frost, and in a few spots such as Shobdon, Shropshire and Llanwnnen a touch of air frost as it fell marginally sub zero. The fog has been dense and persistent over the Midlands this morning but has largely cleared this midday... Sunday afternoon is fine and quite sunny if rather hazy, temperatures getting up to the average of 13 to 15c and with little wind. Low pressure moves towards southern England from the Bay of Biscay overnight, clouding over this evening and it turns wet across the Midlands by midnight and all but the NW of Wales by dawn Monday. Mostly cloudy with further rain at times through Monday, heavy bursts in places, even a rumble of thunder. A cool and quite windy day, a fresh NE wind and highs only between 10 and 13c. The exception could be Anglesey and Bardsey Island where the rain may not quite reach and temperatures nearer 14c if it remains dry here. Further rain at times, in places, even on Monday night although it should be turning lighter and patchy. This little low hangs around close to the East Anglian coast through Tuesday so a lot of cloud with a little rain or drizzle in places still, especially over the NE Midlands (Notts, Leic), while it should brighten pm over WW. Highs Tuesday 12 to 14c. Clearing skies overnight lead to local ground frost and widespread fog, lows close to 0c in the Marches and Mid Wales. [/size]

[size=4]Changes from mid week as a deep low becomes stuck out west of Ireland, the weather remains generally unsettled with further rain at times but at least it turns a lot milder for the rest of the week with a deep, rather moist SW flow becoming established. This process begins on Wednesday so after a foggy start in places, there will be sunny intervals but it then clouds over afternoon as a trough of low pressure gradually moves NE across SW UK. This brings some spells of rain into much of Wales and the South Midlands by late afternoon or evening. Maxima Wednesday 12 to 14c so not mild just yet! Wednesday night though looks mild and cloudy with rain or drizzle at times, no lower than 9c. A broad warm sector with deep SW flow has arrived by Thursday, so its turning much milder but rather windy. Thursday also sees plenty of cloud although the Midlands brightens afternoon to some sunny intervals, while WW remains mostly cloudy with some light rain and drizzle on and off. Highs Thursday 16 to 18c, best East Midlands. Very mild and breezy with drizzle in places Thursday night no lower than 10 to 12c. [/size]

[size=4]Friday too is rather cloudy with some light rain and drizzle about, the East Midlands more favoured for warm, sunny intervals, and it becomes windy with gale force gusts over WW. Highs Friday well above average at 17 to 19c. Next Friday night may be exceptionally mild for October with many places getting no lower than 14 or 15c! It may be turning more definitely wet across Wales through Friday night but this a long way off...Next weekend the same slow-moving low should have edged to the NW of Scotland, so it is still rather unsettled but very mild and quite windy, a lot of cloud but with a few sunny intervals. Fronts slowly crossing the UK bringing rain at times but highs should be in the mild to very mild 15 to 19c range, with nights still likely to be in double figures...so the central heating stays off![/size]
[size=4][attachment=226894:PPVI89.png][attachment=226895:PPVK89 cloud irdo Tu.png][attachment=226896:h850t850eu L close E little rain esp Mids Tu.png][attachment=226897:ecmt850.096 some rain pm Wed.png][attachment=226898:ecmt850.120 TH FR mild rain places esp WW.png][attachment=226899:h850t850eu v mild windy little rain WW Fr.png][attachment=226900:h850t850eu WEND v mild rain times.png][attachment=226901:ecmt850.168 WEND v mild rain and wind times.png][attachment=226902:prcpWest~Midlands some rain most days.png][attachment=226903:prmslWest~Midlands sub 1010 all week.png][attachment=226904:t850West~Midlands mild from TH.png][attachment=226905:mgram_Birmingham rather unsetteld becomes vm.png][/size][/size][/font][/color]


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Shobdon, one of the few places that managed an air frost Saturday night, is in fact in Herefordshire and not Shropshire as stated

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