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Weather guide Monday 29th September to Sunday 5th October 2014

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry and quite warm (particularly Midlands) with some sunny spells; more unsettled next weekend[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Although another mostly dry week gone, all of us did see a little rain midweek, the light fall on Tuesday 23rd ending a 22 day drought here at Llanwnnen. Rather a lot of cloud at times too last week, for West Wales in particular due to the winds coming from the west for a change, although there were some sunny spells especially early in the week. The Midlands saw the driest, brightest and warmest of the weather. Pershore in Worcestershire topped a rather warm 20c Thursday with sunny intervals while West Wales only managed a drizzly 16 or 17c. Friday was warm more widely over South Wales and the Midlands, with some sunny intervals and 21c 70f reached in a few spots. September is going to end up one of the driest on record, for many places since the exceptionally dry Sept 1959. Here at Llanwnnen, provided it does not rain appreciably in the last few days of the month (unlikely), it will be the[b] driest of any month in my 9 year record[/b] (April 2007 14.4mm to beat) and the [b]driest September on record[/b] too (beating 11mm at nearby Llanybydder in Sept 1986). Currently we have had just 7.7mm while some places have been even drier, Coventry for example has only received 4.8mm. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]We continue in the recurring high pressure pattern into the start of October so plenty more dry (although not completely dry) and mild/ warm weather in the week ahead. As with the past few weeks variable cloud, sunshine amounts hard to guess but we should all get at least one or two reasonably sunny, warm days this week, more especailly over the Midlands, while some other days could remain overcast but mild. Mild once we are into October is anything above 16c really, and to get 20c is certainly warm for the time of the year and as we shall experience on several days this week, especially over the Midlands! With the mild air no risk of frost in the coming week, but October will inevitably see the first widespread ground frosts, at least.. eventually.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Saturday night was very mild many places remaining above 13 or 14c. Variable cloud with some warm sunny spells on Sunday, light winds, maxima feeling very pleasant at 19 to 21c, the odd 22c over the Midlands. Just the chance this warmth sparking a shower over the Midlands late afternoon into this evening. A few heavy showers overnight too affecting the Midlands but most parts stay dry, and where skies clear fog patches forming, lows 9 to 12c generally. A weak showery trough crossing the Midlands and slowly moving away NE on Monday, most places have another warm and dry day with sunny spells, but the odd heavy shower scattered about, perhaps with an isolated thunderstorm, affecting the Midlands in particular. Maxima on Monday between 19 and 21c so well above the average for the very end of September (15 to 17c) and only gentle breezes. Again with clearing skies, fog patches form locally Monday night. Relatively high pressure over southern Britain on Tuesday so another generally dry day with some sunshine, best of this for the Midlands, as West Wales (WW) is likely to see a cloudier afternoon as the SW breeze freshens. Highs Tuesday 20c Midlands and 16 to 18c WW. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A series of weakening Atlantic fronts cross the UK on Wednesday, these expected to bring some light rain and drizzle to Wales in particular, but most of the Midlands getting another dry if rather cloudy day, just the odd light shower for the West Midlands. Highs Wednesday ranging from a warm 20c over the brighter East Midlands to 15c over damp Snowdonia. Some clear spells may result in a foggy dawn in places Thursday especially over Wales and the Marches. High pressure then rapidly builds over England and Wales on Thursday killing off the dying fronts left within it. Some vestigial areas of cloud then, but with sunny spells eventually breaking through and pleasantly mild at 16 to 19c. With high pressure still in place over the SE Friday should be generally dry again too, quite warm with sunny spells for the Midlands, 20c in places here, but perhaps more cloud and only fleeting sunny intervals for WW with a freshening SW breeze here too, so maxima restricted to, a still though mild, 16 to 18c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure does look set to drop next weekend and so we should expect the fine dry weather to break down, all of us seeing some rain or showers then but still some dry spells and no washout. A changeable and cooler weekend then should sum it up, although the Midlands may hold onto warmth for Saturday, so the possibilty of another 20c here. As we move into the second week of October the weather looks like turning more decidedly unsettled and at times wet, although it should still be warm sometimes![/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=225693:PPVG89 warm m dry odd sh.png][attachment=225694:PPVJ89 dry bright warm Mids.png][attachment=225695:h850t850eu wk fronts little rain WE.png][attachment=225696:ecmt850.096 dry bright Th.png][attachment=225697:ecmt850.168 changeable weekend.png][attachment=225698:h850t850eu changeable cooling wend.png][attachment=225699:prcpWarwickshire Mids showers Mo breakdown WEND.png][attachment=225700:prmslWarwickshire h but falls WEND.png][attachment=225701:t850Warwickshire warm week cooler by SU.png][attachment=225702:mgram_Birmingham mild m dry week.png][/font][/color]
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