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Weather guide Monday 22nd to Sunday 28th September 2014

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TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry and quite warm with sunny spells, especially for South Wales and the Midlands, cloudier perhaps a little rain affecting NW Wales at times[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Highlights of last week:[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A generally dry and warm week gone. West Wales was favoured for sunshine and warmth last week due to the easterly winds, with cloudier weather affecting the Midlands in particular at times and so restricting temperatures here. A very warm, rather sultry Thursday saw the highest readings of the week, and for many places since early August, with Whitechurch, Pembrokeshire best at 25.7c, then Llanelli 25.4c, Llanwnnen 24.4c, Aberporth 24.2c, Pembrey 24.1c, Wellesbourne 23.7c, Trawscoed and Pershore 23.3c, Coventry and Church Lawford 23.0c. Warm nights too for much of last week and on Thursday night Mumbles, Milford Haven and Trawsgoed did not fall below 17c which is more like the average daytime figure for September![/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Bar a few showers much of the week remained dry until scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday gave localised torrential falls but again some areas missed these completely. Parts of Ceredigion have had no measurable rain at all for the first 20 days of September including Trawsgoed and Llanwnnen and the countryside is now hard and dry, the few spits of drizzle not enough register in the gauge. The legacy of storms over the south on Thursday night was a cloudy, murky cooler Friday especially for the Midlands where for many it only rose a couple of degrees from the overnight values to just 17c or so. Saturday too a cooler cloudier day for most, although the Carmarthenshire coast was quite bright and warm still. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead: [/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Amazingly the predominantly dry weather looks set to continue for the rest of the month - could the Lampeter area have a completely rainless month for the first time since February 1986? Me thinks some drizzly weak fronts this week will prevent this..Problems with some of the models this weekend means less data to go on - but we will try anyway and the general theme is for plenty of dry and at times rather warm weather, North and West Wales having the most chance of dampness at times from late Tuesday onwards, but never particularly wet even here. A weak cold front has shifted the cloud leaving a lovely sunny Sunday, just some patchy Cumulus this afternoon. Temperatures just above average reaching 17 to 19c. Clear, calm and cool tonight, 2c in the Marches and mid Wales is close to a grass frost. High pressure centred over SW England on Monday so another lovely day, mostly sunny and fairly warm highs 18 to 20c, even a 21c here and there. Clear periods but not quite as cool for Monday night. High pressure holds over the south on Tuesday but with a weakening cold front arriving into NW Wales later. A dry bright but rather breezy day for South Wales and the Midlands but cloudier for NW Wales and later Cardigan Bay with a little light rain or drizzle in places but it should be dying out as it moves SE into the high. Maxima a rather warm 20c for parts of the Midlands on Tuesday but 16 or 17c for Snowdonia where it may well turn out a cloudy and damp afternoon. This front means a more cloudy night so milder no lower than 9 or 10c and the odd spit of drizzle in places.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Ridging into the SW on Wednesday keeps it generally dry and bright, however a warm front is crossing northern Britain and so rather cloudy for NW Wales perhaps a smidgen of rain or drizzle from midday onwards. The westerly wind freshens through the afternoon, highs ranging from 19c over the Midlands to 15c for NW Wales if cloudy and damp, so feeling chilly here on Wednesday. We are in a warm sector for Wednesday night, so cloudy, mild and breezy, drizzle in places, chiefly for Welsh hills, temperatures no lower than 12c. High pressure still close enough to our SW Thursday to kill off the rain fronts passing to our north, perhaps a lot of cloud for Cardigan Bay and NW Wales, the odd spit of drizzle, but for South Wales and the Midlands it brightens to sunny spells afternoon and becomes warm at 20 to 22c, compared with 17c for NW Wales. Quite a fresh west to NW breeze Thursday though. Again on Friday high pressure should be close enough by to weaken any fronts that may reach southern Britain, so the generally dry but rather breezy theme continues and where it brightens 20 or 21c is achievable, although once more NW Wales likely to be cooler and cloudier still with the west winds blowing. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure look set to build over the UK again next weekend so apart from the odd shower it looks dry and bright with temperatures at least attaining the average for the end of September (16 to 18c) so feeling pleasant in any sunshine.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=225253:PPVG89 (1) sunny r w Mo.png][attachment=225254:PPVJ89 dry bright esp Mids Tu little rain pm NW Wales.png][attachment=225255:PPVM89 m dry bright We.png][attachment=225256:PPVO89 TH m dry bright warm Mids.png][attachment=225257:h850t850eu m dry weekend too.png][attachment=225258:prcpWest~Midlands m dry week.png][attachment=225259:t850West~Midlands r warm week overall.png][attachment=225260:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
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Fronts on Tuesday night fairly active gave rain to most places, 5.1mm here first rain for over 3 weeks!

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