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Weather guide Monday 15th to Sunday 21st September 2014

TonyH

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[b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm but breezy with sunny spells; risk of showers Thursday to Saturday[/b][/font][/color]
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[b]Highlights of the past week:[/b][/font][/color]
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The rather warm, very dry September continues, almost half way and some places yet to receive any measurable rain and a with a virtually bone dry week gone everywhere bar dew deposits in automatic rain gauges! The Midlands joined in with plentiful sunshine too last week, although the week ended with more cloud especially here again. The total 62 hours sunshine in the past 7 days here at Llanwnnen is most impressive for September and its rapidly reducing day lengths. Many days inland saw temperatures into the low 20's celsius but with no spectacular Autumn warmth, some of the highest readings being - Tuesday Hereford 22.2c and Coventry 22.1c, Wednesday Llanwnnen 22.6c, Trawsgoed 22.4c and Hereford 22.2c, then Wellesbourne, Warks 22.2c Friday. However nights were often cool with clear periods, lowest readings being last Sunday - Sennybridge 1.7c, Llanwnnen 1.9c, Trawsgoed 2.2c while here at Llanwnnen each night until Friday fell below 6c (average September minimum 9c) although we narrowly escaped grass frost.[/font][/color]
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[b]The week ahead:[/b][/font][/color]
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Plenty more dry and warm weather in week ahead so we are being spoilt this month, just the threat of a few showers, more especially later in the week. Sunday morning has been quite cloudy over the Midlands but bright for us in West Wales (WW). Reasonable temperatures this afternoon as the sun breaks through for all areas, maxima 18 to 21c but breezy. Just the chance of a light shower later for the North Midlands. Temperatures holding up above 10c tonight with a bit of a breeze keeping up, in fact during the week ahead the milder nights should be noticeable. Our Scandinavian high losing its grip this week with the ever- present low west of Iberia attempting to become more of an influence mid to late week threatening more unsettled conditions. Quite a keen easterly breeze on Monday, variable cloud but sunny intervals for most places, some weak fronts crossing northern Britain which may spark off a few afternoon showers for the North Midlands, but an essentially dry day with near average temperatures at 18 to 21c. Clear periods developing on Monday night, a cooler one down to 6c in parts of the inland west. Tuesday sees a somewhat warmer ESE flow off the Continent, some decent sunny breaks and warm maxima between 20 and 22c, but with quite a fresh wind developing especially later over South Wales. Dry but breezy overnight, clear periods with lows around 10c 50f.[/font][/color]
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The low close to Portugal and NW Spain getting its act together mid week and in so doing drags warm and quite humid air our way, but with an attendant increasing threat of showers. Wednesday however should be another dry day with decent sunny spells, especially over WW, warm again highs of 20 to 23c but still that keen east to SE breeze. The low never really properly dominates our weather this week though, as we are just too distant and escape any truly wet weather. There will be some showers developing on Thursday, over the south of our regions in particular, but few and far between these, some spots though catching a late sharp downpour. A touch warmer again for Thursday given pleasant sunny spells highs between 21 and 24c, best in the south. A mild night follows no lower than 12 or 13c generally.[/font][/color]
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Friday and still a warm airflow from the east or SE seems likely, earlier model charts were suggesting some very warm and potentially thundery weather by this stage, however the recent trends are less unsettled for the end of the week but without the heat arriving. Friday then, perhaps a greater shower risk, with an outside chance of thunder for a few, but the showers should be well scattered and with pleasant sunny spells once more it reaches a warm 20 to 24c, best over South Wales and the South Midlands. Less of a breeze too by Friday. On Saturday too a threat of showery rain over SW UK, so for our regions this means SW Wales and Gloucestershire most at risk of some showers on Saturday, but a new high is moving into Scotland drying things out. Sunday looks a dry, fine day with the high over us, the weekend seeing a continuation of the warmth, highs 20 to 23c so hopes then of a late Season trip to the beach! [/font][/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
[color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224559:PPVG89 m dry ave some si.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224560:PPVJ89 Tu bright warmer breezy.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224561:PPVL89 we dry warm bright breezy.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224562:ecmt850.072 warms u mid week m dry bright breezy.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224563:PPVO89 Th warm sun ints odd shower breezy.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224564:ecmt850.120 TH warm few showers south.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224565:ecmt850.168 H weekend Scot becoming dry again.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224566:h850t850eu m dry warm bright weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224567:prcpWest~Midlands few showers but reasonably dry week.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224568:prmslWest~Midlands never turns truly un settled.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224569:t850West~Midlands warm from mid week.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=224570:mgram_Birmingham perhaps unsettled from Fr.png][/font][/color][/font][/color]

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