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Weather guide Monday 8th to Sunday 14th September 2014

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TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Dry and quite warm, sunniest for West Wales, cloudier at times Midlands; some cool nights[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights:[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]At last some warmer conditions for the start of September which may have been better appreciated during the second half of August! Last Monday night was a chilly one, Llanwnnen registering lower than any of the official UK weather stations with a minimum temperature of 1.8c and a touch of grass frost around dawn Tuesday. Trawsgoed also in Ceredigion got down to 3.9c as the coolest official place. West Wales (WW) has had a fairly sunny warm week, while the Midlands, although quite warm, has often been rather cloudy with limited sunshine. In spite of a lot of cloud, Wednesday was a warm day with 21 to 23c reached widely, Whitechurch in Pembrokeshire the warmest place in the UK at 23.8c, and with 23.5c in our Ceredigion garden. Thursday was a warm, sunny one over Wales, while much of the Midlands clung on to the cloud, high spots Whitechurch 23.7c, Valley and Llanwnnen 22.6c, Pershore 22.3c and Trawsgoed 22.1c. Almost unbroken sushine gave 12 hours at Llanwnnen and the sunniest day since July. Friday was similar, sunnier and warmer for West Wales again. Saturday was a cooler, fresher day for Cardigan Bay and North Wales with the warmth holding on further south and east, chilly again last (Sat) night for Wales and the Marches, Trawsgoed down to 1.9c. A dry start to September, some places have had no measurable rain to date including here at Llanwnnen.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead:[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]High pressure dominates again so another mostly dry week, some troublesome cloud again, but hopeful that more of us see decent amounts of sunshine, although again with an easterly so West Wales better situated for more prolonged sunshine and warmth. Sunday afternoon sees decent sunny spells for all, near average highs between 16 and 20c, a dry day too if breezy. Clear periods tonight which is a cool one down to 4 to 7c widely and a ground frost for some spots of inland Wales and the Marches where locally it dips to just 1c. Monday is another dry bright day, a little warmer highs 18 to 21c, best over South Wales and the South Midlands, all of us getting decent sunny spells with only patchy Cumulus clouds. Monday night [b]rather[/b] chilly again with clearing skies, coldest over mid Wales and the Marches, 1c with grass frost locally here, more generally at 5 to 8c. High pressure slap bang over the UK on Tuesday, another nice day, decent sunny spells, sunny even for West Wales, highs a warm 20 to 22c inland, with some cooling sea breezes. Just the chance a NE breeze drags more in the way of cloud and cooler air across the eastern Midlands afternoon though, and if so no higher than 18c here. Clear spells overnight Tuesday but not as cool, lows generally 5 to 9c. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]High pressure moves into the North Sea Wednesday, but another dry and quite warm day with sunny spells, maxmima 19 to 21c. A keener easterly breeze on Wednesday so areas of North Sea cloud may affect parts of the Midlands more widely and so perhaps a disappointing day here? High pressure still close by to our NNE on Thursday which is yet another dry, and for the west fine and quite warm day, but a distinct east breeze may make it cooler over the Midlands in particular. We should be seeing sunny spells again Thursday especially over WW, so warmest at 20c for bright Cardigan Bay with 17c for the East Midlands if cloudy. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A strong ridge from Scandinavia holds an Atlantic low at bay to the SW of Ireland through Friday and quite likely the whole weekend too. This means the dry spell continues, the best of the warm sunny spells over West Wales while the Midlands may be plagued by North Sea cloud at times given the drift of air is from the east. Given some decent sunshine though 21c is quite achievable and respectably warm for mid September (average max 17 to 19c), while nights are around average, lows in the 6 to 11c bracket. An outside chance that a trough does erode the blocking ridge by Sunday so cannot rule out some showers by this stage but a dry week does seem in prospect. [/font][/color]
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