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Weather guide Monday 4th to Sunday 10th August 2014

TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable but often quite warm; potentially very wet late Thursday/ Friday[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Reasonably warm for much of last week, the Midlands being most consistently warm, some places here getting above 23c each day up to Friday. Mostly dry still to the end of July, although parts of the Midlands, especially Warwickshire, caught thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon (31st July). Church Lawford near Rugby had 15mm most of which fell in just one hour in the late afternoon, while Hatton, Warwick had 21.5mm from these afternoon storms. West Wales (WW) cooled down by the end of the week and it was wet in many places too on Friday into Saturday, some spots having more rain in 24 hours than in the whole of July! In the 24 hours to 0600 Saturday Aberporth had 44.6mm, Trawsgoed 36mm and Pembrey Sands 31mm. Some spectacular thunderstorms over the Midlands on Saturday, Evesham hard hit with 2cm hail and torrential rain.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]July 2014 was a warm and sunny month, and most places were dry too, although locally thunderstorms made it wetter than average. Much of West Wales had a very dry month with less than half the average rainfall. Some monthly totals:[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Mona, Anglesey 56.2mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Trawsgoed 45mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanwnnen 34.6mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pembrey Sands 25.6mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanelli 37.1mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coleshill 41.2mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coventry, Bablake School 53mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Church Lawford 41.6mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Long Lawford 33.4mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pershore, Worc 69.6mm[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The rather deep low that gave all the rain and showers on Saturday is now over Scotland and moving away but with a rather tight circulation about it making for quite a windy day. Sunday afternoon then bright and breezy, sunny spells but some showers for North Wales in particular. Highs a pleasant 20 to 22c although tempered by the fresh SW wind, cooler though for showery Snowdonia. Bar the odd shower for West Wales WW a dry night with cool temperatures, lows around 10c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Relatively high pressure close to southern Britain on Monday as our low edges off north leaving just the odd scattered shower, but a mostly dry day with sunny spells, highs around the early August average once more at 20 to 23c. A rather cool and clear night follows down to 8c in places. A front makes slow progress in from the west during Tuesday bringing showery rain to WW by midday and onto the Midlands by late afternoon. Warm sunny spells ahead of the showery rain, 24c for the East Midlands but nearer 21c for WW. Quite light winds on both Monday and Tuesday. The rather nondescript pressure pattern lasts into Wednesday too, although lows are gathering west of Ireland. One of those 'iffy' days - there will be some pleasant sunny breaks but showers, even longer spells of rain never far away and so you would be fortunate to escape dry! Temperatures not too bad again in the 20 to 24c range, so feeling pretty warm in the sunny intervals. [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Nights from mid week on should be mild, say in the 12 to 15c bracket. Although there will be some fine and warm interludes from mid week, we are increasingly seeing potential for wet weather from time to time. Time being of the essence, as at this forecasting range just where and when then rain will fall is open to speculation. Thursday and we may just get away with a generally dry and warm day with sunny spells, maxima between 21 to 25c as the synoptic charts appear rather featureless and slack. Of course we should not rule out a few sharp showers for Thursday afternoon being set off by the warm sunshine! Good model agreement that a low incorporating some warm, humid air will cross southern Britain on Thursday night and Friday, so this bringing some very heavy and perhaps thundery rain where it decides to track - with Wales at the moment seemingly favourite for the wettest weather going into Friday. The prospect of some 6 to 12 hours of heavy rain then for certain areas going into Friday, the East Midlands perhaps not seeing too much rain and given some brightness a humid 24c possible here, compared to a cool 18c for cloudy, damper parts of Wales. Where this low hits a good 25mm rain is likely so something to be aware of given flooding potential.. proviso: this low may decide to arrive early and spoil Thursday afternoon for WW! [/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Next weekend and low pressure never far away so always the threat of showers or longer spells of rain, some areas perhaps not so wet however as we may see temporary ridging. Temperatures well up to average, even on the warm side reaching between 20 and 25c, there should also be some sunny spells.[/font][/color]

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