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Weather guide Monday 21st to Sunday 27th July 2014

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TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Very warm and mostly dry with sunny spells; increasing chance of thundery showers from mid week.[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Again, as has been the case with much of this rather fine Summer to date, there was plenty of reasonably dry weather during the past 7 days, Llanwnnen one of the drier areas having just 8mm rain in total last week. The much heralded 'Spanish Plume' arrived with vivid lightning displays and thunderstorms on Thursday night/ early Friday, however these did not produce much rain except very locally. Thursday and Friday saw the highest temperatures of 2014 so far for most places, highest temperature readings of the week include 26.3c Llanwnnen and 26.7c Pershore on Thursday, 28.4c Coleshill, 28.4c Coventry, 27.9c Church Lawford and 26.2c Trawsgoed on Friday. These temperatures well down though on the 32.3c (90f) recorded at Gravesend, Kent on Friday, which was the hottest of the year so far for the UK. Nights were warm and sticky too to end the week, on Thursday night the temperature fell to just 17.8c here at Llanwnnen, some 7c above average minima for July, and the warmest night recorded here in the past 9 years. Some other parts of Wales were even warmer with 19.5c Pembrey Sands and 19.1c Trawscoed being the 'lows'. Widespread thunderstorms over the Midlands on Saturday, a few for parts of Wales too. These gave locally very heavy falls of rain and with hail in places, and caused flooding in such places as Gloucester, Shropshire, Nuneaton and Coventry. Around an inch (25mm) of rain falling in one hour in some places, Westonbirt, Gloucestershire the wettest spot having 79mm (over 3 inches) rain on Saturday! These storms did herald cooler weather on Saturday when Cardigan Bay coasts did not exceed 19c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The weather has not though changed to an unsettled pattern as yet, and this coming week sees the return of fine and very warm, perhaps even quite hot conditions, although there will be a few showers or thunderstorms about too in places on some days especially towards the end of the week. Sunday, and the west is in cooler air while the warm, thundery air is never far from the Midlands. Sunny intervals today, so warming up nicely, some heavy showers and thunderstorms scattered about this afternoon, localised and mostly only affecting to the east of Birmingham, but again, locally will cause flooding. For West Wales (WW) we should escape with a largely dry day, just the slim chance of a shower here. Highs on Sunday 21 to 24c, so rather warm, but fresher feeling than of late, except over the East Midlands where it is still quite humid.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Monday sees a ridge of high pressure building in from the SW, so a mainly dry day, just the outside chance of a light shower. Sunny spells and maxima a warm 22 to 25c, cooler for many coasts where nearer 20c. A dry night with clear spells and lows between 9 and 13c so comfortable. High pressure over Scandinavia from Tuesday with a feed of very warm easterly winds from Europe. Relatively high pressure over the UK again on Tuesday itself, although a weak front bringing areas of cloud and a few afternoon showers to the Midlands in particular, for most places another dry warm day though, highs widely 23 to 26c even along Cardigan Bay, the NE breeze more noticeable over the East Midlands. Wednesday is similarly fine day with further spells of sunshine, sunny even for the west. A very warm day, maxima pushing 80f reaching 25 to 27c, perhaps West Wales warmest due to the easterly breeze and hence the air has travelled furthest over land to reach here. Just the odd shower or thunderstorm being set off by the heat later in the afternoon or during the evening over the Welsh hills. A mild largely dry night follows, lows mostly 12 to 15c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The very warm Continental ENE flow continues for Thursday and Friday too, further generally dry days with sunny periods and highs in the 24 to 28c range, some coasts pleasantly cooler with sea breezes. Dry for the most part, but with a scattering of sharp showers or thunderstorms getting going for the afternoons and evenings. A greater chance of seeing a thunderstorm on Thursday or Friday it has to be said, even the hint of a thundery plume showing on some models come Friday. Naturally model differences for as far in the future as next weekend, some showing a continuation of the mostly dry and very warm weather (ECM) whilst others eventually turn it cooler and more unsettled (GFS). However Saturday at least should see a continuation of the very warm weather with scattered thundery showers.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=219599:PPVG89 (1) m dry warm MO.png][attachment=219600:PPVJ89 m dry warm poss sh Mids TU.png][attachment=219601:ecmt850.072 VW m dry TU WE.png][attachment=219602:PPVL89 dry VW WE.png][attachment=219603:PPVO89 VW few thundery sh TH.png][attachment=219604:h850t850eu VW few thundery sh TH.png][attachment=219605:ecmt850.144 some storms TH FR.png][attachment=219606:h850t850eu heat thunder chances FR.png][attachment=219607:ecmt850.168 m dry VW weekend.png][attachment=219608:h850t850eu warm more unsettled weekend.png][attachment=219609:prmslWarwickshire fine toi mid week then thundery chances.png][attachment=219610:t850Warwickshire warm to hot week.png][attachment=219611:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
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