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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 15 Issued 24 June

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J10

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So the gates open tomorrow, and what does the last minute weather models show us. We pretty much know that tomorrow will be dry and bright, but the big question is, how much rain will the Low pressure bring to Glastonbury over the subsequent days.

We have passed the point of overall ratings, so I will not be showing that any more in favour of daily summaries and forecasts.

Moving very swiftly onto the daily forecasts.

[b]Wednesday 25th June [/b]

With so much agreement on the overall position, just the one synoptic chart, High Pressure has finally weakened over the UK, with pressure over 1016mb for Southern areas, a mostly dry day is in the offing if rather cloudy, the odd shower cannot be ruled out, but dry or mostly dry, Temps edging into the low 20s, perhaps a bit more if the sun pops out.

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217201] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217206]
[b]Thursday 26th[/b]

For Thursday, there is low pressure (1012mb around Ireland) moving eastwards during the day with fronts ahead of it towards the South West of the UK. These fronts are suggested to make slow progress eastwards towards Glastonbury from the west. As ever there are timing issues,

UKMO suggests that a mostly dry daytime indeed with some sunny intervals for a time during the afternoon, with some patchy rain arriving around 7pm and with periods of rain continuing through the evening and through to Friday.

GFS 12Hz brings the rain in sooner, for mid afternoon and clearing away overnight, most of the rain is likely to be patchy in nature. [GFS 06Hz was similar in timing, but had heavier rain associated with it].

ECM suggest rainfall edging in for the evening, similar to UKMO.

Temps are likely be very decent into the low 20s for Thursday afternoon.

[b]GFS[/b]

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217193] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217200] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217205]
[b]UKMO / ECM[/b]

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217212] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217222]

[b]Friday 27th[/b]

Synoptically better agreement for Friday, the Low Pressure is set to be to the South West of the UK around Midnight and move Eastwards by midday with the Low Pressure bang on top of Southern England (1010mb), this is understandably likely to give unsettled weather for these areas.

By looking at the GFS charts below, there is heavy to moderate rain over much of Southern England on Friday.

The UKMO is very similar with showers / outbreaks of rain likely through Friday and this could well cause some problems with some mud.

ECM goes for some rain, the heaviest likely to be for the late afternoon/early evening period.

[b]GFS[/b]
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217194] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217199] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217204]

[b]UKMO/ECM[/b]
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217215] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217218]
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217211] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217221]

[b]Saturday 28th[/b]

Low Pressure is set to remain for southern Britain on Saturday (1012mb), even though the core of the Low pressure (1008mb) moves away into Southern Scandinavia during the day. As a result staying rather unsettled once again.

It seems likely that there will be a decent start to the day, however into the afternoon, showery outbreaks of rain are expected and these may be heavy, with the chance of some thunder, although the showers may be hit or miss There is also the possibility of more organised period of rain edging in from the South West later. To end on a positive note the rain should fade away overnight and it should turn drier. Temps are likely to be in the high teens and feeling pleasant if there are some sunny intervals between the showers.

[b]GFS[/b]
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217195] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217198] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217203]

[b]UKMO/ECM[/b]
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217214] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217217]
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217210] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217220]

[b]Sunday 29th[/b]

Pressure is slowly set to build from the west during the day, but this is slower than was even indicated yesterday. On the ground this is likely to mean a day of sunshine and showers, however as things stand with more of an emphasis on sunshine than showers. Temperatures again likely to be in the high teens.

[b]GFS[/b]
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217202] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217196] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217197]

[b]UKMO / ECM[/b]
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217213] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217216]
[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217209] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:217223]

[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:217208] [attachment=217226:Ensemble Pressure 24 June 06Hz.png]
[attachment=217224:Ensemble Rainfall 24 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=217225:Ensemble Pressure 24 June 12Hz.png]
Both sets of ensembles sees pressure drop during the festival to around 1010mb by Friday, the 06Hz sees a slight rise by the end of the festival, the 12Hz keeps it at 1010mb until Friday.
Both sets of ensembles go for persistent daytime rainfall for Friday through to Sunday.

[b]Summary[/b]

The theme yesterday of a dry Thursday looks most mostly correct, although some rain is possible for the evening. The trend for the weeknd continues to worsen.

Friday and Saturday are both looking potentially troublesome in terms of rainfall, enough to quite possible cause mud issues, and depending on the luck with the showers, this may range to minor amounts of mud, and moderate amounts of mud. Perhaps then a bit better on Saturday.

Sunglasses and sun cream may be needed for the festival, to start and between the showers for the weekend, but wellies look an absolute must, they may not be needed, but I would suggest they probably would. It is a good job, I have stopped the ratings, as it would have bee worse than the 6 of yesterday.,

The final blog will be tomorrow, and with further updates on the main thread, please keep in touch on there and don't be afraid to post photos on the main thread, of yourselves at Glastonbury and the weather conditions on site, even to prove me wrong, if the weather turns out better than I fear, I hope that happens anyway.

[b][b]Links [/b][/b]
Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2992773"]http://forum.netweat...2014/?p=2992773[/url]
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