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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 12 Issued 19 June

J10

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This is the 12th blog for the Glastonbury festival.

Previous Runs
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

Generally looking mostly settled with High Pressure to the South West, and a ridge of High pressure over the rest of the UK on this Sunday.
[attachment=216719:ECM 19 June to 22 June 00Hz.png]

The remainder of the forecast will cover only the festival period itself.

[b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

[b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
For Wednesday the 25th June, High Pressure staying around the UK with winds from the North East so not hot by any means, but dry for the South West, similar with Friday with High pressure on the scene, mostly settled and dry, by Sunday the high pressure moves away to the north allowing low pressure to push in from the south, with some moderate to heavy rainfall for late Sunday.

[attachment=216726:GFS 19 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216728:GFS 19 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216727:GFS 19 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]

[b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
For the 12Hz run High Pressure staying for South and Western parts of the UK for the start of the festival, so mostly dry, the pressure slowly tending to weaken as moves to Friday but mostly dry at this stage however by the weekend low pressure edging in from the west, with some moderate rainfall at times, et at times, but no absolute washout.

[attachment=216729:GFS 19 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216737:GFS 19 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216736:GFS 19 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]
So both GFS runs have a dry start to the festival through till Friday, both with some rainfall expected over the weekend, not as good as some previous runs, but no washout in either case.

[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]

[b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
Pressure around 1020 until the Friday, dropping back to just above 1015mb by the Sunday. Rainfall ensembles are mostly dry for Wednesday to Friday, but an increasing number of damp / wet runs over the festival weekend. Temps starting at around 5c @850HPA rising to around 7c, by the Sunday.
[attachment=216720:Ensemble Temps 19 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216721:Ensemble Rainfall 19 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216722:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 06Hz.png]

[b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
Pressure around 1020 until the Friday, dropping back to just below 1020mb by the Sunday. Rainfall ensembles are mostly dry for Wednesday to Friday, but an increasing number of damp runs over the festival weekend. Temps starting at around 7c @850HPA and staying there.
[attachment=216740:Ensemble Temps 19 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216741:Ensemble Pressure 19 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216742:Ensemble Rainfall 19 June 12Hz.png]

The 12Hz runs are a bit better than the 06Hz ensembles.
[b]ECM / UKMO [/b]

[b]ECM 00Hz[/b]
By Wednesday, the High Pressure has leaked away with no dominant pressure over the UK, and Low Pressure to the north West of the UK, this edges across the UK on Thursday and Friday brining some rain, over the weekend a South West flow with High pressure ridging in souther areas, so possibly quite warm with maybe a little dampness, but no heavy rain likely.
[attachment=216718:ECM 19 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216717:ECM 19 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216716:ECM 19 June to 29 June 00Hz.png]

The ensembles are slightly better than the op run to start with High Pressure to the south west, however for both the 27th and 29th runs, the the ensembles runs are worse than the op run with lower pressure for the UK.
[attachment=216744:ECM Ens 19 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216743:ECM Ens 19 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216745:ECM Ens 19 June to 29 June 00Hz.png]

[b]ECM 12Hz[/b]

By Wednesday, the High Pressure has leaked away with no dominant pressure over the UK, and Low Pressure to the north West of the UK, this edges across the UK on Thursday and Friday brining some rain and there is also a possibility of some rain to start on Saturday but turning drier later over the weekend with High pressure ridging back up from the South West.

[attachment=216748:ECM 19 June to 25 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216747:ECM 19 June to 27 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216746:ECM 19 June to 29 June 12Hz.png]

[b]UKMO[/b]

High Pressure over the UK to start the festival according to the UKMO.
[attachment=216723:UKMO From 19 June to 25 June 12Hz.gif]

[b]NOAA[/b]

Neutral pressure over western UK, with an upper trough to the east of the UK.
[attachment=216739:500 HPA 18 June.gif]
[b]Summary[/b]

[b]Positives[/b]
UKMO run shows a settled start to the festival
GFS / GEFS Ensembles suggest a dry settled start to the festival
[b]Neutral[/b]
NOAA has neutral upper pressure for western areas.
[b]Negatives[/b]
GFS / GFS Ensembles has things turning a little bit more unsettled over the weekend with some rain
ECM takes thing rather unsettled to start the festival.
ECM Ensembles keep a rather unsettled theme for the festival weekend as well.

Overall a mixed set of charts today and a slight worsening of the score to 5.5. But no real washout charts in the offing.

[b]Links [/b]
Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]

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