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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 11 Issued 18 June

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J10

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This is the 11th blog for the Glastonbury festival.

[b]Previous Runs[/b]
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath

[attachment=216675:Trendline to 17 June.JPG]

After the ominous charts on Monday 16th, a lot better charts yesterday, resulting in a better rating, will today continue the trend.

[b]GFS Operational runs[/b]

[b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
High Pressure centred to the West UK west on the 22nd, this builds over the UK to start next week, then moves back South Westwards, but still with High Pressure over the UK to start the festival (25th). This slowly weakens by the Friday allowing lower pressure to the North west of the UK, looking dry for Glastonbury though. Low Pressure tries to edge in over the weekend, but High Pressure to the South West of the UK, should keep things dry for Glastonbury.

[attachment=216639:GFS 18 June to 22 June 06Hz.JPG]
[attachment=216637:GFS 18 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216634:GFS 18 June to 27 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=216633:GFS 18 June to 29 June 06Hz.JPG]

[b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
High Pressure centred to the West UK west on the 22nd, this builds over the UK to start next week, then moves back South Westwards, but still with High Pressure over the UK to start the festival (25th) and a bit stronger on this run compared to the 06Hz. This slowly weakens by the Friday allowing lower pressure to the North west of the UK, looking mostly dry for Glastonbury though. Low Pressure tries to edge in over the weekend from the north, but it could stay dry for Glastonbury.

[attachment=216638:GFS 18 June to 22 June 12Hz.JPG]
[attachment=216636:GFS 18 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216635:GFS 18 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG] [attachment=216632:GFS 18 June to 29 June 12Hz.JPG]

Overall dry to start the festival, with an increased risk of some rain over the weekend, but nothing significant and Glastonbury may well stay dry if GFS is correct.

[b]GFS Ensembles[/b]
[b]06[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
Pressure remaining around 1020mb or slightly above for the duration of the festival. The ensembles although not totally dry are pretty dry from now until the end of the festival. Average temps around around 5c @850HPa for the start of the festival, rising back to around 8c by the end.

[attachment=216659:Ensemble Rainfall 18 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216660:Ensemble Pressire 18 June 06Hz.png] [attachment=216661:Ensemble Temps 18 June 06Hz.png]

[b]12[/b][b]Hz run[/b]
Pressure rising back to around 1030mb early next week, before dropping back to around 1025mb to start the festival and slightly below 1020mb to end the festival. The rainfall ensembles are pretty dry to start the festival but a few are going for some moderate rainfall over the weekend. Average temps around around 8c @850HPa for the duration of the festival.

[attachment=216656:Ensemble Temps 18 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216657:Ensemble Rainfall 18 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216658:Ensemble Pressure 18 June 12Hz.png]

[b]ECM / UKMO [/b]

[b]ECM 00Hz[/b]

High Pressure to the South West of the UK on the 22nd, total agreement with ensembles run (not shown). The operational run goes for Low Pressure to nudge in from the North West by Wednesday the 25th, with low pressure over UK by the Friday 27th with cool NW and winds and the probability of some moderate showery rainfall for Glastonbury. The ECM Ensembles keeps decent pressure until the 25th but reduces it by the 27trh,with Pressure down to around 1016mb.

[attachment=216670:ECM 18 June to 22 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216669:ECM 18 June to 25 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216668:ECM 18 June to 27 June 00Hz.png]
[attachment=216665:ECM Ens 18 June to 27 June 00Hz.png] [attachment=216666:ECM Ens 18 June to 25 June 00Hz.png]

[b]ECM 12Hz[/b]

High Pressure to the South West of the UK on the 22nd, The operational run is unsettled by the start of the festival with weak Low Pressure over the UK, with again Low Pressure pushing west over the UK by Friday. Winds from the NW, with some moderate rain possibly for Glastonbury however the LP again centred further north so South Western areas not as wet as areas furth north.
[attachment=216678:ECM 18 June to 22 June 12Hz b.png] [attachment=216677:ECM 18 June to 25 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216676:ECM 18 June to 27 June 12Hz.png]
[b]UKMO[/b]

These runs only go to around the 24th June, but High Pressure ridging over the UK on both runs.
[attachment=216662:UKMO 18 June to 24 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216663:UKMO 18 June to 22 June 12Hz.png] [attachment=216664:UKMO 18 June to 22 June 00Hz.png]

[b]NOAA[/b]
Both charts have an upper ridge close to the west of the UK, but not as dominant as was the case a few days ago.
[attachment=216671:500 HPA 17 June.gif] [attachment=216672:500 HPA 17 June -10day.gif]

[b]Summary[/b]

[b]Positives[/b]
Decent GFS runs today, looking mostly dry for Glastonbury for the festival.
UKMO looking positive in keeping HP for the start of the festival.
06Hz Ensembles looking pretty dry
[b]Neutral[/b]
The overall pattern isn't looking as solid as was the case yesterday.
12Hz Ensembles, dry to start, but with a few wetter runs for the weekend.
The ECM 00Hz Ensembles show pressure edging away from the UK.
The Upper Charts keep an upper ridge close to the UK

[b]Negatives[/b]
ECM 00Hz run looking unsettled and rather damp at best for the festival.
ECM 12Hz run looking unsettled and rather damp at best for the festival.

Overall the charts not looking as good as yesterday, but still a lot better than Monday.

I would like to improve the rating but given the charts from ECM, I cannot do so, but the GFS means the rating remains at 5.0. 0=Dustbowl, 10 = Heatwave Scale

Will tomorrow see GFS look more like ECM or ECM look more like GFS. Time will tell.

[b]Links [/b]
Discussion thread and a bit more info [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-3"]http://forum.netweat...une-2014/page-3[/url]
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