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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 6 Issued 11 June

J10

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This is the 6th blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June],

Previous Blogs Summaries
No 1 Issued 11 May - Mostly Positive
No 2 Issued 18 May - Mostly Positive
No 3 Issued 25 May - Neutral
No 4 Issued 1 June - Neutral/Slightly Negative
No 5 Issued 8 June - Slightly Negative

The format of the forecasts will change from this one significantly as we are now in GFS range. We came into GFS range on Monday, and I though that after 3 days of runs we might be able to see a pattern even this far out.

[b]NOAA[/b]

I have attached the NOAA charts from the 1st -10th June, which forecast the 500mb Anomalies.

In both cases, click to animate the charts, the First chart is 6-10 days, the Second Charts is 8-14 days, they have been rotated 90 degrees, to enable the UK to be shown a bit clearer.

[attachment=215981:NOAA 500mb Heights 6-10 day (1st - 10th June).gif] [attachment=215980:NOAA 500mb Heights 8-14 day (1st - 10th June).gif]

The latest 6-10 day chart shows an upper ridge over the UK extending from Greenland, so in essence, the HP hanging on over the UK.
The latest 8-14 day chart shows an upper ridge over the Northern and Western parts of the UK extending from Greenland, so again the HP hanging on, but not as securely as per the 6-10 chart.

If you do not wish to animate the charts, daily updates are available in the main thread here. [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/page-2[/url]

Alternatively, here are the latest 6-10 and 8-14 charts issued yesterday.
[attachment=215982:500 HPA 10 June.gif] [attachment=215983:500 HPA 10 June -10 day.gif]

[b]GFS[/b]

There are 3 days worth of runs covering the start of the festival. In have saved more charts, but to (or try to) keep the blog manageable, I have only shown the charts for the 25th June.

Issued 9th June (06Hz to left, 12Hz to right)
Both show an unsettled and wet to the festival.
[attachment=215987:GFS 9 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=215988:GFS 9 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]

Issued 10th June (06Hz to left, 12Hz to right)
The 06Hz run shows an unsettled start to the festival, the 12Hz run shows the High Pressure hanging on.
[attachment=215986:GFS 10 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=215985:GFS 10 June to 25 June 12Hz.JPG]

Issued 11th June (06Hz to left, 12Hz to right)
[attachment=215984:GFS 11 June to 25 June 06Hz.JPG] [attachment=215989:GFS 11 June to 27 June 12Hz.JPG]
Both show an unsettled and wet to the festival.

Of the 6 runs on the 06Hz and 12Hz runs, 5 are going for the unsettled weather and only 1 for the High Pressure hanging on.

So even though other factors are more positive in terms of the High Pressure hanging on, this the main factor for me going for the slightly negative side of neutral.

[b]GFS Ensembles [/b]

[b]Pressure[/b]

Peaking at around 1030mb over coming days, before dropping back to around 1020mb by the 21st, and edging below this thereafter,

[attachment=215995:Pressure GIF.gif]

[b]Rainfall [/b]

Recent runs have shown an increase in expected rainfall over the period before and during the festival.

[attachment=215996:Rainfall GIF.gif]

[b]Summary [/b]

In Summary, a pattern has started to emerge, pressure is now rising over the UK in general, and also over Glastonbury and we are using Somerset ensembles. These indicate pressure peaking at around 1030mb around the 12th June. There is a slow decline and the pressure falls on average to around 1020mb by the 21st June. Thereafter the average drops below 1020mb before and during the festival, indicated an increased risk of wet and unsettled conditions at least to start the festival. Many of the control GFS runs have been outliers, and perhaps these make the starting conditions for the festival worse than they actuality look at the moment.

On the balance of probability at this stage, there remains a possibility of the more settled conditions holding on to start the festival, but is more likely that unsettled conditions will prevail.

As such my forecast today is Neutral / Slightly Negative.

Or on the Dust bowl / Mud bath Rating ( with 0 = Dust bowl and 10 = Mud bath) a 5.5

[attachment=215998:Glastonbury Rollercoaster Trendline.JPG]

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