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Weather guide Monday 9th to Sunday 15th June 2014

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[b]Headline: Showery at first; mostly dry and sometimes warm from Wednesday[/b]

Only small amounts of rain early last week but then Wednesday was a washout for many places. Llanwwnen getting 24mm and Church Lawford 22mm in 24 hours, while some parts saw closer to 2 inches (50mm). Wednesday also a very cool day, parts of Wales remained below 10c all day, quite unusual this for June, the high here being 11.7c when it brightened during the evening, still the coolest June day for a number of years. Things brightened considerably on Thursday, and warmed up on Friday, 22.7c the max here at Llanwnnen and even 21.8c on the coast at Aberporth, similarly warm for the Midlands too. Thunderstorms were fairly widespread early Saturday morning, particularly for Mid Wales and the West Midlands with heavy downpours too. Lightning as close as a mile with loud thunder here just before 0600. There a few further storms later on Saturday, especially over the West Midlands. Friday night was the warmest of the nascent Summer to date getting no lower than 13c here.

Quite a fine, reasonably Summery week in prospect, plenty of dry and at times bright weather and often fairly warm too, after that is, some rain or showers still until Tuesday. Sunday is a fairly dry and quite warm but breezy day, the Midlands getting into the low 70's F ( 21c or 22c) and close on 20c for inland West Wales (WW). A few sharp showers about, especially for Wales, but essentially dry over the Midlands this afternoon. Largely dry tonight too bar the odd Welsh shower. Perhaps more in the way of showers on Monday with the chance of thunder especially around midday, tending to become drier with sunny spells through later in the afternoon. Quite warm again, highs around 19c for WW and 22c for the East Midlands. Low pressure to our west then edges closer to Ireland during Monday night so further showers and longer spells of rain arrive in the early hours of Tuesday. Unsettled on Tuesday with the low crossing NW UK, showery, some heavy and thundery downpours about, highs down at 16 to 19c with a brisk SW wind. The SE Midlands (Northants/ Oxon) perhaps faring better on Tuesday with only a few showers, by virtue of being closer to high pressure over France.

High pressure then builds over southern Britain on Wednesday, so a dry, fine day with lighter winds. Not necessarily a sunny day though as there could well be stubborn layers of cloud much of the afternoon and just sunny intervals from time to time. Temperatures close to the June average at 19 to 21c, cooler on the coast though with the onshore breezes. A ridge of high pressure persists across SE UK on Thursday but with some weak Atlantic fronts affecting northern and western parts. Dry with some sunny spells for most places, especially the Midlands where it will reach a warm 22 or 23c, but there may be more in the way of cloud for WW afternoon even with a little rain or drizzle for hills and coasts. 18c on WW coasts, 20c inland WW the expected highs on Thursday. High pressure pulls more to the SW of Ireland on Friday, allowing a cooler NW feed of air. Still a largely dry and quite warm day though for the Midlands with sunny spells and maxima around 21c, although we may feel the effects of the NW breeze over WW restricting highs to below 18c here and bringing cloudier skies. The outside chance of a light shower for few places otherwise dry on Friday.

Most models keep relatively high pressure over the UK next weekend too, although with differences relating to intensity, positioning, etc. Suffice to say a lot of dry weather still and temperatures look close to average.with maxima say in the 18 to 22c range, we may be seeing something of a NE breeze however, which would tend to render the East Midlands coolest and WW warmest.
[attachment=215638:PPVG89 (1) showery r warm Mo.png][attachment=215639:ecmt850.048 some showers Mo.png][attachment=215641:ecmt850.072 showers lsr cooler r windy Tu.png][attachment=215641:ecmt850.072 showers lsr cooler r windy Tu.png][attachment=215642:PPVL89 dry r warm Wed.png][attachment=215643:ecmt850.096 dry rw We.png][attachment=215644:PPVO89 m dry warm Th dr poss WW pm.png][attachment=215645:ecmt850.120 fine warm Th.png][attachment=215646:ecmt850.144 cooling m dry FR.png][attachment=215647:h850t850eu HSW cooler WW m dry Fr.png][attachment=215648:ecmt850.168 m dry weekend.png][attachment=215651:h850t850eu m dry weekend.png][attachment=215652:prcpWarwickshire m dry from WE.png][attachment=215653:mgram_Birmingham.png]
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