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Weather guide Monday 2nd to Sunday 8th June 2014

TonyH

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[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Showers and longer spells of rain, dry interludes; cool mid week, potential warm, thundery plume Friday/ Saturday[/b][/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The Midlands had a very dull and often cool week, with the East Midlands particularly wet early in the week, many places getting over 25mm in the 3 days to Wednesday. Church Lawford, for example, was very cool on both Tuesday and Wednesday, only reaching 12c, some 5c below average for the end of May. West Wales escaped most the rain last week, with some dry, bright weather at times. West Wales was rather warm and bright on Friday and Saturday, 21c here on Friday.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]May 2014 was a wet but mild month, West Wales in particular was also dull. A somewhat unusual month in that much of the Midlands was wetter than much of West Wales! Some monthly rainfall totals:[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanwnnen 103.2mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Trawscoed 91.6mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Aberporth 66.4mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanelli 74.4mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coventry 107.2mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Church Lawford, Rugby 82mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coleshill 91.8mm[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Little Rissingtom 90mm[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Spring 2014 was very mild, this due, a large extent, to the lack of cold weather rather than prolonged very warm spells! Rainfall has been close to or a little above average for most parts this Spring.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]In spite of a fairly pleasant weekend things going downhill again during the coming week which will be unsettled with more rain and showers at times and with limited sunshine once more. Things could turn warm and thundery later in the week although this warmth may be restricted to the Midlands. Sunday is fine and warm for the Midlands, highs around 21c, but more cloudy and breezy for West Wales (WW) and 18c the best to hope for, although the sun may break through for brief intervals. Patchy rain arrives for Pembrokeshire eventually this afternoon moving across the rest of WW by evening, most of it quite light, but a rather damp end to the day in places. Rain at times for WW tonight (Sunday) with some of this affecting the Midlands too by dawn Monday. Several weather fronts slowly make their way across the UK during Monday so a rather cloudy day with rain at times, much of it only quite light, and a few brighter intervals. Highs Monday 17 or 18c for WW and 19 or 20c Midlands, these close to the early June average. Becoming generally dry overnight. Low pressure quite close to the NW on Tuesday, another unsettled day with showers and some longer spells of rain about, some sunny intervals, but some areas, and Pembrokeshire perhaps more likely, escaping with a mainly dry bright day. Cooler on Tuesday highs 15 to 18c.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Unusually, some rather wide differences in model output appearing as early as Wednesday this week, some charts showing low pressure over the UK giving further showers and rain in places, while others build a ridge during the afternoon which would kill the showers and give sunny intervals. Either way Wednesday is a cool day highs somewhere in the 13 to 18c range, coolest for NW Wales. I tend to go for quite a showery, cool Wednesday, heavy showers in places. There does seem to be some concensus for a slow moving low pressure complex to be deepening to the west and then SW of Ireland from Thursday on into the weekend. Suggestions again though of relatively high pressure close to England on Thursday, so another difficult day to call weatherwise. Literally it could end up cool and wet, or dry and feel quite warm! However, suffice to say WW more prone to rain at some stage on Thursday while the Midlands MAY get a largely dry day.[/font][/color]

[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Paradoxically the picture for Friday and Saturday seems more predictable than does Thursday! A deep low is situated SW of Ireland with a warmer SE feed of air arriving across Britain. A plume of very warm air may well reach us during Friday and for Saturday, but with this some heavy, and perhaps, thundery rain in places. WW probably not benefitting greatly from this upper atmosphere plume though with some very wet weather in prospect and this pinning temperatures to below 18c, while the East Midlands could see 22c on Friday given some sunny intervals. Saturday too sees potentially very warm, thundery weather over the Midlands in particular, in any sunny intervals between the downpours 25c could be achieved. WW on Saturday perhaps hindered by cloud and more general rain and so temperatures likely to be inhibited to 18c or so, and it could end up thoroughly cool and wet here! Likely to cool down everywhere by Sunday with further showers or longer spells of rain coming through.[/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=214580:PPVG89 some rain times Mo.png][attachment=214581:PPVJ89 showery rain cooler Tu.png][attachment=214584:PPVL89 showery Wed.png][attachment=214577:ecmt850.096 drying Wed.png][attachment=214584:PPVL89 showery Wed.png][attachment=214585:PPVO89 showers lsr windy Th.png][attachment=214587:metslp.96 showery L Th.png][attachment=214588:ecmt850.120 m dry warmer TH.png][attachment=214589:ecmt850.120 rain WW m dry Mids TH.png][attachment=214590:ecmt850.144 windy thundery rain plume later FR.png][attachment=214591:h850t850eu wet WW plume later FR.png][attachment=214595:ecmt850.168 weekend plume exits unsettled r windy.png][attachment=214596:h850t850eu thundery plume Sat.png][attachment=214592:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=214593:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire rain times esp FR SA.png][attachment=214594:prmslWarwickshire unsettled drier mid week.png][attachment=214597:t850Warwickshire cool mid week warm FR SA.png][/font][/color]

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