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Glastonbury Festival 2014 25 to 29 June - Forecast No 1

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J10

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This is the first blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June]

At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.

1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]
4. [b]MJO Index[/b]

So moving on to the detail.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]

These are produced weekly and this week Paul has very kindly supplied me with a higher resolution version of the forecast.
[attachment=212739:June Rainfall May 11.JPG] [attachment=212740:June Temps 11 May.JPG]

This indicates that rainfall in June will be lower than average for Glastonbury with temps above average. Good News indeed, however this is still a good way out.

However I will still show last week’s version for comparison and trend analysis. These charts are available from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Long Range Forecast Maps.

[b]June[/b] [attachment=212728:Temps June 10 May.png] [attachment=212729:Rainfall June 10 May.png]

The above shows the warmer than expected weather for the UK, and drier weather compared to normal, one big disadvantage of CFS is that rainfall tends to be shown over the Midlands, so it always overdoes rainfall in this area.
[b]July[/b] [attachment=212726:Temps July 10 May.png] [attachment=212727:Rainfall July 10 May.png]

July continues the warm theme, but shows the risk of slightly wetter weather than normal. Unfortunately this is a problem with the Pressure charts this week, however this should be corrected by next week.

2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]

CFS does a run for months ahead, and I have detailed the forecast for the Glastonbury festival from each daily run. These charts are available from Net Weather Extra, titled under the section Daily Long Range Charts [Raw CFS]

[attachment=212733:CFS Daily.JPG]

Example Run here - [attachment=212742:Example Run Pressure.png] [attachment=212743:Example Run Rainfall.png] [attachment=212744:Example Run Temps.png][code=auto:0] CFS Run Date obtained Pressure [Shorthand - HP High pressure, LP = Low Pressure] Winds Rain Temps 01 May 00Hz 06-May HP generally, LP edging up from S for weekend Dry to start, Showers over weekend Light Orange to Orange 07-May No Forecast Available 02 May 00HZ 08-May Rather unsettled throughout, but no massive LP NW Rain or Showers most days Yellow / Light Orange 08 May 00HZ 09-May HP before festival and always close to South West NW Odd showers, mostly dry for SW Light Orange to Orange 09 May 00HZ 10-May HP Start and end of Festival, LP attempts to push in midway from NW SW Light Showers at times Light Orange to Orange Where winds is the main wind direction for the duration of the festival. [/code]
From history these tend to be rather pessimistic, so the rather mixed picture is not too bad at the moment.

3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]

[attachment=212734:CFS Monthly From Meteociel.JPG]

[url="http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php"]http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php[/url]

Where z500 and PRMSL relates to Pressure, and 850Hpa and Temps 2m relates to Temps at different levels of the atmosphere.[code=auto:0] For June Run 850Hpa z500 (UK) z500 (G) PRMSL (UK) PRMSL (G) Temps 2m (UK) Temps 2m (G) Rainfall(Blue < average, Red > average) 06-May 0c to +2c -4 (S) to +6 (N) -2 to 0 -4 (S) to 0 (N) -2 to -4 +0c (SE) to 6c (N) 0c to +2c Red / White all S uk 07-May +2 (SW) to +6 (NE) +4 to +5 0 (SW) to +2 (NE) +1 +2c (S) to +4c (N) +2c to +3c Mix, White locally 08-May -2c to 0c 0 (S) to +6 (N) +1 to +2 +2 (S) to +6 (N) +3 to +4 +0c (S) to +2c (N) +1c to +2c Blue most of UK, Light Red Far SW 09-May 0c to +4c +2 (W) to +4 (E) +3 -2 (NW) to 0 (S/SE) 0 +2c (S) to +4c (N) +2c to +3c Blue most of UK, Light Red Midlands 10-May 0c -2 (SW) to 0 (Else) -1 to 0 -2 (SW) to 0 (Else) 0 +0c (S) to +2c (N) 0c to +1c Blue / White all Southern UK [/code][code=auto:0] For July Run 850Hpa z500 (UK) z500 (G) PRMSL (UK) PRMSL (G) Temps 2m (UK) Temps 2m (G) Rainfall(Blue < average, Red > average) 06-May 0c to +2c +2 (W) to +4 (E) +2 to +4 +2 (S) to 0 (N) +2 0c (SE) to 6c (N) 0c to +2c Red Midlands, Blue other S areas 07-May 0c to +1c 0 to +2 (SE) +1 to +2 +0 (S) to +2 (N) +1 1c (SE) to 3c (N) +2c to +3c Red / Deep Red 08-May 0c to +1c +2 (SE) to +6 (NW) +2 to +3 +2 (SE) to +6 (NW) +2 to +4c 1c (SE) to 4c (N) +2c to +3c Blue most of UK, Light Red Midlands 09-May +1c to +2c +1 (S) to +8 (N) +1 to +2 +0 (S) to +2 (N) 0c 1c (SE) to 6c (N) +2c to +3c Light Blue SW, Deep Red Midlands 10-May +1c to +2c 0 to +2 0 to +1 -2 (N) to +0 (S) -1c to 0c 1c (SE) to 6c (N) 0c to +1c Blue S Eng, Red Midlands [/code]
In summary most forecasts are going for a warm festival, pressure is a bit more variable but on average, this is slightly higher than average, while rainfall is also mixed, perhaps slightly higher than average.

4. [b]MJO Index[/b]
I am looking to incorporate this into future forecasts, however it is still a bit early to do so, but the initial analysis has been included on the main Glastonbury discussion thread.

[b]Summary[/b]
In summary a lot of data, early indications are rather positive for Glastonbury, hopefully Next week’s update will be just as promising, please get involved on the dedicated forum thread, and please also send comments about the forecasts and any potential tweaks for future versions.

Link to Discussion Thread [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2966973"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80198-glastonbury-wed-25-to-sun-29-june-2014/?p=2966973[/url]
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