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Weather guide Monday 3rd to Sunday 9th February 2014

TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with heavy rain and strong winds at times, some drier, brighter interludes; continued flooding risk; temperatures around average[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A short- lived coldish snap last week, although here in West Wales it was only Thursday that was rather cold with highs of 3 to 5c. It stayed quite cold for a couple of days over the Midlands, and on Thursday many places here did not exceed 2c by day, and there was also a little sleet or snow in places. However contrary to expectations in the prevous guide, it was not overall a cold week but rather worked out around average, and with all the cloud we escaped frosts by and large. At least there were two virtually dry days here on Wednesday and Thursday, the first time this has happened since early December, to give a little respite from the rains, although the Midlands remained damp. Provisionally with a mean 183mm overall, January 2014 has been the wettest over Wales and England in a rainfall series dating back some 250 years! Parts of the southern England and Midlands having three times the average rainfall, at Coventry and Rugby it has been the wettest January since records began in the nineteenth century for example, whilst here at Llanwnnen merely the wettest since 2008 (238mm). January was also a mild month with no hard frosts and was snowless for many. Some monthly rainfall totals:[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 236.3mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Aberporth, Ceredigion: 201.8mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Llanelli: 239.5mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Capel Curig, Snowdonia: 391.4mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 166.6mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Long Lawford, Rugby: 132.4mm[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington, Cotswolds: 195mm approx[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Although we will see some drier interludes in the coming week the overall theme remains disturbed with a series of deep Atlantic lows with our name on them! This means the prospect of further bouts of heavy rain, localised flooding, and strong, possibly damaging winds. The worst of the weather looks to be during Tuesday night, Wednesday and again on Friday night. Little let up in the exceptionally wet weather well into February it seems, putting us on course for the wettest Winter of the past 250 years too perhaps.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Sunday is a respite day with only scattered showers these chiefly affecting parts of Wales, and all of us seeing some sunny spells. Pleasantly mild at 8 or 9c this afternoon with a bit of a SW breeze. There could be enough clear spells tonight for a ground frost over the Midlands but increasing southerly winds and cloud should prevent this for West Wales. A dry start to Monday for most although the rain soon arriving after dawn across Pembrokeshire. A slow moving band of rain, some heavy then gradually extends across all of SW Wales by midday and onto NW Wales early afternoon, there could be sleet or a little snow for the highest hills. Eventually a wet day then for West Wales, while the rain should not arrive until early evening for the Midlands, so essentially a dry day here with some bright spells. Highs on Monday around average for February at 6 to 8c. A fresh to strong south to SW wind everywhere. The rain clears West Wales by early evening but could linger over the East Midlands until well after midnight. Eventually some clear spells for all leading to a widespread ground frost, minima close to zero, although some showers affecting SW Wales overnight, so staying closer to 3c here. The Midlands not faring badly on Tuesday either, plenty of dry, bright weather and just the odd shower. Sunny intervals for West Wales too at least through the morning, but with occasional showers, some heavy with hail, and then clouding over afternoon. Highs on Tuesday of 6 to 8c again. We should all notice winds increasing through Tuesday afternoon as a significant depression approaches the south of Ireland. This deep low then crosses Ireland through Tuesday night with strong to gale force winds and heavy rain quickly spreading to all of Wales and the Midlands through the evening, and lasting well into the night, with localised flooding prospects by morning, as there could be an inch of rain falling in places - again just cold enough for sleet or snow for the tops of Snowdonia and the Brecon Beacons. The south to SW wind looks strong enough to cause some damage through Tuesday night and may reach 80mph for coasts and hills of Wales. Staying very windy throughout Wednesday with gales in places and showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times with the chance of hail and thunder. This may well be another occasion when a tidal surge threatens western coasts, what with the strong SW to west winds, deep low pressure over Northern Ireland/ Scotland and decent sea fetch - the promenade was breached by the sea again at Aberystwyth on Saturday night. Maxima 7 to 9c on Wednesday, so quite mild. The Midlands becoming mostly dry on Wednesday night but showers keep going across much of West Wales, some heavy with hail and thunder still. At least the winds will be easing through the night, perhaps even enough for local ground frost by dawn Thursday. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Hopeful that Thursday proves to be another respite day of sunny spells, only a few showers and much less wind as we should be between low pressure systems. The Midlands could even be mostly dry on Thursday. There will be a southerly tracking low during Thursday which may threaten rain to the south as we go through the day, but present trends suggest this stays just to the south of Wales and the Midlands. However, the outside chance that this system tracks further north in which case Thursday could prove a wetter day than anticipated especially in the south of our regions. Highs of 6 to 8c with gentle winds. Reasonable chance of a widespread but slight frost on Thursday night, down just below zero in places as winds will be quite light and with clear periods. Yet another deep Atlantic low is heading our way on Friday it would seem, so although it may start dry and in places frosty, some showers are then likely, before eventually we all see further wet and windy weather by Friday evening or night, with gales in places. Temperatures close to average once more. This deep low crosses the UK during Saturday which is likely to be a disturbed day with showers and some longer spells of rain, along with strong to gale force winds. Showers may turn wintry, particularly for the hills as we progress through next weekend as it may turn a little colder but nothing drastic! The unsettled weather with minimal snow risk looks like continuing until at least the middle of February, so further wet weather at times maintaining flooding risks. No high pressure in sight, so very unlikely to get more than a dry day or two at a time.[/size][/font]
[attachment=205949:PPVG89 wet Mon WW.png][attachment=205950:ecmt850.048 rain to all by Mon eve.png][attachment=205951:PPVJ89 respite Tue.png][attachment=205952:PPVK89 wet windy gales Tue night.png][attachment=205953:ecmt850.096 win dy showers lsr Wed.png][attachment=205954:PPVL89 windy showers lsr Wed.png][attachment=205955:ecmt850.120 respite low to FRance.png][attachment=205956:PPVO89 respite some showers less wind Th.png][attachment=205957:metslp.120 few showers Th.png][attachment=205962:ukprec rain stays to south.png][attachment=205958:ecmt850.144 becoming wet windy Fri.png][attachment=205959:ecmt850.144 becoming wet windy Fri.png][attachment=205960:ecmt850.168 showers lsr windy Sat.png][attachment=205961:ecmt850.192 colder perhaps wintry showers Sun.png][attachment=205963:prcpWarwickshire rain at times drier interludes Warks.png][attachment=205964:t850Warwickshire ave temps.png][attachment=205965:prmslSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion unsettled to mid month.png][attachment=205966:mgram_Birmingham.png]


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The southerly low decided then to head our way today Thursday making for a rather wet afternoon!

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