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Weather guide Monday 13th to Sunday 19th January 2014

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TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain or showers at times; mild mid week then cooler and perhaps drier, some frost[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Another wet week gone but at least it became much drier from Thursday. Thunder and lightning occurred early in the week in the showers especially for Wales, here in the Lampeter area both Monday and Tuesday had overhead storms with some hail. Unusually January so far has witnessed 3 thunder days, for comparison during the whole of 2013 thunder was audible on just 4 days! Mild for the most part too last week, although some frosts since mid week, down to -2.3c here on Thursday night, the lowest reading since November and again Saturday night (-2.5c). Saturday was a lovely day with plenty of sunshine followed by a frosty night, virtually everywhere inland getting below zero for a change this Winter, lowest readings include Benson, Oxon -4.6c, Hereford -4.2c and Trawscoed at -3.5c. Winter 2013/14 has been very mild as we reach it's mid point this week, many places yet to see as much as a flake of snow! No prolonged dry spell as yet showing with low pressure dominating this week close to the UK. Never especially cold and so another week with very minimal snow risk.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A bright Sunday morning for the East Midlands but it has become cloudy and breezy elsewhere as weather fronts spread over from the west. Rain reaches West Wales early this afternoon spreading to the Midlands around sunset where it will have been a cloudy afternoon ahead. Freshening southerly winds through this afternoon into this evening along with the rain. Rain clears around midnight to leave some coastal showers out west, lows of 2 or 3c so localised grass frost. A bright and dry Monday morning for many but a showery trough moves into West Wales early afternoon this spreading showers east to the Midlands eventually by dusk, some heavy showers with hail possible. Highs a little above the mid January average at 7 or 8c on Monday afternoon. Showers largely dying out overnight and with light winds and clearing skies a widespread slight frost, down to -2c in places, still the odd shower for Welsh coasts however. A bright frosty dawn on Tuesday and for the Midlands a little bump of high pressure should mean a dry, bright day as well. A few showers about from the off for West Wales along with sunny intervals, but increasing cloud brings patchy light rain and drizzle afternoon, this spreading to the Midlands after dark. We are in a warm sector by Tuesday evening and so temperatures on the rise reaching 9 or 10c over Pembrokeshire and 6c for the East Midlands by midnight after a chilly day. A rather wet and windy but mild night to follow with the SW winds gusting gale force over coasts and hills of Wales, and where there will be heavy rain at times. Low pressure centred quite close to Ireland during Wednesday and associated fronts could be dragging their heels somewhere across Wales or England, so potentially a thoroughly wet day for certain regions as yet to be confirmed, this not helping flooding issues as the ground is saturated to capacity. A fresh SW wind through Wednesday but mild highs of around 10c. The more general rain should be clearing on Wednesday night leaving a few showers scattered about.

Low pressure is stuck just to our NW to end the week, it's eastward progress blocked by a large cold anticyclone over Scandinavia, and so the unsettled theme continues towards the weekend. Thursday perhaps one of those days where Wales tends to catch the showers, hail in these, but the Midlands due to the SW or west flow is in the 'rain shadow' of the Welsh hills and escapes largely dry and bright? A more pronounced trough may however crop up overriding topographical factors and bring some showers across most places afternoon. Highs still quite mild at around 8c. Showers and breezes should decrease overnight Thursday for at least a ground frost to occur. down close to zero. Again probably no washout on Friday, but troughs in our vicinity, and so some showers should be expected along with sunny intervals, but, as is often the case, some areas remaining dry. Reasonable highs of 6 to 8c on Friday. A messy set up next weekend, neither low nor high gaining overall dominance, and so best that can be surmised is some decent dry spells, yet also the threat of some rain or showers at times too, Saturday perhaps the best chance of a dry, bright day. Light winds much of the weekend so any clearances overnight readily producing frost as we are not in mild air next weekend. Nothing suggests any snow during the coming week bar a little on the higher peaks. [/size][/font]
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