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Weather guide Monday 2nd to Sunday 8th December 2013



[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Dry with some frost and fog to mid week; cold snap likely Friday to Sunday with wintry showers in places[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]November ended on a dry, quiet note, very little rain falling anywhere in the final week. After a rather cold start temperatures recovered to around the late November average from mid week and Saturday was sunny for most with parts of West Wales such as Milford Haven topping a rather mild 10c. Overall November 2013 was quite a dry month although parts of the West Midlands did touch average rainfall. Mean temperatures were slightly below average for November as a whole.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Rainfall totals for November 2013:

Capel Curig, Snowdonia 155mm
Llanwnnen, Ceredigion 111mm
Llanelli, Carmarthenshire 110mm
Church Lawford and Long Lawford, near Rugby 41mm
Coventry, Warwickshire 61mm
Little Rissington, Cotswolds 72mm

More dry, quiet weather early in the coming week, with a cold snap quite likely for Friday and Saturday with snow showers in places, nothing prolonged as yet though.

High pressure centred over the UK on Sunday, although not quite as intense as it was early last week when the barometer attained 1042mbar - the highest of the whole year! A lot of cloud now within the circulatiuon compared with Saturday, so sunshine at a premium on Sunday afternoon, and the cloud thick enough for a little drizzle over parts of West Wales. Fairly mild on Sunday maxima 9 to 11c with hardly any wind. Cloud may well break up somewhat after midnight leading to a fairly widespread grass frost and patchy fog. Lows just above zero generally, although where the cloud sticks nearer 4c and no fog. High pressure remains over us through Monday so another mostly dry, quiet day. Where fog has formed it could take all morning to clear and so peg back temperatures with highs below 5c if this happens, for most of us though more like 7 or 8c and there will be some sunny intervals. Clear spells overnight Monday with frost anf fog more prevalent, minima just below zero, but most coasts escaping. Again fog could be slow to clear on Tuesday morning with light winds again. Sunny intervals on Tuesday once any fog clears but some places remaining overcast. Temperatures struggling up to 6 or 7c but milder for West Wales coasts, 9c here later as a weakening front approaches from the north with attendant SW breeze. This weakening cold front gradually edges south on Tuesday night and during Wednesday. For most the cloud prevents frost from forming on Tuesday evening, but the South Midlands in particular could turn frosty after dark Tuesday provided skies are clear. A little light rain or drizzle in places for North and later West Wales for Tuesday night, some of this surviving down into the Midlands by Wednesday morning, but very patchy and insignificant amounts if at all. The front should have cleared or dissipated by Wednesday afternoon with sunny spells and highs close to the early December average of 8 or 9c, so quite a pleasant afternoon if a touch breezy. Clear periods on Wednesday evening leads to a widespread slight frost and temperatures down to around zero by midnight.

Changes on Thursday as low pressure over Scandinavia throws down a more active cold front from the NW through the day. A bright and frosty start in places Thursday but the cloud and wind increasing through the morning ahead of the front. Rain arrives sometime afternoon accompanied by a strong NW wind making it feel cold although temperatures will reach 7 to 9c, near normal. Some heavy bursts of rain in places on Thursday afternoon or early evening, perhaps turning to sleet or snow briefly as it clears, particularly above 200m such as the Cotswolds perhaps? The front clears through early to mid evening and much colder Arctic air arrives overnight bringing wintry showers in places and also a widespread penetrating frost. Feeling bitter as the strong NW wind continues, lows not much below zero but with significant windchill. Although this cold snap for the end of the week seems likely, the models have not been unanimous over it, and so it must be mentioned here that there is still the chance that the really cold air ends up passing to our east. This guide is going for the cold affecting the UK due to the ECM model having been resolute with this outcome over its recent days output. Alternative scenarios for Friday would be a chilly high pressure over us with frost, or less cold westerly winds and some rain or showers, but here we will predict a cold snap. In fact, potentially Friday and Saturday could be very cold days with snow showers in places as temperatures at cloud level could be as low as -10c and this would mean temperatures only reaching 1 to 3c by day. Precipitation-wise, and given the cold snap these will mostly be of hail, sleet or snow and would align in streets with the NW wind, so that some areas catch plenty while adjacent areas largely miss them. Hard to guess, but areas prone to snow showers could be Snowdonia, Cardigan Bay and the West Midlands - and for these regions temporary coverings of snow cannot be ruled out, especially for higher ground. As usual in these showery situations however, some of us will be wondering what all the fuss was about come next Sunday and may have experienced a mostly dry, bright but cold couple of days! In any case high pressure is likely to reassert over southern Britain next weekend killing off the wintry showers but with severe frosts becoming more likely as winds fall light, Saturday night in particular seeing -6 or -7c locally.

Any cold snap will be just that, as during the following week things should be turning much milder as we head towards mid December.
[attachment=195955:PPVE89 H UK Sun.png][attachment=195956:ecmt850.072 weakening tr prevents frost Tu night.png][attachment=195957:h850t850eu Tue dry frost fog am.png][attachment=195958:PPVL89 little rain places Wed am.png][attachment=195959:ecmt850.096 m dry brightening Wed then frost eve.png][attachment=195960:PPVO89 cf pm becomes windy some rain.png][attachment=195961:metslp.120 CF Th windy rain pm.png][attachment=195962:ecmt850.120 arctic air v cold wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=195963:ecmt850.168 cold frosty m dry weekend.png][attachment=195964:h850t850eu cold dry frosty weekend H S UK.png][attachment=195965:t850Warwickshire cold snap not unanimous.png][attachment=195966:mgram_Birmingham cold snap likely Fr to Su.png][/size][/font]


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That Scandinavian depression turned in to quite a storm! However taking the cold air quickly east of UK by this weekend.

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Categorically not even a cold snap: min 5c last night and 9c at midday Friday! Mild in fact!

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