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Weather guide Monday 14th to Sunday 20th October 2013

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TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain at times; cool start, mild end to the week[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]The mild air was duly swept away during Wednesday by chilly north winds. The change most marked across the Midlands, on Tuesday it reached a warm 20.7c at Coventry, on Thursday just 11.5c and colder than it had been during Tuesday night! For West Wales Monday night was especially mild with a low of 14.6c at this location. Most of West Wales had a fairly dry week, just 7mm falling at Llanwnnen, but the Midlands saw very wet weather on Saturday with one inch (25.2mm) falling at Coventry in the 24 hours to Sunday morning and well over half an inch at Rugby. In contrast most of West Wales has been dry so far this weekend. More wet weather across the Midlands on Sunday morning, but hopeful that this is becoming more patchy from the east this afternoon. A rather cloudy Sunday afternoon with showery rain in places, but turning drier for the central and eastern Midlands, whereas the SW Midlands keeps the heavy rain, and this also moves into SW Wales, where there could be some heavy rain later this afternoon. A very cool day maxima of just 11 or 12c at best, but SW Wales nearer 14c.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]An unsettled week ahead with rain at times and no prolonged dry weather, but at least temperatures rising to above average from mid week. The low pressure that is giving all the rain this weekend is sat over England on Monday, so further outbreaks of rain at times, some heavier bursts still possible. A cool and quite windy day (Midlands especially) and with all the cloud temperatures no higher than 11 or 12c again, although SW Wales with bright intervals could see 14c locally. Skies should clear on Monday night with a ground frost in places, lows close to zero for parts of mid Wales. The low slowly moves away east Tuesday, while the next front remains to our SW, so prospects of a much drier and brighter day although we cannot rule out the odd light shower. Sunny intervals through Tuesday, especially for West Wales, highs of 13 to 15c. Lighter winds on Tuesday. An active frontal system moves NE across all parts through Wednesday with heavy rain in places, temperatures struggling with the cloudy skies, no better than the average of 14 or 15c, and quite a strong SW wind may also develop on Wednesday. The worst of the rain should have cleared through West Wales mid afternoon and the Midlands by sunset, by which time we will be in mild Atlantic air with a few showers.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A lull on Thursday seems likely as systems become very sluggish and the promise of a transient ridge for Wales and the Midlands. A mostly dry, bright and mild day but parts of West Wales catching showers afternoon, feeling very pleasant in the sunny intervals with temperatures of 15 or 16c. A mostly dry, mild night to follow. The end of the week and indeed next weekend is controlled by a large slow moving low sat to the west or SW or Ireland. This drags up mild south to SW winds but also brings rain bands from time to time, no doubt some heavy bursts of rain at times. With even brief sunny intervals however temperatures could reach 17 or 18c comfortably over next weekend, and winds should not be too strong either.[/size][/font]
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