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Weather guide Monday 30th September to Sunday 6th October 2013

TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mild, breezy and unsettled; rain or showers at times, especially during Wednesday/ Thursday[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Although we were under a very warm air mass for late September early last week, the warmth was not realised in some areas due to persistent low cloud and even mist, this especially spoiling things for parts of the Midlands and SW Wales. Mumbles, Swansea failed to get above 17c on either Monday or Tuesday. For Cardigan Bay and Snowdonia it was glorious early in the week, on Monday Trawsgoed was the warmest place in the UK reaching 25c and it managed 23.6c here near Lampeter. Warmth returned on Friday and Saturday where many places reached 19 to 21c. The highest reading of the week at Coventry was 19.9c on Wednesday so nothing remarkable warmth-wise for the Midlands last week. Some very mild nights too, no lower than 15c on Sunday night here and 14c on Monday night at Coventry (the average late September night would record 8c) Very little rain about last week, less than a millimetre here and no measurable rain at Coventry, we missed the thunderstorms that affected SW England on Saturday. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Sunday we are still in this warm drag of air from the SE off the Continent, and with a weakening front strung out across the south just the threat of some showery rain in places this afternoon, for most no more than a light shower or two, while many places remain dry again. Sunny intervals for Sunday afternoon and feeling pleasant with highs close to 20c. Through the first half of this week are between the influences of a large, slow moving low to the SW of Ireland and a high over Scandinavia, this set up dragging up relatively warm air from the south. Of course, as we are in October from Tuesday, a 'warm' day is anything above 18c as the averages rapidly taper off through Autumn and will soon be referred to as 'mild' instead! The low sends further fronts our way from the SW, again these tending to weaken over us. Another rather cloudy, quite warm day then for Monday, some areas fortunate to get pleasant sunny breaks, while others stay largely cloudy. No great amounts of rain being modelled for Monday, more a case of patchy, light showers occurring and with some areas staying completely dry. Highs on Monday are sun dependent, varying from just 16c where dull and damp, to a warm 20c where decent sunny intervals occur. More of the same on Tuesday, rather large amounts of cloud, bits and pieces of rain about, with a more definite chance that West Wales gets a proper soaking rather than a mere splash on Tuesday, while parts of the Midlands just about escaping with another generally dry and mild day. Temperatures reaching 16c where wettest and 19c where it stays dry. Tuesday night one of the milder nights of the coming week as we are in a warm sector, some areas no lower than 14c.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Wednesday, and the low is closer to western Ireland, so Wales certainly at risk of some wet weather at times, but lighter, patchier rain and drizzle for the Midlands. Very mild southerlies for Wednesday, temperatures between 18 and 20c, and even 21c is possible if it brightens over the Midlands, quite impressive levels now we are into October! A strengthening southerly wind through the day, especially for the Irish Sea where gale force gusts are likely. Further rain in places overnight Wednesday, this heavy at times for Wales, and a very mild, muggy night, minima between 13 and 15c. Thursday could be the wettest day of the week - low pressure by now centred NW of Ireland with a slow moving front strung out across western UK or Ireland, so at last even the Midlands should expect a soaking. Mild, but with a fresh south to SW wind, maxima between 16 and 18c, so feeling cooler with the wind and rain. The rain could still be going strong well into Thursday night, some places getting an inch in total on this day. By Friday the low is to the north of Scotland, still close enough to produce some further rain or showers, but less intense than on Thursday and with dry, brighter spells between. Cooler for Friday, especially West Wales, no higher than 15c here, while 17 or 18c in places for the Midlands, then with a cooler, fresher night to follow, minima below 10c for the first time this week. Winds will have substantially moderated by the end of the week. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]The promise of a ridge of high pressure arriving in time for Saturday, which looks mainly dry if a touch cool, maxima down to 14 or 15c, and a little below the early October average. The fine weather could hang on into Sunday too, the Midlands may get away with a dry and bright Sunday too, however the next Atlantic low is heading for Ireland and so we may well see rain eventually for West Wales. [/size][/font]
[attachment=186831:PPVG89 weakening fronts shower thret Mon.png][attachment=186832:ecmt850.048 r warm chance of shower Mon.png][attachment=186833:PPVJ89 rain esp WW Tue.png][attachment=186834:PPVM89 vm rain times windy in west Wed.png][attachment=186835:h850t850eu v mild rain times Wed.png][attachment=186836:metslp.96 wet windy west drier east Wed.png][attachment=186837:ecmt850.144 cooler unsettled FRi.png][attachment=186838:ecmslp.168 drier weekend rain threat Wales.png][attachment=186839:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion wet WW Wed Thu.png][attachment=186840:t850West~Midlands mild to Fri.png][attachment=186841:mgram_Birmingham.png]

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