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Weather guide Monday 23rd to Sunday 29th September 2013

TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Dry, bright and warm to mid week; some rain and cooler from Thursday/ Friday[/b][/size][/font]


[font=arial][size=3]A rather cool and unsettled week gone with rain at times, Wales wetter than the Midlands as is typical, Llanwnnen recieving 33mm in total during the past 7 days, compared with just 9mm at Coventry for example. Notably cool across the Midlands on Tuesday, highs of just 10 or 11c in places, at 11c maximum it was the coldest September day in Coventry since 1983 (thanks to Steve Jackson [/size][/font][url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]@bablakewx[/url][font=arial][size=3] ). Then very cool for parts of Wales last Wednesday when it only managed 13.2c here at Llanwnnen, this some 5c below the average mid September figure. For most of us it has warmed up appreciably during this weekend thanks to a deep Tropical marime flow of air, courtesy of former hurricane Humberto - although not everywhere has seen the sunshine as yet! Where the sun did appear it was warm on Saturday reaching 22 or 23c. Most places seeing at least some warm sunshine up to Tuesday, possibly even Wednesday, with the trend being to cooler and more unsettled condtions as we progress through the week.[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Warm last night, most places no lower than 14 to 16c, here it was the warmest night of September with a minimum of 15.1c, the average for a late September night being 9c.Some areas faring poorly on Sunday and failing to benefit from the warm air mass due to persistent low cloud. However, a better chance than on Saturday for decent sunny spells to develop more widely raising temperatures into the low to mid 70's F ( 21 to 24c). A sunny start evident on the Bablake webcam in Coventry this morning (although more cloudy there currently) - the Midlands a favoured area for sunny spells through this afternoon too, while for West Wales more pot luck. The north coast of Gwynedd sheltered by Snowdonia and parts of Cardigan Bay seeing sunshine at times this afternoon, so hopfeful that the Ceredigion coasts seeing some warm sunny spells eventually, along with places such as Llandudno and Moelfre, Anglesey. South facing coasts though always more likely to stick with the low cloud, places such as Tenby and Aberdaron perhaps staying mostly cloudy, even misty today, and so temperatures not rising much at all, no better than 19c here, although still pleasantly warm for late September. Another mild night to follow. By Monday the high pressure more favourably positioned to our east and winds coming more from the SE means a better prospect for most spots to join in with some very warm and sunny conditions. Plenty of sunshine then expected for most on Monday, highs generally 22 to 25c, way above average for this stage in Autumn! It is still possible that a few coastal places with onshore breezes miss out suffering persistent sea mist, areas like West Pembrokeshire perhaps, and if so no better than 19c here, but even Cardigan Bay coasts should be reaching a sunny 22c on Monday.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Clear periods on Monday night with fog forming in places and so it may be a foggy start to Tuesday. Our high pressure is getting squeezed out by fronts to the SW and NE, although inbetween we stay dry and warm again. Good prospects again then for warm sunny spells on Tuesday once any fog clears, highs between 21 and 23c widely, and almost certainly the last time we experience such warmth until next Spring, although again cooler for some coasts. Dry for all on Tuesday. Mist and fog forming once more in places through Tuesday night where clear intervals permit. Another misty start for some on Wednesday, but then another generally dry day, even if pressure is relatively low by this point, with the fronts to our SW and NE not moving much and also fizzling out. A warm day with sunny intervals expected for Wednesday, there could be a light shower in places but generally dry once more with light winds. Highs on Wednesday 18 to 21c. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Thursday is when the uncertainties and differing scenarios come into play this week. It is starting to turn more unsettled and somewhat cooler, although many models keep it on the mild side still. The warm air mass from the start of the week has most certainly evaporated away, and it will have turned cool over northern UK, but for Wales and England this cool air not likely to make headway south even by next weekend. The best description for Thursday would be that we are in a kind of 'No Man's Land' weatherwise, pressure neither high nor low, temperatures close to average (around 17c), variable cloud, but sunshine in places, mostly dry, but some places catching a shower! Friday, and a trough of low pressure is developing west of Ireland it would seem, although the uncertainty must be stressed and low pressure may be deflected more to our SW keeping it mainly dry for the end of the week? More probable a scenario though is that we see falling pressure for Friday and Saturday, with rain at times, but no washout expected, temperatures perhaps rather warm on Friday, but then closer to average over the weekend. Saturday would appear to be the day most likely to be wet, the trough then looks like slowly clearing east by Sunday which would be a brighter and drier day. Looking very unsettled, wet and windy at times, as we move into October...[/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=186152:PPVG89 v warm sunny Mon.png][attachment=186154:ecmt850.048 v warm sun Mon.png][attachment=186153:PPVJ89 dry warm between fronts.png][attachment=186155:ecmt850.096 m dry warm Wed.png][attachment=186156:metslp.120 NML Thu.png][attachment=186157:PPVO89 m dry rel mild Thu.png][attachment=186158:ecmt850.144 FRi r warm but rain to WW.png][attachment=186159:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend but mild.png][attachment=186160:prcpWest~Midlands unsettled from Thu.png][attachment=186161:mgram_Birmingham warm to mid week unsettles ending.png][/size][/font]

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