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Weather guide Monday 16th to Sunday 22nd September 2013

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Cool and unsettled with rain at times; potentially dry and warm next weekend[/b]
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Plenty of cloud last week, cool for the most part, although it briefly warmed up on Thursday when most of us reached 19 to 22c. Thursday was the only day to get above 17c here, the average September maxima being 18c, so a decidedly cool week gone. Mostly dry early in the week, but then wet at times during Thursday and Friday. Coldest night of the Autumn to date last night here, the low of 0.8c and a ground frost. Over the Midlands it got down to 4 or 5c quite widely. A cool, unsettled and at times wet and windy week ahead, although big improvement hopes for next weekend to drier and warmer conditions thanks to a former hurricane![/size][/font]
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The first deep Autumn low is bringing strong to gale force winds and spells of rain and drizzle for Sunday afternoon, wind gusts peaking at 50 to 60mph in places, which will cause some damage and falling branches. The rain turning heavier this afternoon, especially for West Wales, where there could be over an inch in total. By midnight this low has a central pressure of 964mbar and is positioned SE of Iceland, fuelled by a jet stream which during Monday will be blasting through the UK at almost 200mph some 30,000 feet above our heads! The main rain clears through early this evening, but with rain and hail showers rattling into coastal areas of west and north Wales throughout the night.. Strong to gale force winds continuing overnight but these will have veered to NW from the SW that they are currently. The deep low is only moving slowly to the north of Scotland throughout Monday, so strong NW winds continuing, again gusting to gale force at times. Very cool and showery on Monday, plenty of blustery showers coming through, these heavy with hail in places, this especially for West Wales. Highs only between 11 and 13c, well below average for September. Cold enough for some sleet or snowflakes in the showers for high up on Snowdonia! Parts of the Midlands missing the worst of the showers on Monday where shelter is afforded by the Welsh hills. The worst of the wind should be easing as we go into Monday evening. The low still close by over the North Sea during Tuesday, with the complication of another secondary system crossing SW parts early in the day. A further scattering of showers on Tuesday, with a more general wet area tracking somewhere across Wales and the SW during the morning, the exact location uncertain, but mid and south Wales and the SW Midlands (Cotswolds) could be in for a wet Tuesday morning. A drier afternoon but still the odd shower in places, and another cool day, but at least it should be a lot less windy on Tuesday, highs only managing 13 or 14c. With clearing skies and less wind a chilly night to follow, down to 5c in places.[/size][/font]
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On Wednesday although the by now filling low is still sat over the North Sea feeding cool NW winds, a ridge of high pressure is trying to move into the west but not really succeeding. The proximity of the ridge damping down the shower activity, although still some coming into NW Wales and through the Cheshire Gap to the NW Midlands especially, one of those days where some areas get a pleasant dry and bright day though! Cool again on Wednesday, highs between 13 and 15c. These hints of a ridge flatten on Thursday with further Atlantic fronts bringing some rain at times, although probably not so heavy this bout. A milder sector of air on Thursday, but highs no better than average reaching 15 to 18c with a keen westerly breeze. Still a rather unsettled look to the charts even on Friday but with higher pressure close to our south. Rain fronts in the vicinity of the UK though on Friday, so still the chance of some rain or showers in places, but many of us could escape with a generally dry day, but still on the cool side.[/size][/font]
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Next weekend is quite interesting as the ex hurricane Humberto gets absorbed into the polar jet, and as it does injects some warm and humid air in our direction! Good signs then of high pressure over the UK next weekend, with low pressure out west of Ireland dragging up this warm air from the sub-Tropical SW. Still a little too far off to be a certain prediction, but next weekend potentially dry and warm with some sunshine, and temperatures may be into the low 70's F (above 21c) come this time next week (next Sunday afternoon). [/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
[attachment=185107:PPVE89 964 L Mon cool windy showery.png][attachment=185108:viewimage 200mph jet.png][attachment=185115:viewimage v cool windy showery Mon.png][attachment=185109:PPVJ89 rain threat Tue.png][attachment=185110:viewimage wet Tue morning SW.png][attachment=185111:PPVL89 Wed cool drier localised showers.png][attachment=185112:PPVO89 rain times THu.png][attachment=185113:metslp.120 next spell rain THu.png][attachment=185114:ecmt850.096 further rain band Thu.png][attachment=185116:ecmt850.168 ex Humberto dry warm weekend.png][attachment=185117:h850t850eu ex humberto injects warmth our way weeknd.png][attachment=185118:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion unsettels rain times all week WW.png][attachment=185119:prmslWest~Midlands settling weekend.png][attachment=185120:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
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