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Weather guide Monday 9th to Sunday 15th September 2013

TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable, some rain or showers and equally some fine, dry days; cool start, warming mid week[/b][/size][/font]


[font=arial][size=3]Warm, even some very warm weather last week, 27.2c at Coventry on Wednesday, 25.2c near Aberystwyth and 23.7c at Lampeter. Cooler air infiltrated West Wales during Thursday and the Midlands by Friday which was 11c cooler on than Thursday, a maximum of just 13.3c at Bablake School, Coventry. Then Saturday was very cool for West Wales,14.3c the 'high' here at Llanwnnen, and a decidedly cold 10.6c at Capel Curig, Snowdonia. Some rain or showers too over recent days for all of us, although not as wet northern Britain has been lately. Last week's anticipated Iberian high in fact turned out to be a cold pool cut off low over the UK, hence the warmth has got no nearer than Scandinavia where it reached 25c in places on Saturday.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Heavy showers have been lingering over Cardigan Bay coasts since Saturday evening, giving 2 inches rain to the Barmouth area, while some other parts of West Wales have remained generally dry. Further heavy showers this afternoon across West Wales, the chance of a clap of thunder in a few spots, however some places more inland escaping, and a mostly dry and bright afternoon for the Midlands, just the odd scattered shower here. Highs on Sunday a cool 14c for Cardigan Bay coasts, 16c for brighter inland lowland Wales, and a pleasant 18c over the Midlands. Showers dying out tonight and with clearing skies a chilly night, lowest readings around 5c, so not quite a ground frost. Relatively low pressure again over the UK for Monday so further showers for many areas, Wales especially likely to see some heavy ones, a rather cloudy day too with limited sunny intervals. A decidedly cool day, especially where there are plentiful of showers. A chill NW breeze on Monday highs just 13 to 16c, well below the September average (18 or 19c). High pressure is ridging into NW Britain on Tuesday, whilst a low pressure system develops over the North Sea this giving a cool northerly wind over Wales and England. Wales has a mostly dry day with sunny spells on Tuesday, most of the Midlands likewise, although rain affecting Eastern England could push into the east of this region as we go through the day. For most though, largley dry on Tuesday, cool though, highs between 15 and 18c.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Any rain dies out over the Midlands on Tuesday night, with clearer skies out west, a chilly night lows 6 to 9c. The ridge has extended across the UK for Wednesday, set to be one of the better days of the week. A dry and bright day, some decent sunny spells, warmer too, temperatures up to at least the average at 17 to 20c. Clearing skies and a rather cool night to follow. High pressure does not last as the ridge topples away south during Thursday permitting fronts to cross northern UK. The Midlands could well manage another mainly dry day out of it however, while more cloud and a little light rain or drizzle at times for Wales. A warm airmass for Thursday, with moist, rather humid Atlantic air, so given any sunny breaks the temperature will shoot up. Sunny intervals should occur for at least the Midlands and where the potential is there for 24c to be reached, while more generally expect 19 to 22c. We should still be within the warm sector through Thursday night, a mild one no lower than 13c, and by which time a more definite rain band could be strung out across Wales and the Midlands, so quite a wet night in places, pulses of heavy rain possible.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]This rain does not herald a full blown Atlantic unsettled spell as yet though, as the low is centred well to our north in the vicinity of Iceland and high pressure is never so far to our SW. For Friday, the cold front attempts to clear through taking further rain across many places. Should the front develop a wave it could slow down and produce quite a wet day on Friday, or - it may travel though more swiftly with a brighening fresher afternoon, at least for more northern parts of our regions. The usual caveats then applicable to Friday and the weekend, but another transient ridge could give a fine if coolish Saturday, followed by a trough, some cloud, wind and rain for next Sunday - changeable in other words![/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=184445:ecmt850.048 Showery cool Mon.png][attachment=184446:ecmt850.072 LE HW m dry cool Tue.png][attachment=184447:PPVJ89 m dry cool Tue.png][attachment=184455:h850t850eu warmer dry bright Wed.png][attachment=184456:metslp.120 R topples TR into W.png][attachment=184448:h850t850eu m dry Thu.png][attachment=184449:ecmt850.120 WS Thu some drizzle west.png][attachment=184450:ecmt850.144 cooler drying Fri.png][attachment=184451:ukprec wet in places Fri or clearing sooner.png][attachment=184452:ecmt850.168 fine Sat rain Sun.png][attachment=184453:h850t850eu fine R Sat r cool.png][attachment=184457:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=184458:prcpWarwickshire low spikes not so wet a week.png][attachment=184459:prmslAbertawe~-~Swansea.png][/size][/font]


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