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Weather guide Sunday 17th to Monday 23rd June 2013

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TonyH

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[b]Headline: Warm with some thundery showers to mid week, then much cooler, unsettled next weekend[/b]

[font=arial][size=3]The weather over the past week has been quite a shock to the system for us in West Wales,with the abrupt change to cool, rather cloudy and at times wet weather, following on from the previous week of warmth and almost unbroken sunshine! Frequent rain and showers since Wednesday has deposited 25mm in the rain gauge here, although far from a washout of a week. Coventry was the wettest place in the UK on Friday as a train of heavy showers and thunderstorms tracked in a narrow line through the Midlands giving over 20mm in the afternoon alone, whilst nearby Rugby and Warwick escaped with just a millimetre or so! A disappointingly cool as well as wet week, for a time on both Thursday and Saturday afternoon's the temperature was below 10c here- at least the nights have been milder with all the cloud, missing those ISS passovers though. Another mixed week ahead with no definite weather patterns emerging, some dry fine days, but rain or showers on others, so again far from a washout of a week at least, even if we will not be seeing any settled dry and wam spell in the making just yet. Some fine margins with our weather this week, as slight shifts of slow-moving weather fronts could make all the difference, say between a wet and dry day, but we will try our best..[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]On Sunday low pressure will fail to make inroads into the UK remaining to our SW, it's slow-moving fronts will however make it a mainly cloudy afternoon for West Wales and the South Midlands, although the rain should be restricted to South Wales and the far SW Midlands. Sunny intervals and just an isolated shower for the bulk of the Midlands this afternoon. Very cool in the rain for SW Wales highs of just 14c, but 18c for the brighter North Midlands, so a pleasant afternoon here. During this evening rain may extend into NW Wales too, and overnight further rain at times for West Wales, some heavier bursts in places. On Monday there is a heat low over France but relatively high pressure over northern UK, we should just about escape the rain and showers on Monday which should be a fine and dry day for the majority, just the chance of some rain skirting the South Wales coast during the afternoon. Sunshine breaks through the cloud for most, but not a plain sunny day, more a case of sunny intervals, feeling rather humid with a gentle east breeze and highs around 21c 70f, so not a bad day on Monday. However, even at this stage in the forecasting, Monday could possibly see greater advancement north of the southern England front, so something to bear in mind is that it may go pear-shaped with some rain affecting more of us, but odds are on a decent day. Clearing skies to follow so hopefully an opportunity to view the ISS once more (there is a very bright pass around 22:30). Good news for Tuesday is that the warm, humid Continental air will be advecting NW over England and Wales. A front will be introducing this warm, humid air, and so plenty of cloud and even some spots of rain during the morning, the cloud should break to sunny intervals through Tuesday afternoon, feeling quite sultry, and in turn this sunshine will be setting off a scattering of showers by evening, even with some thunder for one or two spots. Maxima a warm 21 to 24c, A mild, rather sticky night to follow as any showers die out, no lower than 15c for SW Wales and the South Midlands. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]Forecasting is especially problematic for Wednesday and Thursday with a ridge of high pressure trying to push into the UK, but may be thwarted by the still present heat low over the near Continent. The model concensus now though seems that for Wednesday the shallow low makes it over to England thus maintaining the supply of warm and humid air, especially over the Midlands where 27c (80f) is not out of the question, cooler at 20c or so for Cardigan Bay where there will be a pleasant onshore breeze. Sunny spells on Wednesday, but this heat would no doubt be setting off torrential, thundery showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon and evening. Incidentally the Low Countries could well be hitting the 90's f on Wednesday! Earlier model output would have brought us a cooling ridge of high pressure by Wednesday but this scenario can now largely be discounted in favour of the humid, potentially thundery one outlined above. For Wednesday night, and the cooler air starts to push east, this though likely to develop a trough over Wales where it could potentially be a very wet night. Much cooler then on Thursday, as our warm, thundery low is headed for Scandinavia, with a weak Atlantic ridge coming into the west. A cool northerly flow on Thursday with showers, more especially over the Midlands where they will be heavy at times. A big drop in temperatures from Wednesday, highs between 15 and 19c only.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]More of a defined westerly Atlantic pattern to end the week, Friday promises a transient ridge of high pressure, a largely dry and bright day but none too warm, highs just 16 to 19c. This ridge is being followed hard on its heels by low pressure which moves into northern Britain on Saturday, and its fronts may spoil the end of Friday for West Wales. Low pressure over or close by throughout next weekend, and a cool air mass, showers or longer spells of rain, with sunny intervals between times, highs probably in the 15 to 19c range, so very disappointing for late June, and by which time the days will have started to get shorter! [/size][/font]
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Apologies charts a little jumbled and some duplicated! Too much trouble to sort out!

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