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Glastonbury Forecast 5 - 31st May

J10

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[b]Forecast Number 5 - Issued 31st May[/b]


This forecast will continue the theme of adding more and more information as we get closer to the time.

[b]CFS forecasts - issued Weekly on NetWeather (June and July)[/b]

[b]Pressure[/b]

June has a big +ve anomaly to the West/ South west of the UK, and this covering much of the UK and running through to Scandinavia.

July in contrast has more has a mini trough over Northern UK with pressure around or just below normal or the UK (within 1mb of average), there remains High Pressure to the West of the UK and also over Scandinavia. Both also have -ve pressure anomalies to the north of the UK.

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:172909] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:172908]

[b]Temps[/b]

Both months have temps above average for much of the UK with the exception of the SE corner, temps above average across the UK, between 0 and +1 for the Glastonbury region for both months, with bigger positive anomalies for Northern parts of the UK.

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:172910] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:172907]

[b]Rainfall[/b]

[sharedmedia=core:attachments:172912] [sharedmedia=core:attachments:172906]

June shows much of the UK below average in terms of rainfall, with Glastonbury is on the edge of the 70-80% rainfall areas, however up to 130% in the Midlands.
July shows a much wetter picture, above average for the UK, mostly around 110-130% of rainfall, but closer to 170-180% in the Midlands.

It is worth restating the CFS tends to overstate rainfall in the Midlands, as rainfall in concentrated there due to the CFS lack of detail this far out. So don't take this as read that the Midlands will be wetter than other parts, however there is a clear pattern of above average rainfall over the UK and therefore fro Glastonbury around this time.

[b]Summary[/b]

The current outlook is for quite decent condition generally for June, temps above average, and higher pressure than normal.

As we move into July, there is a higher risk of less settled conditions and this obviously impacts the Glastonbury festival right at the end of June, however the large rainfall anomaly forecast doesn't quite tie in with the pressure charts, as the pressure is only slightly below normal, worth keeping an eye on.

[b]CFS forecasts - issued Daily on Meteociel (June and July)[/b]

These have normally been based on the 18Hz run for consistency.These take in the forecasts on the Meteociel site issued 24/5 to 30/5 May, so 7 runs in total, however the run issue on 25th May was not available for June.

Looking at June first, at Ground level (SLP), 1 of the runs, has a deep trough over South Western UK, 2 have pressure just above normal, and 3 well above normal, temps are generally above average around 1c, more in the north, rainfall generally below average for the south, a bit above average for the Midlands.

[font=arial]General thoughts for July, again one of the runs has a deep trough over the UK, 2 had pressure around average and 4 have pressure above/ well above average, with either a HP over the UK and a ridge of High Pressure. [/font]temps are generally above average around 1-2c, more in the north, rainfall generally average to below average in the Glastonbury,areas, but above average on a number of runs for East Wales into the Midlands.

Most of the runs are generally quite good, but there have been some runs which would give decidedly unsettled weather hopefully the majority will be correct.


[b]Raw CFS forecasts - issued Daily on NetWeather (19th - 30th June)[/b]

[b]Pressure / Synoptics [/b]
Date........... Runup to Festival ..................................................Start / During Festival
24/05/2013.Mostly High Pressure............................................. Ridge / High Pressure over most of UK
25/05/2013 LP TO NE, HP building from SW Settled start.........LP perhaps pushing in from E for weekend
26/05/2013 Battle LP to NE, HP to SW.......................................Battle continues, LP perhaps winning with NW winds
27/05/2013 Battles between LP and HP.....................................Troughs over UK, rather unsettled
29/05/2013 HP generally over UK..............................................Gradually pressure reducing over time
30/05/2013 Deep Trough over UK for a week before festival.....LP to NE slowly being edged away by HP ridging up from SW

[b]Rainfall / Temperatures [/b]

Date...........Temps..........................................................Rainfall
24/05/2013 Orange/Deep Orange.................................perhaps a little rain run-up, mostly dry festival, odd showers possible
25/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange................................... Showery at times, perhaps more general rain weekend possibly missing to south
26/05/2013 Green / Yellow.............................................Showery build-up, bands of rain pushing across during festival, not washout, but quite wet generally
27/05/2013 Yellow to Orange.........................................Fronts pushing in from time to time, a bit of a washout
29/05/2013 Yellow/Light Orange...................................Odd showers to start, perhaps more general rain over weekend
30/05/2013 Yellow to Orange........................................Wet run-up to festival, mostly dry for festival itself

Unfortunately the forecast summary I did for the 28/5/13 got mislaid.

None of the above daily forecasts are brilliant, 1 has a mostly dry festival after a dry build-up, 3 go for a showery set-up and 2 go for wet/washout conditions.

[b]UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Jun 2013 to Saturday 29 Jun 2013: (Met Office)[/b]
There are currently no strong or clear signals for any particular weather pattern to dominate through the rest of June. However, temperatures are likely to be near, or a little below average for the time of year. This is likely a result of having unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures for the time of year surrounding the United Kingdom.

[b]Overall Summary [/b]
Early indications now give mixed messages, June still looks quite good generally, but July does not look as good with some of the above forecasts, and the daily forecast for the festival period itself do not that promising, a week or two earlier might be better. Still a long way off and things will continue to change.

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