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Weather guide Spring Bank Holiday to Sunday 2nd June 2013

TonyH

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[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Rather cool; unsettled with rain or showers, drier to end the week[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]As the cold Spring draws to a close this week we look forward to Summer... In fact it will end up the coldest Spring since at least 1962 in the Central England Temperature series that goes back to 1659![/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Last week saw notably cool conditions for late May with snow returning to northern hills, while the rest of us saw hail showers and strong cold winds on Thursday and Friday. Coventry and Warwickshire managed only 9c maximum on Friday- the coldest late May day since 1948, while on both Friday and Saturday nights lows of -2c for parts of Ceredigion, the lowest temperatures recorded this far into the year, and with an air frost even on the Carmarthenshire coast! The cold records keep tumbling this Spring, although at least maximum temperatures have recovered to around average levels this weekend thanks to a ridge of high pressure and plenty of strong sunshine. Last week was dry with the showers not adding up to much in the rain gauges. Unfortunately the generally cool theme sees out May with rain or showers at times too this coming week.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]A lovely sunny and warm feeling afternoon on Sunday, parts of the Midlands close to 20c, while cooler for West Wales coasts at 14c. Another largely clear and cold night, West Wales should just avoid a air frost as cloud and wind associated with a front over Ireland spreads over by dawn, but a widespread grass frost lows generally 2 to 4c. Turning unsettled from the west during Bank Holiday Monday although the rain should hold off until evening for the Midlands as the front stalls over West Wales in the afternoon which will be cool, wet and quite windy here. Highs just 12c over wet West Wales but 17c for the East Midlands where it stays brighter longer. The rain clears Wales overnight Monday whilst edging into the Midlands, most of it light though here. Lows of 5 to 7c. The occluded front bringing the rain develops it's own low on Tuesday somewhere over southern England so that means a very unsettled day with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy and perhaps thundery at times. There should be a few sunny intervals but with all the cloud and showery rain, a cool day in prospect, maxima just 13 to 15c. The MIdlands in particular could end up with a lot of rain through to Tuesday night.[/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]This low is still over England or at least very close by on Wednesday which has a cool NE or north wind developing along with some more showery rain for many places, highs betwen 13 and 15c, although if it brightens a touch warmer for the East Midlands 17c possible here. Potentially rather wet in places then again on Wednesday. The models have been teasing with hints of a ridge of high pressure drying things out later in the week, however this will be a struggle with weather fronts travelling about the high crossing at least northern UK. A ridge of sorts on Thursday, so a drier, brighter day in store, although a few showers will affect some areas, especially the Midlands in the afternoon, but not everywhere, and we should all see decent sunny spells. Highs on Thursday 14 to 16c for West Wales where the cool NW breeze is most evident, to 18 or 19c for the Midlands. Some of us then getting a mostly dry, better day on Thursday. Clearing skies and any showers dying out during Thursday night, a touch of ground frost in places as air temperatures fall to 3 to 6c. [/size][/font]

[font=arial][size=3]As usual things more difficult to ascertain by the end of the week, and we are taking a much more probabilistic view. A nose of warm sector air may be over us on Friday and potentially a warm day with a few showers and light westerly winds, cloudier for West Wales and sunnier for the Midlands in such a set up, indeed sea fog could plague western beaches on Friday. Disappointingly cool for West Wales with the cloud cover just 14c or so, while the Midlands could hit 20c - it must be stressed though that Friday's scenario may not play out in exactly this way, and it could be that the ridge exerts more strongly giving more of us a warm and sunny day, or conversely that Atlantic fronts are more prolific bringing cloud, some rain and lower temperatures than are anticipated for Friday. The favoured option for next weekend is that high pressure will be fairly close to our west with a rather cool NE breeze over the UK. Hopefully then a mostly dry if not especially warm weekend, and if anywhere catches a shower most likely the Midlands. [/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][attachment=172374:PPVG89 v cool wet WW Mon.png][attachment=172375:PPVJ89 potentially wet Tue.png][attachment=172376:ecmt850.072 Sec L Tue showers lsr.png][attachment=172377:PPVO89 R to W Thu few showers.png][attachment=172378:ecmt850.120 R attempt Thu few showers.png][attachment=172379:h850t850eu R attempt drier warmer Thu.png][attachment=172380:h850t850eu WS few showers Fri.png][attachment=172381:ecmt850.120 warmest day Fri.png][attachment=172382:ecmt850.168 weekend HW LE m dry coolish.png][attachment=172381:ecmt850.120 warmest day Fri.png][attachment=172382:ecmt850.168 weekend HW LE m dry coolish.png][attachment=172383:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=172385:viewimage.png][attachment=172382:ecmt850.168 weekend HW LE m dry coolish.png][/size][/font]


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The more widespread sunshine and warmth scenario played out today!

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